TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Gfs actually looks pretty good. 8-12 for many 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 21 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah, the adjective Id use to describe what this event is turning into is “annoyance” or “annoying”m GFS was more than 3-6! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Icon 10-11 for sne off 10-1 maps. Yeah that makes more sense based on QPF. I think some were using the “snow depth change” maps which can be low…esp in any event that may have decent snow growth and below freezing temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 It appears as if it takes a bit longer for the shortwave to totally get sheared apart on this run. But this is some beast WAA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Gfs actually looks pretty good. 8-12 for many The Pope has 16" and an Our Father in that depiction 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Also something to keep in mind is, looking through some soundings really quickly, it seems like the DGZ is going to be relatively high, well above the greatest lift. This would have a substantial impact on snow growth and ratios. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 I actually thought the GFS was an improvement, farther N and W with the primary low and then weaker confluence to the north provides a bit more coastal enhancement. That's still good for a widespread 6-12", in this winter I certainly would be happy with it. Would be a quick mover though without any mechanism to slow it down, unlike those wild solutions from yesterday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 A classic 6-12” storm would be perfectly fine with me. Liking the look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 End of the week storm looks nice on the GFS up here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: End of the week storm looks nice on the GFS up here Certain people should not be starting a thread on that one 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 ughh I was pretty excited with some features of the GFS looking better...but I seriously think we would struggle to really accumulate. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KTBFFH1905 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: Let’s stop the arguing now. And the mehing(I hate that f’n word), and let’s enjoy the tracking. The big dog is gone, but a 3-6” storm for most (some places more)should be in the cards for a good chunk of SNE. This is so much better than 45-50 and clouds, with nothing to track all winter. Lets enjoy the model theater that is now upon us. And if it goes to nothing, it’s not like this would be a surprise this season. Now Bring on the 12z runs … Well said! At this point I will take any actual ground coverage that isn't dissipated by dinner time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that makes more sense based on QPF. I think some were using the “snow depth change” maps which can be low…esp in any event that may have decent snow growth and below freezing temps. I think you guys are about to make up for loss time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: ughh I was pretty excited with some features of the GFS looking better...but I seriously think we would struggle to really accumulate. Bad snow growth may limit up there, but temps are pretty cold for the bulk of the precip.. Several inches seems likely from the northern 3rd of CT on up.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: End of the week storm looks nice on the GFS up here verbatim that's a lot of sleet during the height of the storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not sure why we feel the need to blast people for voicing the fact that 7-10" is dissappointing given this had the potential for so much more..."stupidity"? 'Cmon, dude...40" was a very long shot, but this had a very realistic chance to be a pretty high end ordeal and now it isn't. I'm not sure why storm enthusiasts need to pretend that doesn't blow while at the same time being glad that there is a bonafide event en route during a shitty season. The two aren't mutually exclusive. I totally disagree in this terrible winter people should be happy we're getting plowable snow, don't know what to tell you on this one. We had a few runs go bezerk over 130+ hours out. There should be no investment in a model outcome at that time frame. It was never a completely viable outcome. It showed a historic blizzard at far too early a time frame, not sure how it can be a disappointment. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 GFS had over 1" qpf over a large area of the region. Pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 The late week storm drops 2 to 3" qpf ... but I'm assuming that is rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 minute ago, jaf said: The late week storm drops 2 to 3" qpf ... but I'm assuming that is rain? Happy to have ya on the board, but you might want to redirect this stuff to March discussion 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Just now, Henry's Weather said: Happy to have ya on the board, but you might want to redirect this stuff to March discussion Should we have a thread for this one, or too early? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Bad snow growth may limit up there, but temps are pretty cold for the bulk of the precip.. Several inches seems likely from the northern 3rd of CT on up.. It seems pretty close. 925/850 are certainly cold enough for snow but the surface could be a question. I guess we'll have to see how much temperatures climb through the day Monday. With thick cloud cover coming in quickly we may not drop much during the evening and until we get a more northeasterly component to the wind. Above 925/850 though seems to raise some big questions. Verbatim the GFS is only around -2C to -3C at 700 and -17C to -19C. With the majority of the lift well below this I can see horrific snow growth (even a solid mixture of sleet). Will wait for 12z GFS bufkit, but my guess is we would be looking at snow ratios around 7:1 or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Just now, jaf said: Should we have a thread for this one, or too early? Nah, no need. One duck at a time 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, jaf said: Should we have a thread for this one, or too early? Definitely too early. Maybe start one next Tuesday or Weds. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 52 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Yeah, the adjective Id use to describe what this event is turning into is “annoyance” or “annoying” Lol congrats on a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It seems pretty close. 925/850 are certainly cold enough for snow but the surface could be a question. I guess we'll have to see how much temperatures climb through the day Monday. With thick cloud cover coming in quickly we may not drop much during the evening and until we get a more northeasterly component to the wind. Above 925/850 though seems to raise some big questions. Verbatim the GFS is only around -2C to -3C at 700 and -17C to -19C. With the majority of the lift well below this I can see horrific snow growth (even a solid mixture of sleet). Will wait for 12z GFS bufkit, but my guess is we would be looking at snow ratios around 7:1 or so. Does latitude help? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 8 minutes ago, jaf said: Should we have a thread for this one, or too early? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 The 6z EPS makes much more sense to me than the 12z GEFS. The GEFS is phase happy with the shortwave over Manitoba. But it could be correct. The result is much less clean; energy broadened rather than consolidated. QPF expectations should be 1/4 - 1/2 of the EPS-eque evolution. This shortwave out of a data sparce region is definitely adding to uncertainty. Am very curious to see EPS at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Definitely too early. Maybe start one next Tuesday or Weds. lol If we wait too long there won't be a threat anymore. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Does latitude help? It may in the sense that the overall profile is colder with latitude. But here is 700mb temps for 9z Tuesday which is within the window of the heavier rates. We certainly can get great snow growth with intense llvl lift and llvl cold but I'm not sure it's cold enough to offset this "warmth" and very high DGZ. I think we would really struggle to generate good dendrites. I could see very tiny flakes which even resemble sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Gefs mean is south of the OP at hr 96 but north of the 6z gefs fwiw. It’s a fairly safe system for most of SNE and CNE but every detail matters for those on the edges. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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