Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I haven't been paying much attention to that...Will said the EURO looks like a rainer.

Euro shows a suppressed storm atm which is fine this far out. No need to worry about the March storm yet until this one plays out though.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I haven't been paying much attention to that...Will said the EURO looks like a rainer.

You’re not going to believe this; but airmass looks marginal for shot one as well 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, George001 said:

Euro is out to sea on the last run, but yeah that looked ugly on the euro for a few cycles. It made a massive shift at 0z.

At least we systems to track...change in and of itself.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

14 minutes ago, George001 said:

Im going to double down and make a bet.  Over under is 16 for BOS. If BOS gets less than 16, I get banned for a month, and if BOS gets more, you get banned for a month. Btw, the offer to meet in person at the next gtg and settle our differences with our fists is still on the table. 

You have a better shot of not even taking out your shovel than Boston does at seeing 16”

[CoastalWx]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

You have a better shot of not even taking out your shovel than Boston does at seeing 16”

Taste the 80s

[HoarfrostHubb]

As Dryslut posted it is looking more like a SWFE.   Those rarely go above double digits.   
I would still welcome it

[Henry's Weather]

Daybreak start SWFEs are some of the best systems, imo. Less total adrenaline influx and more manageable, while still being substantial. Was the "perfect storm", no pun intended, as a little kid bc these storms would be strong enough to call school off, but weak enough that I could convince my brother to trek through the snow and sled w/ me.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Taste the 80s

Hopefully Morch 12 arrives later in March 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

As Dryslut posted it is looking more like a SWFE.   Those rarely go above double digits.   
I would still welcome it

Sort of a hybrid SWFE?   The trends we wouldn’t want to see is a weaker wave that speeds up.  The “initial thump is what we are relying on and sometimes those are over quicker than modeled.

This could surprise still end up being an 8”-12” for a lot of folks or we might be shaving 20% off that. When my kid asked me this morning how much snow we are getting I realistically told him 4”-6” because,  I would rather him be surprised than disappointed.  

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Realistically, yeah. isolated 16"-ers is probably the 95th percentile evolution. IDRK though. What exactly is the limiting factor on this thing? Lack of potent SW or lack of potent downstream stoppage?

The limiting factor right now is duration. The higher model runs were longer duration. It required that trailing shortwave to partially phase in….clearly many in here were biting on that solution (hence the disappointment by many now that it’s trended away from that idea) but I’ve always thought it was a bit aggressive given the pattern. If we can slow this down a bit by trending the block a pinch stronger, then maybe we can bring those back….but I typically do not bank on complex shortwave interactions to deliver the goods. 
 

The single shortwave can still produce a really nice 8-10 hour period of moderate to heavy snow though. It has a nice neg tilt and a good high to the north to maximize frontogenesis. 

[Henry's Weather]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

The limiting factor right now is duration. The higher model runs were longer duration. It required that trailing shortwave to partially phase in….clearly many in here were biting on that solution (hence the disappointment by many now that it’s trended away from that idea) but I’ve always thought it was a bit aggressive given the pattern. If we can slow this down a bit by trending the block a pinch stronger, then maybe we can bring those back….but I typically do not bank on complex shortwave interactions to deliver the goods. 
 

The single shortwave can still produce a really nice 8-10 hour period of moderate to heavy snow though. It has a nice neg tilt and a good high to the north to maximize frontogenesis. 

Very reasonable and thorough description, thank you. I greatly enjoy those front-end dumps, there's some intangible quality to WAA snows in the morning.

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The limiting factor right now is duration. The higher model runs were longer duration. It required that trailing shortwave to partially phase in….clearly many in here were biting on that solution (hence the disappointment by many now that it’s trended away from that idea) but I’ve always thought it was a bit aggressive given the pattern. If we can slow this down a bit by trending the block a pinch stronger, then maybe we can bring those back….but I typically do not bank on complex shortwave interactions to deliver the goods. 
 

The single shortwave can still produce a really nice 8-10 hour period of moderate to heavy snow though. It has a nice neg tilt and a good high to the north to maximize frontogenesis. 

This is going to be the most intriguing aspect in terms of forecasting potential snowfall totals. There is going to be an extremely tight temperature gradient within a short-distance. If that does verify, there is going to be a very narrow intense banding of enhanced fronto in the 850-700 layer. Where that occurs and if it does is where the strip of highest totals will be. One thing to watch too is east slopes of the Berks who could destroy in this (as usual)

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

This is going to be the most intriguing aspect in terms of forecasting potential snowfall totals. There is going to be an extremely tight temperature gradient within a short-distance. If that does verify, there is going to be a very narrow intense banding of enhanced fronto in the 850-700 layer. Where that occurs and if it does is where the strip of highest totals will be. One thing to watch too is east slopes of the Berks who could destroy in this (as usual)

Yeah there will likely be almost an E-W oriented band for a time that just dumps....assuming we don't see other drastic changes to guidance.

 

If people want to know the most likely thing that goes wrong in this? I'd say it's the shortwave becoming too weak and shears and then you end up with just a steady light to moderate snow that dumps maybe 4-7" or something instead of 6-10/8-12". Most guidance is keeping the shortwave fairly robust....but that's probably the main thing I'd watch for in terms of "Things that can go wrong".

 

On the flip side, for "Things that can go right".....I'd say just watch the NAO blocking allowing even a little bit of additional trailing energy to try and interact....I'm not optimistic on that, but it's still within the envelope of solutions.

[CoastalWx]

It’s definitely not your traditional looking big dog s/w. Shears out and zooms north east. The block causes it to shear out, but otherwise it would cut.  Maybe there’s a good fronto band as some have said.

[BombsAway1288]

51 minutes ago, George001 said:

Im going to double down and make a bet.  Over under is 16 for BOS. If BOS gets less than 16, I get banned for a month, and if BOS gets more, you get banned for a month. Btw, the offer to meet in person at the next gtg and settle our differences with our fists is still on the table. 

You’re out of your mind sir. No reason for me to be banned. You’re the only one on the chopping block and you did it to yourself. Good luck

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s definitely not your traditional looking big dog s/w. Shears out and zooms north east. The block causes it to shear out, but otherwise it would cut.  Maybe there’s a good fronto band as some have said.

Mic drop.....thank you very much

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Mic drop.....thank you very much

No you didn’t lol.

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

No you didn’t lol.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/obswx/winter/boxpns_dec23.txt

Some nice totals in that one

[dendrite]

Will just forecasted 20" for Ayer

[Cyclone-68]

To Ayer is human to forgive divine 

[George001]

6 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

You’re out of your mind sir. No reason for me to be banned. You’re the only one on the chopping block and you did it to yourself. Good luck

A busted forecast is not ban worthy, so there really isn’t any reason for either of us to be banned. Looks like that’s a no to taking me up on that bet, so I’ll call it off.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

A busted forecast is not ban worthy, so there really isn’t any reason for either of us to be banned. Looks like that’s a no to taking me up on that bet, so I’ll call it off.

It is when you cannot control your hyperbole.

[George001]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It is when you cannot control your hyperbole.

Then let’s ban all the people who hyped up the December pattern too. 

[forkyfork]

18 hours ago, forkyfork said:

the rug pull is really gonna hurt isn't it

ccb/ivt went poof <3

[weatherwiz]

HOly shit...I just saw a good sized limb break off the pine tree and come down

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, George001 said:

Then let’s ban all the people who hyped up the December pattern too. 

VERY different scenarios lol. You can't call for top 10 blizzards every time a decent threat emerges, that's bad dopamine vibes for the rest of us

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

ccb/ivt went poof <3

been gone for days-up your trolling game pal.

[WinterWolf]

Let’s stop the arguing now. And the mehing(I hate that f’n word), and let’s enjoy the tracking. The big dog is gone, but a 3-6” storm for most (some places more)should be in the cards for a good chunk of SNE.  This is so much better than 45-50 and clouds, with nothing to track all winter. 
 

Lets enjoy the model theater that is now upon us. And if it goes to nothing, it’s not like this would be a surprise this season.

Now Bring on the 12z runs …

[George001]

Just now, Henry&#x27;s Weather said:

VERY different scenarios lol. You can't call for top 10 blizzards every time a decent threat emerges, that's bad dopamine vibes for the rest of us

The key word is potential, and that’s still on the table if the northern energy phases in (lower probability now yes, but still possible). Not every storm reaches its potential, 12-18 inches is still one hell of a storm and is very much thread worthy. It’s still a bust compared to a top 10 blizzard, but its a big difference than calling for a blizzard and getting nothing. I’d say that calling for Kev to get 60 during the last storm from qqomega was just as “ban worthy” as a busted snow forecast (Not at all if you ask me). It’s weather, we all bust sometimes. In 2015 qqomega, torch tiger, snowman19 would have been just as bad as I was in December.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

The key word is potential, and that’s still on the table if the northern energy phases in (lower probability now yes, but still possible). Not every storm reaches its potential, 12-18 inches is still one hell of a storm and is very much thread worthy. It’s still a bust compared to a top 10 blizzard, but its a big difference than calling for a blizzard and getting nothing. I’d say that calling for Kev to get 60 during the last storm from qqomega was just as “ban worthy” as a busted snow forecast (Not at all if you ask me). It’s weather, we all bust sometimes. In 2015 qqomega, torch tiger, snowman19 would have been just as bad as I was in December.

QGOmega is 5-posted....do you think you should be too?