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Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat


George001
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1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

That's a good point. Possible though currently unlikely. But if what I believe to be a trend of Stronger block-->slower trajectory, that would increase the odds quite a bit vs the current guidance consensus on that aspect.

Point of interest highest for eastern locations.

Yeah ...I spoke of this in an earlier post, wrt model comparison... (Will and I also mentioned yesterday ) The previous Euro run was doing just that - reiterating.   It was slowing the field out ahead of the lead impulse, such that the Dakota's S/W was then forced to catch up...

But one additional aspect was that also in the previous Euro run it carried a bit more transient ridge expression through the west, too, which encourage the Dakota's S/W to dive more. 

Both those two facets appear to have backed away since, however.   - at least from what I'm observing ...

I'm actually beginning to wonder if this is just heading toward something similar to what we are encountering now...  It just smears out and ends up an active baroclinic field along the periphery/interface between the southern height wall and the cold Canadian source.

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not that good for the southern half of CT but just one run. Regardless, I mentioned to pope earlier this morning the hedge is for a CNE max hit, not mid atl. We’ll see though. 

I would agree with that, Some know past results this winter when a strong block has appeared, Not saying its the same this go round but you would have to lean in that direction of it may be less, You're trying to time it when its still building and not relaxing.

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