HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Looks good for MBY. (GFS) Won't verify like that but at this stage it bears watching. Timing kinda blows. Don't want a snow day or 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 981 low over N Michigan? That's tough to get snow for CT/RI etc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I’m a little nervous of that primary hanging on longer and longer, that’s a feature we don’t want to see over the next day or two. Given the season, I’m worried that’s what we may get though Is there ever a time you’re not worried. Lol. Nonstop worrying..must be a tough way to live. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: 981 low over N Michigan? That's tough to get snow for CT/RI etc Ya rain for you down there in Greenwich. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 No where near thread worthy ... yet, but the 4th looms. The ICON is setting up a charming scenario in the E, fwinotw.... that model ends at 180 so we don't get to see... ( probably a good thing! lol -) That period still nested in a general index signal, so it has the advantage both that, and having an object on maps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, WinterWolf said: Is there ever a time you’re not worried. Lol. Nonstop worrying..must be a tough way to live. His concern is valid. If the primary hangs onto the energy it could be a cold rain for a bunch of folks. For now it looks good though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 40 minutes ago, George001 said: Yeah the models arent showing what the Euro did yesterday, but the important thing is they moved away from the cutter and are showing a Miller B now. Im not buying a progressive solution at all, in my opinion they will start trending back to yesterday’s Euro run over the next couple of days due to the blocking. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, WinterWolf said: Ya rain for you down there in Greenwich. even further north-I would think that torches the midlevels...usually you want to see the primary die off in OH or maybe WV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Is there ever a time you’re not worried. Lol. Nonstop worrying..must be a tough way to live. It’s valid though. It’s negative in two ways. The transfer to a secondary happens later and is less dynamic, and warm air floods in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 I'll take any evolution from these models shown at 12z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: even further north-I would think that torches the midlevels...usually you want to see the primary die off in OH or maybe WV I jokingly said in the NYC forum if you're between BDL and BDR right now I like the chances of the 25th event producing more snow than I do this one...or the system later next week. I'd be surprised if this ended up being a major event even in a place like interior central CT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It’s valid though. It’s negative in two ways. The transfer to a secondary happens later and is less dynamic, and warm air floods in. I agree…but who really cares at this point? I mean if I rain, I’ve rained all winter. No worries anymore. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: I jokingly said in the NYC forum if you're between BDL and BDR right now I like the chances of the 25th event producing more snow than I do this one...or the system later next week. I'd be surprised if this ended up being a major event even in a place like interior central CT Wow…so it’s a non burger? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'll take any evolution from these models shown at 12z. Me too…but snowgoose lowered the hammer on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Wow…so it’s a non burger? Thanks George! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Me too…but snowgoose lowered the hammer on it. I'd probably feel pretty good in ORH or BOS but way less so in BDL or PVD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Wow…so it’s a non burger? with a high east of Maine and a 981 primary into Michigan? Sell. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 I mean, even if the models throw out HECS after HECS over the next five days, I’m so snakebitten this season that I won’t be able to take them seriously until I see Ryan standing in a business suit in the NBC parking lot weening out in 5”/hr rates. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, Hoth said: I mean, even if the models throw out HECS after HECS over the next five days, I’m so snakebitten this season that I won’t be able to take them seriously until I see Ryan standing in a business suit in the NBC parking lot weening out in 5”/hr rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 I don't get these skeptical posts. Are you not looking at the evolution ,the confluence, the antecedent conditions, the huge amount of low dewpoints and cold air pumping in. Models are all showing the same thing. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'll take any evolution from these models shown at 12z. If nothing else, it's a steady diet of aspects to look at - until very recently, that's been a remarkable challenge, ...unrelenting ennui this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 27 minutes ago, Hoth said: Quick thump to rain. Seasonal trend intact thus far. Which is not a big surprise. Persistence. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: I don't get these skeptical posts. Are you not looking at the evolution ,the confluence, the antecedent conditions, the huge amount of low dewpoints and cold air pumping in. Models are all showing the same thing. I think the NATL side setup is fine but the issue is I cannot see anything to argue for the system ejecting from the SW and Plains to come out flatter or weaker through the Midwest and Lakes which is really what everyone south of 90 or even along it needs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: Which is not a big surprise. Persistence. Congrats on a nice thumping again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said: Which is not a big surprise. Persistence. How much you get last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: How much you get last night? Probably a 8-12" pack too. The horror. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah ...I spoke of this in an earlier post, wrt model comparison... The previous Euro run was doing just that - reiterating. It was slowing the field out ahead of the lead impulse, such that the Dakota's S/W was then forced to catch up... But one additional aspect was that also in the previous Euro run it carried a bit more transient ridge expression through the west, too, which encourage the Dakota's S/W to dive more. Both those two facets appear to have backed away since, however. - at least from what I'm observing ... I'm actually beginning to wonder if this is just heading toward something similar to what we are encountering now... It just smears out and ends up an active baroclinic field along the periphery/interface between the southern height wall and the cold Canadian source. I can see that. I mean when it comes to the wave inhibiting strength of confluence I try to focus on where the deepest (relative) cold anomalies are. If they are collocated with the confluence, out ahead of the amplifying wave--and within the sphere of its would-be warm sector-- that's a pretty damn good indication it will not be able to bend north, in the face of it, and quickly concede to an earlier secondary. This of course is conditional that the confluence is anchored, which is what we are looking at in this case, with a strong -NAO developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: How much you get last night? 4-5” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: I don't get these skeptical posts. Are you not looking at the evolution ,the confluence, the antecedent conditions, the huge amount of low dewpoints and cold air pumping in. Models are all showing the same thing. Well we got METS/and others selling everything at this point S of pike now? Who the F knows anymore… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greenmtnwx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Congrats on a nice thumping again. It was hardly a thumping. The area is hurting badly for snow. Relative to norms it’s downright hideous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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