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Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat


George001
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1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

We are not the same

We are on opposite ends of the spectrum, but you are just as much of a weenie as I am. It’s similar in concept to the horseshoe theory. You like warmer weather, I like cold and snow. Neither of us are particularly knowledgeable about meteorology, and there is a lot of bias in both of our posts. There isn’t anything wrong with being a weenie who doesn’t understand the physical mechanisms driving our weather, but you gotta own up to it man. 

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2 minutes ago, George001 said:

We are on opposite ends of the spectrum, but you are just as much of a weenie as I am. It’s similar in concept to the horseshoe theory. You like warmer weather, I like cold and snow. Neither of us are particularly knowledgeable about meteorology, and there is a lot of bias in both of our posts. There isn’t anything wrong with being a weenie who doesn’t understand the physical mechanisms driving our weather, but you gotta own up to it man. 

I do not like warm weather at all, I’m the biggest snow guy going.  You have no idea of my background.  I have a minor in atmospheric science and it was my major for two years. I’ve been doing this for 20 years plus, we are not the same

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I've been warning ... correction vector is pointed toward less. 

I'm grudgingly accepting the prospect for more, and this is just one run and all that blah blah-blah blah. But, this is still facing certain large scale circulation type challenges...  Adding that too this aspect of "model magnification" we've referred to in the past, sort of makes this a smoking gun for a "top 10 bamboozle" event. We'll see

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13 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

Lol you kind of get the worst of both worlds on that Euro, most of the region misses out on the WAA thump then the confluence shunts the coastal low to the southeast. NNE is smoking cirrrus. 

See ...this is why the Euro model is such an asshole now.

First, it takes a hint and blows it out of proportion...  and creates this charming sociopathic argument to it's peers to join in, which they do to a greater extent that faithful afternoon.  But, now that the great conning narcissist has everyone deceive by guile, it leaves them in a convincing lurch: "Suckerrrrs". 

What jerk!

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It's certainly a concern that euro showed that at 12z. I am trying to keep an eye on the big picture tho. The original blockbuster runs should probably be viewed under the same lens as this scraper outcome today. It's just a single run and I will not be concerned (or vice versa when it showed the bomb) until a trend develops. Right now there is an undeniable trend away from a massive storm tho, toward a more down to earth solution. That is true. With that being said, it would not be wise to overreact to this single run. Stick with the ensembles at the time frame. It's just far too early to be concerned considering the modeling showing plowable snow for the last few days. I'm sticking with the idea of widespread significant snow until we get more runs in. Sticking with consistency until we know more. 

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Just now, qg_omega said:

I do not like warm weather at all, I’m the biggest snow guy going.  You have no idea of my background

What the hell….. you are always hyping up warmth like Torch Tiger, and your forecasts are often horribly wrong. Even when they are right, they are right for the wrong reasons (saw a lot of that this year). If you actually like snow, that’s sad. If you actually believe the shit you post this hobby must make you miserable. There are some posters who have been negative about this winter in the east (Allsnow, Pope, Raindance, etc) but they actually have sound reasoning behind why they believed this winter would suck, and they have called for big snow in the past. You just always forecast warmth, and got lucky this year. If you love snow I have no idea what your endgame is here.

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5 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The finger wagging by some is kind of dumb at this point. This is not far from turning into a 2-4/3-6 deal for many, and it’s okay to admit that is disappointing.

 

Its also okay to admit this has trended decidedly worse in the last 36 hours.

 

Not sure why some have to pretend everything is awesome, given where we were 

12z euro 

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