HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/02/first-call-for-significant-but-not.html Nice informative write-up as usual! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Still thinking 4-7 down here but would not be shocked to get 2-4; season total thus far around 6.5” Rain totals for January were 6” alone; that type of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 hour ago, dendrite said: I mean this is life at d7-10. Most of these models have relatively similar physics and schemes. A slight change in time with s/w spacing/strength and your consistent bomb becomes a weaker event or vice versa. We had storms seemingly coming out of nowhere Feb 15. But people have to expect guidance to change as we get closer no matter how consistent modeling is in the LR. So it really comes down to expectations. There’s multiple threats on the table so making a specific storm thread a little early isn’t a bad thing…it cuts down on the confusion in the monthly disco thread. Yeah, still days for changes coming too. Hard to lock in Day 5-6 solutions as the end result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Speaking of changes, will have to watch to see if a trend continues for lingering snows in NNE. GFS really slows down the exit and gets 1.50"< near MA/NH border. 3 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said: OKX throwing out first numbers, high end advisory seems reasonable. 4-6/4-8 for most of the state looks good. Wtf 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just catching up on overnight…Euro was pretty meh and that’s a concern. GFS still looks pretty solid, 06z NAM was still garbage. Looks like RGEM bumped north and Icon was pretty much status quo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Just catching up on overnight…Euro was pretty meh and that’s a concern. GFS still looks pretty solid, 06z NAM was still garbage. Looks like RGEM bumped north and Icon was pretty much status quo. Imo…Euro doesn’t carry no where near the weight it used to…JAM(just another model) now. Is it still major league, sure. But the GFS is just as good now. GFS has been pretty steady with 6-8” for a lot of SNE…I think that’s still doable at the moment. Unless things fall apart..which is always a distinct possibility this winter for sure. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 6z Euro got colder in many places. Still way south of the gfs. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 6z Euro got colder in many places. Still way south of the gfs. That’s 6-8” here…pretty much what the GFS shows. If that’s what it ends up being, I’m fine with that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Euro looked pretty good for CT. Maybe even up to the pike with a bit of ML banding…but I’m def gonna want to see a stronger shortwave ejecting on the 12z runs today. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That’s 6-8” here…pretty much what the GFS shows. If that’s what it ends up being, I’m fine with that. I will take 1-3 here 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro looked pretty good for CT. Maybe even up to the pike with a bit of ML banding…but I’m def gonna want to see a stronger shortwave ejecting on the 12z runs today. Lol…nothing is strong for us here this season, but everywhere else it’s monster storms all over the f’n country. And then we get the junk. Sad. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, WinterWolf said: Lol…nothing is strong for us here this season, but everywhere else it’s monster storms all over the f’n country. And then we get the junk. Sad. Just the pattern this season. Sierras get 7 foot storms. We have trouble even getting 7” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I will take 1-3 here I will take my first measurable snow. We are heading into March and this is the first system ive even tracked. This winter hasn't existed. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 6 hours ago, powderfreak said: The weather does not care who starts what or when. So true... its just the idiot lead statement in the thread that needs work 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Just the pattern this season. Sierras get 7 foot storms. We have trouble even getting 7” Yes sir…but it blows for us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, UnitedWx said: So true... its just the idiot lead statement in the thread that needs work Exactly. Just puts a bad taste in one’s mouth from the get go…and what we feared looks to happen. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, WinterWolf said: Yes sir…but it blows for us. You take your 2” and like it! Lol. Has been the pattern all winter, models in the 7-10 range show favorable results for us and then gradually shift north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I will take 1-3 here of what, rain? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, Torch Tiger said: of what, rain? Snow Hoping for more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Is that in millimeters? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Is that in millimeters? That was Ray’s season. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12WX Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Eh….trending towards what’s the point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 7 minutes ago, Chris12WX said: Eh….trending towards what’s the point? Could help extend my ski season a bit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Could help extend my ski season a bit. I’ll take it . I mean what else you gonna do 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I’ll take it . I mean what else you gonna do There’s still some upside to this one too. Get that weenie E-W band going and there could be some nice surprises. But we don’t want this shortwave coming in any weaker that’s for sure. Would feel a lot better about ticking this a little more potent at 12z. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 6z Euro/EPS ticking in the other direction. Something has to give 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: There’s still some upside to this one too. Get that weenie E-W band going and there could be some nice surprises. But we don’t want this shortwave coming in any weaker that’s for sure. Would feel a lot better about ticking this a little more potent at 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: There’s still some upside to this one too. Get that weenie E-W band going and there could be some nice surprises. But we don’t want this shortwave coming in any weaker that’s for sure. Would feel a lot better about ticking this a little more potent at 12z. Will do you have any Gut feeling on how this trends or what the goal posts are regarding its “intactness” upon approach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 27 minutes ago, Chris12WX said: Eh….trending towards what’s the point? Pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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