CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 GFS is basically a SWFE. You'll probably dry out the DGZ quick. 6-10 would be max if I had to guess on GFS despite QPF. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Lol congrats on a foot. All in favor of changing TFlizz’s name from TauntonBlizzard2013, to Taunt”meh”Bizzard2013 say I. It would be so appropriate, and fits him perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: All in favor of changing TFlizz’s name from TauntonBlizzard2013, to Taunt”meh”Bizzard2013 say I. It would be so appropriate, and fits him perfectly. wolfhiss.jpeg 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 I'm so jealous I'm stuck on 0.2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: Icon was over an inch of QPF for much of SNE. Looked better than 3-6 Agree ( not about the use of the ICON lol) the bigger totals than that. I was just musing a response to the other poster seeming to 'grouse' a 3-6 idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: All in favor of changing TFlizz’s name from TauntonBlizzard2013, to Taunt”meh”Bizzard2013 say I. It would be so appropriate, and fits him perfectly. It could be 8” there but calling it an annoyance seems a little detached from reality. But everyone has their own grading system so I’ll let him do his thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I'm so jealous I'm stuck on 0.2 Take a quick road trip out of BK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GFS is basically a SWFE. You'll probably dry out the DGZ quick. 6-10 would be max if I had to guess on GFS despite QPF. Despite sim radar looking like a pounding, you probably aren't getting corresponding rates with this sounding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: Despite sim radar looking like a pounding, you probably aren't getting corresponding rates with this sounding. Take em down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Take em down? Don't use 10:1 stuff is what I mean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Despite sim radar looking like a pounding, you probably aren't getting corresponding rates with this sounding. What does 90 and 93 hours look like? The 6 hourly QPF between 96 and 102 is like a tenth of an inch anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 One of the above is a more useful forecasting heuristic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: What does 90 and 93 hours look like? The 6 hourly QPF between 96 and 102 is like a tenth of an inch anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 90 and 93 look good. What I meant is that I think we can shave off some snow amounts when the good lift sort of shuts down. Typical SWFE stuff. You may have lighter rates where it's colder, but seems like when you lose the DGZ lift, it's always banded or light stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 BTW, that sounding was in metro west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 59 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: I totally disagree in this terrible winter people should be happy we're getting plowable snow, don't know what to tell you on this one. We had a few runs go bezerk over 130+ hours out. There should be no investment in a model outcome at that time frame. It was never a completely viable outcome. It showed a historic blizzard at far too early a time frame, not sure how it can be a disappointment. Agreed. Even in a great 100 plus inch winter no one should complain about just a 3 to 6 event. It's foolish to believe an insane QPF output past even just a few days. Lets just get some happy little winter weather and enjoy it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 too early to lock in 8-12" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 90 and 93 look good. What I meant is that I think we can shave off some snow amounts when the good lift sort of shuts down. Typical SWFE stuff. You may have lighter rates where it's colder, but seems like when you lose the DGZ lift, it's always banded or light stuff. Good crosshair sig there at 90 and 93…I’d feel ok going 6-10/8-12. I wouldn’t go 10-15 though given the relatively short duration of the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Good crosshair sig there at 90 and 93…I’d feel ok going 6-10/8-12. I wouldn’t go 10-15 though given the relatively short duration of the good stuff. Yeah 6hr or so of pound town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Don't use 10:1 stuff is what I mean. Basically similar to what Wiz posted an hour or two ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 This is the best of all worlds-I get my snow and get to go albeit delayed but likely not shut down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 The biggest euro run of Georges life 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Mm I suspect the IB front side can burst 2 or 3"/hr for a stint/banding interval, inside a general moderate snow that lasts 6 hours, then it fades into a S-/S with friendly posting triggering mood snows for protracted finish. Probably 6-8" in that, followed by 1-3" over 12 hours or something - just GFS verbatim. It may even have a backside edge that looks like an end near, that temporarily has some trollers trying to recoup on their losses ( which were our gains..), only to have that back side start filling in with level 1 or 2 rad returns - and they just vanish whence that happens. Heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Well this is encouraging to see. Small window of getting some intense lifting into the DGZ which will be huge given how high it is. You can also see the snow ratio jump during this window as well. This would be a solid 1-2'' per hour rates verbatim. This is BDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 11 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Basically similar to what Wiz posted an hour or two ago Oh I missed it then. But I was coming at it more from, this may shut off a little sooner/rates reduced quicker when DGZ is hosed. That is, if the GFS is right. Basically...a SWFE thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Well this is encouraging to see. Small window of getting some intense lifting into the DGZ which will be huge given how high it is. You can also see the snow ratio jump during this window as well. This would be a solid 1-2'' per hour rates verbatim. This is BDL when you say "huge", do you mean that the DGZ is literally huge or that the fact that lift gets into the DGZ is "huge" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said: when you say "huge", do you mean that the DGZ is literally huge or that the fact that lift gets into the DGZ is "huge" It’s a little early to be analyzing that anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 3 hours ago, George001 said: Honestly I don’t agree with him being 5 posted. He is just as much of a weenie as I am, but he likes warmer weather while I like snow and cold. I don’t see anything wrong with that, people just don’t like him rooting for record warmth because most of this board likes cold and snow. He gets all kinds of shit for posting a long range gfs run showing a torch, yet when people post long range snow maps, that’s ok? Nah that’s bullshit, this is a weather board, not a “root for snow or else” board. If you ask me, neither of us should be 5 posted but if weenies aren’t going to be allowed anymore, logically it makes sense to 5 post both of us. We are not the same 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said: when you say "huge", do you mean that the DGZ is literally huge or that the fact that lift gets into the DGZ is "huge" the later 1 minute ago, dendrite said: It’s a little early to be analyzing that anyway. this is about a good time frame to start. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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