Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: GFS thermals are always messed up. It’s almost exactly the same as euro and Canadian with the warm tongue through SWCT. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Two footer for some on GFS. Ray gets croaked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 10 inches? Take the under with those thermals. Not locking anything in either. I’m just analyzing the GFS run verbatim that’s all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Two footer for some on GFS. Ray gets croaked 1.25 to 2.2 inches qpf region wide. Reasonable people are keeping their expectations in the 8 to 12 range with lollies to 15 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Take the under with those thermals. Not locking anything in either. I’m just analyzing the GFS run verbatim that’s all. Soundings look good for you. I don't understand. GFS has also run warm each event 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 1.25 to 2.2 inches qpf region wide. Reasonable people are keeping their expectations in the 8 to 12 range with lollies to 15 I wouldn’t buy the over 12” amounts…yet Still in play though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 1.25 to 2.2 inches qpf region wide. Reasonable people are keeping their expectations in the 8 to 12 range with lollies to 15 that's what I was thinking, was even a little more conservative with 6-10" imby, more east... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 one thing that still concerns me is the antecedent airmass, we have yet to have a good one leading up to an event, marginal sfc temps, but colder aloft so it's promising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 1.25 to 2.2 inches qpf region wide. Reasonable people are keeping their expectations in the 8 to 12 range with lollies to 15 We also slot down here with less than an inch qpf. We don’t get the lingering snow like you guys NE get. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 1.25 to 2.2 inches qpf region wide. Reasonable people are keeping their expectations in the 8 to 12 range with lollies to 15 8-12” would be great but look at the inflow on gfs, it’s EOR for the best stuff. WCT gets the initial thump then it’s pretty much ip/snizzle while out east get it on the ccb. Just calling it how I see the run. No meh no emotion… Can the gfs be too warm? Sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 8-12” would be great but look at the inflow on gfs, it’s EOR for the best stuff. WCT gets the initial thump then it’s pretty much ip/snizzle while out east get it on the ccb. Just calling it how I see the run. No meh no emotion… Can the gfs be too warm? Sure. ya that’s how I see it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 10 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said: I don’t have reanalysis handy, but how does this setup compare to 2/9/15? Not super similar. That one was more of a straight overrunning setup and didn’t involve a compact shortwave running into confluence like this one. It did have that northeast to southwest gradient in temps. This setup is not super common. CIPS said top analog was Feb 21, 2005 and that was a 5-9” type event for a chunk of SNE though it was clearly weaker than this modeled event…both aloft and at the sfc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Really like this signal for you guys. Hoping you can cash in big time with the overrunning and potential secondary low. Ski resorts need some loving. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 49 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs crushes SNE Am I gonna go look at this thing and find that it's weaker than the 12z again... ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 I’m sittiin’ back .. and not smilin ‘ . I am watchin’ and nervous stomach causing shittin’ 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 53 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Even with a negative NAO Smfh That's sorta the thought behind it tho. nao makes me favor more confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 My early guess for highest totals would be ray to rt 2 south into orh and metro west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Looking forward to Ray’s first call. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 8-12” would be great but look at the inflow on gfs, it’s EOR for the best stuff. WCT gets the initial thump then it’s pretty much ip/snizzle while out east get it on the ccb. Just calling it how I see the run. No meh no emotion… Can the gfs be too warm? Sure. It’s been too long since WCT has stood upon the podium and as of now it looks again as if we’ll be denied a mount. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Am I gonna go look at this thing and find that it's weaker than the 12z again... ? 500 trends have been flatter, but you guys have the latitude to play with this go around. Overrunning and the secondary low (if the primary dies fast enough) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, Superstorm93 said: 500 trends have been flatter, but you guys have the latitude to play with this go around. Overrunning and the secondary low (if the primary dies fast enough) I think it's possible this smears out into another event similar to what happened today. Which... don't get me wrong. I'm not ungrateful ... it's wintry out there for a change. 4" of sand and snow and a blue tinted dusk at 24 F is a seldom scenery this p.o.s. winter.. we have to "de" magnify for one. All systems at D5 are bigger than the are in the near term. That's A. B, no N/stream to phase... C, the whole f'n thing is trying to move into a confluence up and over a -PNA warm anomaly in the S squeezed between cold in Canada = raging boner velocities... It's really amazing these models have that much QPF and holding onto this thing with so much neg head interference crap. But it is what it is... I'll go along with the game if it's gonna happen. But I wouldn't be shocked if we see this start pancaking on us... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 hour ago, weathafella said: That’s 18+ in AEMATT Great run, needs to stop going north though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Great run, needs to stop going north though You’re in a good spot dude, as always, with these SE of CC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You’re in a good spot dude, as always, with these SE of CC. This is far from set in stone…in the jackpot now is never a good bet. Lots of runs to go…I think we’ll do ok. I know I’m more east of you(more central), and especially Seymour, but don’t give up at this early juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: This is far from set in stone…in the jackpot now is never a good bet. Lots of runs to go…I think we’ll do ok. I know I’m more east of you(more central), and especially Seymour, but don’t give up at this early juncture. Nah, no one is giving up. It’s all gravy. I’m confident in plowable here, confident Ditty loses his bet to Stevie with one storm (before March), and confident my yapping on a good closing and patience preaching for SNE is coming to fruition. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: This is far from set in stone…in the jackpot now is never a good bet. Lots of runs to go…I think we’ll do ok. I know I’m more east of you(more central), and especially Seymour, but don’t give up at this early juncture. I still hold plenty of hope. Just can’t afford anymore north tics.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: I still hold plenty of hope. Just can’t afford anymore north tics.. It’ll tick north, then it’ll come south some. Better it ticks now then on Sunday/Monday. Fluctuations are always part of this…we know this is how it works. I’m glad I’m not in the jackpot now to be frank…she ain’t done moving around. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: It’ll tick north, then it’ll come south some. Better it ticks now then on Sunday/Monday. Fluctuations are always part of this…we know this is how it works. I’m glad I’m not in the jackpot now to be frank…she ain’t done moving around. Mid level trend has been south at least I think. Encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 24, 2023 Author Share Posted February 24, 2023 I think it will come north more, but not a lot. The blocking forces the low to redevelop, but that doesn’t mean it will go over the benchmark and give snow to the mid Atlantic and cape. Most guidance is inside the benchmark, not over it. It is very possible that the low ends up going over the canal, leading to rain snow line issues. It wouldn’t take a massive north adjustment for that to happen, and I really think that’s more likely than the jackpot being SE. Honestly, I’m rooting for that because it would mean a stronger storm even though my area wouldn’t be the jackpot with that track. I’d rather get 20 while someone north of me gets 30 than get 15 while everyone else gets 12, so I say bring on the north trends. In this scenario, Tblizz and Metfan would get some rain. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 minute ago, TalcottWx said: Mid level trend has been south at least I think. Encouraging. Agreed. More shifts and ticks to come…it’s part of the game. At least we are tracking something legit…more than we could say for the first 9 weeks of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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