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Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat


George001
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23 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

If this thing gets sheared out anymore than was shown on the 00z gfs we’re talking like 2-4” for most.

 

On 2/22/2023 at 6:25 PM, ORH_wxman said:

I’m letting George keep this thread under the condition that he’s banned if the storm shits the bed. 

 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don’t hate this being a touch south right now with the stout SE ridge. I’m a little worried about a weaker shortwave, but these often come in more potent as we get closer. 

I was thinking that too…south is ok at the moment…gives a lil wiggle room for any trends north a couple days from now. 

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2 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

This is still a 6” storm? Judging by the last page of posts by the usual suspects you’d think a Rainer is on the way. Yikes. 

I don't know but that's what I'm hoping for, I think I'm in a good spot. I've never gone a full season without using the blower even in the rattiest years.

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2 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I'll be happy with 6 and use the snowblower

Yeah, it is a bit disappointing after looking good for 12-18 yesterday, but things change. Looks more like 6-12 now, probably closer to 6. Half a foot with another chance a few days later? I’ll take that any day. It looks like the blocking got weaker, so we might need to wait a bit for the really high ceiling events (3/4 could be a big one, but way too early to know). The MJO is expected to go nuts in the long range with blocking lingering around (not south based like December). 

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3 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yeah, it is a bit disappointing after looking good for 12-18 yesterday, but things change. Looks more like 6-12 now, probably closer to 6. Half a foot with another chance a few days later? I’ll take that any day. It looks like the blocking got weaker, so we might need to wait a bit for the really high ceiling events (3/4 could be a big one, but way too early to know). The MJO is expected to go nuts in the long range with blocking lingering around (not south based like December). 

Just don’t start the thread for the next threat please. 

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Storm threads should have a specific tag that needs mod approval before it can be posted. Unless it’s a met or maybe a few of the hobbyists here that know their stuff.

 

Edit: No hate on anyone, I mean look at my username. Maybe not everyone should have the right to start a storm thread. That’s all I’m saying.

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57 minutes ago, NotSureWeather said:

Storm threads should have a specific tag that needs mod approval before it can be posted. Unless it’s a met or maybe a few of the hobbyists here that know their stuff.

 

Edit: No hate on anyone, I mean look at my username. Maybe not everyone should have the right to start a storm thread. That’s all I’m saying.

The weather does not care who starts what or when.

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14 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

40" was viable, albeit veryunlikely. 20" was even more viable if the NAO wasn't misdiagnosed inside of 4 days. I'm sorry...calling weather enthusiasts expressing dissapointment over that missed opportunity "stupid "implies you are probably the one that needs a break.

Haven't posted since this became disconnected from the northern stream, but agree with the disappointment. The 2/22 12z Euro was a flash in the pan for seasonal redemption, but notwithstanding there was a solid day of guidance hitting double digits for much of SNE that was realistic given the setup.

Looking at tonight's 0z Euro... it's a really good shortwave, and even digs slightly better and slightly more negative tilt by 6z-12z Tuesday than earlier run. Doesn't reflect at the surface, but wouldn't take much to get this more amplified over the weekend.

Is there some irony that this same shortwave is bringing blizzard conditions to southern California, but won't in New England? Fitting capstone for this season.

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4 hours ago, weathafella said:

This is silly talk.  Start threads when applicable.  There will event.  Luck is horseshit In weather regarding threads starting and threats dampening.  And this can still be a good storm.  

I mean this is life at d7-10. Most of these models have relatively similar physics and schemes. A slight change in time with s/w spacing/strength and your consistent bomb becomes a weaker event or vice versa. We had storms seemingly coming out of nowhere Feb 15. But people have to expect guidance to change as we get closer no matter how consistent modeling is in the LR. So it really comes down to expectations. There’s multiple threats on the table so making a specific storm thread a little early isn’t a bad thing…it cuts down on the confusion in the monthly disco thread. 

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