mahk_webstah Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think its decent in the deformation area. Yes, in the big storm up here in late January is proof of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: We've had multiple. Perhaps the more noteworthy one was maybe a month or so ago. The agreement was through the roof. There was even one earlier in the winter. Huh when? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, ariof said: ofc they spent most of the week selling it as a "historic" storm in the top 10 (to be fair, their top 10 is kind of weak sauce) and then it turns into a foot of snow. Only one poster who started this thread was doing that here. (And to be fair, the models were pushing 12-24 for a while, and it wound up at the lower end of that anyway. Just now, weatherwiz said: I may be wrong, but I think the 18-24'' was to account for both rounds as they were getting two rounds of heavy snow. One was Monday night into Tuesday and the second Tuesday night into this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Huh when? My memory doesn't work the same anymore, so I can't remember specific dates but there were a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 7 day qpf from wpc updated. Looks good given it’s mostly all from Mon Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 23, 2023 Author Share Posted February 23, 2023 Looks like the guidance beefed up a bit from last night, but not as much as the Euro yesterday. That’s a great look, strong consensus for 12-18 inches of snow and it’s very close to being quite a bit more. The NAO is negative and there is a strong low tracking to our SE. If the bust scenario is “only” a foot, that’s how you know we have a monster on our hands. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: My memory doesn't work the same anymore, so I can't remember specific dates but there were a few. Disagree have not had a solid day 4 consensus since Dec 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 who gives a foooooook about MN? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 9 minutes ago, ariof said: ofc they spent most of the week selling it as a "historic" storm in the top 10 (to be fair, their top 10 is kind of weak sauce) and then it turns into a foot of snow. Only one poster who started this thread was doing that here. (And to be fair, the models were pushing 12-24 for a while, and it wound up at the lower end of that anyway. Euro did not only had 12 to 16 in max zone in Minneapolis. IDK what trap they fell into but it was a great snowstorm anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, tunafish said: who gives a foooooook about MN? Forky. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Disagree have not had a solid day 4 consensus since Dec I swear we had one sometime in January. I remember being super excited and once it went to crap I virtually just checked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Disagree have not had a solid day 4 consensus since Dec We never got a good threat inside d6 in December. Unless you count 12/16 for elevated interior north of the pike. But that excluded about 90% of the posters in SNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, weatherwiz said: I swear we had one sometime in January. I remember being super excited and once it went to crap I virtually just checked out. Not that I recall 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: Not that I recall The only “threat” that made it anywhere close was the 1/23 “happy ending” event. That wasn’t a big deal though. Maybe 2-4” with some 5-6” lollis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: The only “threat” that made it anywhere close was the 1/23 “happy ending” event. That wasn’t a big deal though. Maybe 2-4” with some 5-6” lollis. Ahhh yes, that's the one I was thinking of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The only “threat” that made it anywhere close was the 1/23 “happy ending” event. That wasn’t a big deal though. Maybe 2-4” with some 5-6” lollis. Wasn’t that only really solid from 3-4 days out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Kev said when Forky went big in December he knew it was over. He's expecting a rug pull this time. La la la lock it up? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: We've had multiple. Perhaps the more noteworthy one was maybe a month or so ago. The agreement was through the roof. There was even one earlier in the winter. No storm has made it to day 4.5 like todays has for SNE. This is by far our best threat this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 33 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the rug pull is really gonna hurt isn't it How did you get to this psychological low where your personality revolves around being insufferable toward others? I envision you locked in moms basement with a ton of body odor and mountain dew. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: No storm has made it to day 4.5 like todays has for SNE. This is by far our best threat this winter. My timeline must be way off. This is why recollection from memory alone can be a terrible idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: My timeline must be way off. This is why recollection from memory alone can be a terrible idea. Beer and hockey pucks to the head. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 ...This has to be a record amount of ... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: My timeline must be way off. This is why recollection from memory alone can be a terrible idea. Ya Wiz…nothing has looked even close to this, and been this close in lead time. You confused. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Let me add one more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam038 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: ...This has to be a record amount of ... Is there some sort of index correlating George’s post to weenie ratio, kind of like the Waffle House index? If not, there should be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digityman Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 I thought there was one last year 30+. An admin can probably find it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12WX Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Positive move from the 12z suite. The main thing I am paying attention to is the 850 mb wind plots to monitor the easterly jet. Here is yesterday's 18z GFS plot which delivered a consensus 18" east of ORH: Now here is the 06z plot that "only" gave east of ORH widespread 10-12" amounts: Finally, here is this morning's GFS which returns to delivering a general 14-16" east of ORH. FWIW the Euro made a similar improvement. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Chris12WX said: Positive move from the 12z suite. The main thing I am paying attention to is the 850 mb wind plots to monitor the easterly jet. Here is yesterday's 18z GFS plot which delivered a consensus 18" east of ORH: Now here is the 06z plot that "only" gave east of ORH widespread 10-12" amounts: Finally, here is this morning's GFS which returns to delivering a general 14-16" east of ORH. FWIW the Euro made a similar improvement. Great posts. Follow the mid levels. Ignore qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 15 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: ...This has to be a record amount of ... Someone in the mid Atlantic got over 40 once lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 17 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: ...This has to be a record amount of ... He got his HECW’s. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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