ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Icon a bit less impressive than 18z I didn’t really see much change at all..maybe the 1” area shrunk just a smidge 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: RGEM still weak sauce. As a model since 2015 yes. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 6 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: RGEM still weak sauce. That model is a giant POS! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Is this the dependable recurring theme of the noir film where we only consider models that enable our denial? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Is this the dependable recurring theme of the noir film where we only consider models that enable our denial? Yes. My thoughts are the second and third tier models only gain relevance when they start being supported by those in the major leagues. But we acknowledge their depiction is plausible albeit probably not likely to that extremity of sucktitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Is this the dependable recurring theme of the noir film where we only consider models that enable our denial? Nope. No denial here Tip. But I don’t think the RGEM is any good..thing has sucked since it’s great run in 2015. I wouldn’t be worried about any psycho crap here. Until the major league globals go to shit, I’m not buying an 84 hr NAM or minor league RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 GFS looks like it’s going to be south of 18z too. Def a south trend so far tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 I'm resigned to this being NBD...moderate ceiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS looks like it’s going to be south of 18z too. Def a south trend so far tonight. Show me 3/4. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS looks like it’s going to be south of 18z too. Def a south trend so far tonight. Block doing its work… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 0z GFS is 4mb weaker then 18z at the surface so it would be south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Block doing its work… Not really...if it were doing its work, it would retard the flow enough to get some level of PV ingest. This POS is just shearing out- 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not really...if it were doing its work, it would retard the flow enough to get some level of PV ingest. This POS is just shearing out- The shortwave ejected a bit weaker this run which I think is the main culprit. I didn’t see a huge difference in the block this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not really...if it were doing its work, it would retard the flow enough to get some level of PV ingest. This POS is just shearing out- Lol…well doing it somewhat then. But I’ll gladly take 4-6, or 6-8 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not really...if it were doing its work, it would retard the flow enough to get some level of PV ingest. This POS is just shearing out- Yeah, this is pretty much what’s happening. It’s just shearing the whole thing out to a weak mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Snow took about a 20% haircut on this run. It was evident pretty early. Never really got any intense stuff going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 The ceiling on this is turning into a low end/borderline warning event IMO. If this thing gets sheared out anymore than was shown on the 00z gfs we’re talking like 2-4” for most. Call me a weenie or whatever, but this has turned into a pretty disappointing system given where it was 2 days ago. I think it’s okay to admit that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The ceiling on this is turning into a low end/borderline warning event IMO. If this thing gets sheared out anymore than was shown on the 00z gfs we’re talking like 2-4” for most. Call me a weenie or whatever, but this has turned into a pretty disappointing system given where it was 2 days ago. I think it’s okay to admit that. It’s fine to admit that, but I never bought in to the 18+ amounts either at that range. I’m at 4.3” for the season to date, so I’ll take 4” if that’s what it ends up being, cuz thats as much as I’ve seen in the last 3 months combined. But Let’s see where we are come Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: The ceiling on this is turning into a low end/borderline warning event IMO. If this thing gets sheared out anymore than was shown on the 00z gfs we’re talking like 2-4” for most. Call me a weenie or whatever, but this has turned into a pretty disappointing system given where it was 2 days ago. I think it’s okay to admit that. The weaker system is probably going to bring rain to many now on that next system next weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: The weaker system is probably going to bring rain to many now on that next system next weekend. 2022-23 winter rolllllllllls on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: The weaker system is probably going to bring rain to many now on that next system next weekend. Yeah, it looks like that one trended north a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Canadian cut back from 12z, especially east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Canadian cut back from 12z, especially east As we like to say, the trend is your friend, except when it's not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, George001 said: Yeah, it looks like that one trended north a bit more. What trended north ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 I'll be happy with 6 and use the snowblower 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, DavisStraight said: I'll be happy with 6 and use the snowblower Yup. Me too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: What trended north ? My bad for bringing up the follow-up system next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: What trended north ? He’s talking about the system 8 days from now. Lol… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, MJO812 said: What trended north ? 3/4 looked north at first to me, but I didn’t analyze the model correctly. It wasn’t really north, it looked like it at first but became kind of strung out and disorganized as it moved west to east. Kind of like a stronger version of the 28th threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 I don’t hate this being a touch south right now with the stout SE ridge. I’m a little worried about a weaker shortwave, but these often come in more potent as we get closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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