Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat

[Spanks45]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well 50s ain't happening, so.....

 

My family from PA kept reminding how nice the 70s and sun felt yesterday. Good thing we didn't experience that, most would be on the Spring train by now.....knowing very well that those numbers weren't happening until June, HA!

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree...I think the capture and crawl scenario has crawled away. We need to hope that wave can close off faster on it's own, which is possible. 

A comment on the bold, above.   The stochastic NAO is the culprit ... More vs less transitive influence by that index's mode tendencies in the runs was/is a very sensitive factor for this. Very subtle variance in the amounts of exertion have backed away, and those ideas of 3 or whatever days ago go with it...

When was the last time the NAO bamboozled an outlook - right? 

This is a moderate event with ( unfortunately ) a correction vector for less.  That is the background, whenever transporting a S/W over curved trajectory over a S-SE ridge... into/through a confluence compression.  In the simplest sense it's a built in destructive interference factor. 

This had a higher ceiling as an event, when it had the NAO on its side... one of the few occasions the reputation of that index really has any merit...  But pulling that factor back, lowers that ceiling a bit. We can over-come that and get some potency back...but the contributing mechanics are still rotating around S Calif and we may see more of it conserved as it ejects ...

 

[CoastalWx]

EPS is pretty far south. 

[Kitz Craver]

6 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

If you're just joining us, and you're confused by the complete and utter stupidity in here, this storm still looks good. Plowable snow likely for many. Unfortunately some of the loudest in the room have been adding very little value to this analysis thread. Would be nice if they perhaps read, digested, and learned from our Mets and best amateur forecasters. Instead we are continuing to get emotionally driven sh*posting. 

I don’t get it? Guidance has stepped back. That’s a fact. Sure we are getting snow, details to be determined. But stating the obvious trend in guidance isn’t really shit posting now is it?

[Kitz Craver]

I am only speaking for CT FYI

[BombsAway1288]

What’s the over under for getting this guy banned? 12” BOS-ORH?

[Spanks45]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

EPS is pretty far south. 

Seems like the EPS during the 6z/18z have been south overall, only to bounce back north 6 hours later....weird, hope they are right on the further south idea

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

14 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

yeah, maybe it was just the loaded pattern in December felt like it slipped away...this really is the first event inside of 5 days that has been there for more than 1 run.

All of the small ones have underperformed as well. The one SWFE we had looked like a good 1-3 inches before changeover and then it just dried out before our eyes. I know its early to worry, but that March 4th system comes with the block better established, but to far SW? That one has Mid Atlantic vibes already. But, maybe that one will start marching north, 3 days out?

Agree. 3/4 could be suppressed lol but possible models are over estimating the -nao and it comes north. We’ll see this weekend. Long ways to go still for this one though, we ain’t done.

[weatherwiz]

Getting super excited now, just scared of being let down. I'll even take 3-4''. In this winter that would make me happy. 

[Spanks45]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Agree. 3/4 could be suppressed lol but possible models are over estimating the -nao and it comes north. We’ll see this weekend.

NAM wants to give us 1-3 inches tomorrow evening....would be nice, airmass is nice and cold too

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps is still further south than the gfs

Pics of member clowns?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

NAM wants to give us 1-3 inches tomorrow evening....would be nice, airmass is nice and cold too

Lets go!

[George001]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Agree. 3/4 could be suppressed lol but possible models are over estimating the -nao and it comes north. We’ll see this weekend.

It will come north. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

We have a 6-12" storm likely coming. Please stop. Please. 

 

18 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

If you're just joining us, and you're confused by the complete and utter stupidity in here, this storm still looks good. Plowable snow likely for many. Unfortunately some of the loudest in the room have been adding very little value to this analysis thread. Would be nice if they perhaps read, digested, and learned from our Mets and best amateur forecasters. Instead we are continuing to get emotionally driven sh*posting. 

I'm not sure why we feel the need to blast people for voicing the fact that 7-10" is dissappointing given this had the potential for so much more..."stupidity"? 'Cmon, dude...40" was a very long shot, but this had a very realistic chance to be a pretty high end ordeal and now it isn't. I'm not sure why storm enthusiasts need to pretend that doesn't blow while at the same time being glad that there is a bonafide event en route during a shitty season. The two aren't mutually exclusive. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

It will come north. 

Like the 2/28 top 10 blizzard? Noted…

[Winter Wizard]

A warning event is still very much on the table for most of the forum and would be a huge victory with how the winter has gone. There have been clear modes of failure with this one to prevent it from becoming a big dog. 

[George001]

5 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

What’s the over under for getting this guy banned? 12” BOS-ORH?

Im going to double down and make a bet.  Over under is 16 for BOS. If BOS gets less than 16, I get banned for a month, and if BOS gets more, you get banned for a month. Btw, the offer to meet in person at the next gtg and settle our differences with our fists is still on the table. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

I'm not sure why we feel the need to blast people for voicing the fact that 7-10" is dissappointing given this had the potential for so much more..."stupidity"? 'Cmon, dude...40" was a very long shot, but this had a very realistic chance to be a pretty high end ordeal and now it isn't. I'm not sure why storm enthusiasts need to pretend that doesn't blow while at the same time being glad that there is a bonafide event en route during a shitty season. The two aren't mutually exclusive. 

I'll also had that the margin for error is less...meaning this is more likely to continue trending poorly than it is recapture some of that early potential. Even in a bad winter when CT is desperate for snow....that blows dead goats. 

[George001]

The models often lose it and bring it back for the big ones. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, George001 said:

The models often lose it and bring it back for the big ones. 

I wish we'd lose you and bring you back for the non existent ones. 

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, George001 said:

The models often lose it and bring it back for the big ones. 

Problem is that this one isn't a pure coastal phaser, it's a decaying shortwave careening SE. Not exactly screaming MECS or HECS amounts. This isn't really a "big one", big ones are like Feb 2013 and Jan 2016. This is not in the same league

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'll also had that the margin for error is less...meaning this is more likely to continue trending poorly than it is recapture some of that early potential. Even in a bad winter when CT is desperate for snow....that blows dead goats. 

The finger wagging by some is kind of dumb at this point. This is not far from turning into a 2-4/3-6 deal for many, and it’s okay to admit that is disappointing.

 

Its also okay to admit this has trended decidedly worse in the last 36 hours.

 

Not sure why some have to pretend everything is awesome, given where we were 

[Henry's Weather]

4 minutes ago, George001 said:

The models often lose it and bring it back for the big ones. 

Like many others have said, if downstream traffic gets stouter, maybe we can squeeze a 12-18"er out of this system, but trends have not been favorable. We'll see!

[George001]

Just now, Henry's Weather said:

Problem is that this one isn't a pure coastal phaser, it's a decaying shortwave careening SE. Not exactly screaming MECS or HECS amounts. This isn't really a "big one", big ones are like Feb 2013 and Jan 2016. This is not in the same league

It’s not the same type of storm yes, but the swfe/Miller B hybrid that this looks to be is another way we can get buried, a long duration firehose like March 2013. There were a couple of those in Feb 2015 I’m pretty sure too, one on the 2nd and one on the 8th-10th. We just need a bit more northern stream injection.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said:

Like many others have said, if downstream traffic gets stouter, maybe we can squeeze a 12-18"er out of this system, but trends have not been favorable. We'll see!

I think that ship has sailed....the ceiling is probably about a foot.

[Henry's Weather]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

It’s not the same type of storm yes, but the swfe/Miller B hybrid that this looks to be is another way we can get buried, a long duration firehose like March 2013. There were a couple of those in Feb 2015 I’m pretty sure too, one on the 2nd and one on the 8th-10th. We just need a bit more northern stream injection.

Perhaps, I'm really not on my game as far as synoptic-scale pattern identification goes this year. Too few storms to track. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Early March is the biggie imo not this. You don't see models showing a storm a week out consistently for no reason. 

Only the big dogs can do that. 

I haven't been paying much attention to that...Will said the EURO looks like a rainer.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said:

Perhaps, I'm really not on my game as far as synoptic-scale pattern identification goes this year. Too few storms to track. 

You aren't off of your game. We are trending hard away from PV interaction at day 3-4...that isn't reversing to a large extent. 

[George001]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I haven't been paying much attention to that...Will said the EURO looks like a rainer.

Euro is out to sea on the last run, but yeah that looked ugly on the euro for a few cycles. It made a massive shift at 0z.

[Henry's Weather]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think that ship has sailed....the ceiling is probably about a foot.

Realistically, yeah. isolated 16"-ers is probably the 95th percentile evolution. IDRK though. What exactly is the limiting factor on this thing? Lack of potent SW or lack of potent downstream stoppage?