MJO812 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: Ukmet looks pretty significantly south to me and a bit less qpf havent really looked into thermals or much deeper than that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Uncle hit the edible’s tonight. Once in a while he lays off the gin in favor of cannabis. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, dmcginvt said: Wow, if you need anyone to talk you down let me know, Im a master Do you know what uncle means here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Do you know what uncle means here? I know your an old motherfucker who's been around the block, previous shit deleted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, dmcginvt said: I know your an old motherfucker who's been around the block, previous shit deleted I am/and like many I’m an uncle. But maybe 10-15 years ago we were bantering about ukmet which has always had erratic solutions. So I surmised that ukmet is like your crazy uncle that is drunk on thanksgiving but is capable of better. Crazy Uncle Ukie. So if someone posts uncle?-they’re looking for ukmet. I’m tossing tonight’s run. Now some would say it’s because my area gets screwed which has some truth to it. But it’s whacked unless it’s cousin euro agrees-lol. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 hour ago, weathafella said: I am/and like many I’m an uncle. But maybe 10-15 years ago we were bantering about ukmet which has always had erratic solutions. So I surmised that ukmet is like your crazy uncle that is drunk on thanksgiving but is capable of better. Crazy Uncle Ukie. So if someone posts uncle?-they’re looking for ukmet. I’m tossing tonight’s run. Now some would say it’s because my area gets screwed which has some truth to it. But it’s whacked unless it’s cousin euro agrees-lol. I am also familiar with the ukie being called uncle. I have been around since ne.weather but all these years a lurker, I remember when pf still lived in Albany and could forecast microclimates for VT better than the nws and was delighted when he moved here in btv and then when he lived in snow country near MRG before coming to stowe. I remember when it died with joe bartlo and the psests. rip joe, you were a freakshow, just like usafdude from the cape James who is also dead. And then eastern and dt and larry c and the radio shows the used to have for big storms. I used to play in the tq forecasting competitons too in the early 2000's. Been around the block since aol in 1995. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Man, I looked at H5 south of LI and thought the EURO looked better than 12z,but the clown cut it in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Looks like that PV energy is a no-go....about 36 hours off on the timing. That lead wave is all in its own, and looked better in a discrete sense, but the less interaction with the PV outweighed that so it was a net loss-pedestrian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 well the euro is now a 987 low, getting closer to George's 970 that fixes things 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 49 minutes ago, dmcginvt said: well the euro is now a 987 low, getting closer to George's 970 that fixes things I think it's becoming clear that the route to a big storm is to hope that wave can kind go to town in its own faster...that is the hope for a foot or more, otherwise it's a warning event...which is still no small feat this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 5 minutes ago, dmcginvt said: well the euro is now a 987 low, getting closer to George's 970 that fixes things A 987 south of LI, and it’s pedestrian? That doesn’t make a lot of sense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I thin it's becoming clear that the route to a big storm is to hope that wave can kind go to town in its own faster...that is the hope for a foot or more, otherwise it's a warning event...which is still no small feat this year. OK, you're off the third shift. I'm up for work. Get some zzz! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Euro and GFS show a foot out to 240 for both Stowe and Methuen. Ill take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 0z GFS clown maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 22 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: A 987 south of LI, and it’s pedestrian? That doesn’t make a lot of sense? Surely it's a blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 11 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: 0z GFS clown maps 0z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Its coming right at me (from the NW) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 It appears that euro and gfs both have mid levels that never quite get cranking in time for Southern NE. Obviously a pretty good widespread snowfall regardless. We'd like to see mid levels improve back to what they were about a day ago to really cash in on big amounts. That capture and crawl off the coast of Sne isn't there overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 slipping away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 hour ago, TalcottWx said: It appears that euro and gfs both have mid levels that never quite get cranking in time for Southern NE. Obviously a pretty good widespread snowfall regardless. We'd like to see mid levels improve back to what they were about a day ago to really cash in on big amounts. That capture and crawl off the coast of Sne isn't there overnight. I agree...I think the capture and crawl scenario has crawled away. We need to hope that wave can close off faster on it's own, which is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 17 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: slipping away I don't think so. The ceiling is certainly lowering, but I'd be pretty shocked if it isn't a widespread warning event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 There's another system a couple days later, but looks like rain. Then there's that big storm that following weekend on all models, but it misses south. Some things to track at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said: slipping away Not one piece of model guidance is showing that. We really need to cut down on posts that are completely and unquestionably wrong. The confusion it causes gets old. Do better 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 2 hours ago, dmcginvt said: Euro and GFS show a foot out to 240 for both Stowe and Methuen. Ill take it. Nah...its like 8" here. To me, that is pedestrian...didn't mean to give anyone the wrong idea. Nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Yeah overnight runs really take away that trailing shortwave interaction. So that will put a cap on the thing’s potential. Still can’t complain though about a solid warning snowfall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 GFS more north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah overnight runs really take away that trailing shortwave interaction. So that will put a cap on the thing’s potential. Still can’t complain though about a solid warning snowfall. 6-12" still on the table for many, a major impact snowfall. Not historic, but stuff it if you're disappointed. Still a period of time here where we can trend snowier. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think so. The ceiling is certainly lowering, but I'd be pretty shocked if it isn't a widespread warning event. That's what I mean, barely a pedestrian event. hopefully it scales back even more since it's not a big dog 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 The storm next weekend continues to be there, and continues to insist it will only marginally affect us before going out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Wagons north AWT. 0z Icon ftw lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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