qg_omega Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: So N MA got more this past Thursday than it will from Mon/Tue system? I'm skeptical but that would be quite a remarkable turn of events if it happened. 4 to 6 day model runs getting to many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 32 minutes ago, TalcottWx said: Tip, do you have a lean in which way you would go for forecasting an overall snowfall swath across Sne right now? Gun to head? If must ... I would call for a light event, or 'minor' on the scale of minor-moderate-major. To me, minor can involve Advisory level and less amounts/impact. Moderate's upper Adv -lower Warn... Major is above that and so on One wild card, which as that implies ... is much lower probability and therefore should not be counted on, is that a stronger relay ...currently coming around the bend over southern Cali and through the SW ... is stronger than previous/recent runs. As I was attempting to describe in that missive, more vorticity kinematics central to that impulse would be an offset to the negative vorticity over the anti-cyclonic curvature - whee the models are attempting to send it over top. I cannot completely exclude that happening, no - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: If must ... I would call for a light event, or 'minor' on the scale of minor-moderate-major. To me, minor can involve Advisory level and less amounts/impact. Moderate's upper Adv -lower Warn... Major is above that and so on One wild card, which as that implies ... is much lower probability and therefore should not be counted on, is that a stronger relay ...currently coming around the bend over southern Cali and through the SW ... is stronger than previous/recent runs. As I was attempting to describe in that missive, more vorticity kinematics central to that impulse would be offset the negative vorticity over the anti-cyclonic curvature the models are attempting to send it over top. I am thinking 3-6" here as a "way too early" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Gfs still looks pretty nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 12z GFS is a tic or two colder helps folks down in SWCT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 9 minutes ago, psv88 said: Funny how people throw out literally every model. “Euro stinks” “GFS blows” “NAM and RGEM are terrible” “UK is awful model” so that leaves the Canadian as the only good model? I mean, it has certainly given me the most fantasy snow over the years so yeah! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Looks to bury the bodies this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 9 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: So N MA got more this past Thursday than it will from Mon/Tue system? I'm skeptical but that would be quite a remarkable turn of events if it happened. in a couple of runs with the Euro yesterday, frequently on the GFS, and here on this RDPS, there is a consistent strip of higher qpf that keeps showing up for western merrimack county and over to Lewiston. I noticed that in the days leading up to Dec 17 2020, a higher strip in similar areas up my way. I take that to mean that we have a chance to maximize accumulation up here. I'm sure Brian and Jeff will have a thought about this. Often we see just the opposite up here in coastal storms where the big bands are off to the east and west of the Merr. River Valley, and we know that is a sign of a local minimum probably related to downsloping in the valley. Perhaps the signal on the current storm reflects long easterly flow running into the hill immediately west of the Merrimack river? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 gfs Is nice here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, ineedsnow said: gfs Is nice here Share? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 32 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Pray for AEMATT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 For the 's 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 This run is a big relief for many. 12z gfs. If euro delivers in a bit, we're stillooking really good IMO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 The mid levels have trended in a much weaker direction over the past day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 sticking with 6-10" for NWCT up to SVT, that hasn't seemed to waver, that SE ridge is what's concerning as far as shredding this out and shooting it SE with that block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, TalcottWx said: The mid levels have trended in a much weaker direction over the past day or two. Which is my I think that 12x gfs run is the absolute ceiling. Likely weaker IMO 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 12z gfs is best case. Let’s hope that plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Canadian is weak sauce. No surprises given its hi res brother. I still want to see the primary s/w stronger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 People are desperate for SNOW. In past years a storm of this caliber wouldn't garner more than a page or two and be lost into the files of yesteryear. Always next year. If I were younger, healthier I'd move to Montana (raise some dental floss) atop a mountain and watch it snow year-round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 GFS had a nice weenie band sig up near the pike to the NH border region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Canadian looks like dung Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 33 minutes ago, psv88 said: Funny how people throw out literally every model. “Euro stinks” “GFS blows” “NAM and RGEM are terrible” “UK is awful model” so that leaves the Canadian as the only good model? Not necessarily. It's just understanding when and where they should be used. It's pretty common knowledge that the NAM blows except in the short range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GFS had a nice weenie band sig up near the pike to the NH border region. All guidance minus the gfs has looked really bad at 12z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: All guidance minus the gfs has looked really bad at 12z Yeah, not what we wanted to see. To get those higher end outcomes it’s a good sign to see the mesos going nuts at this stage. I did like seeing the nam bump north though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 6 minutes ago, George001 said: Yeah, not what we wanted to see. To get those higher end outcomes it’s a good sign to see the mesos going nuts at this stage. I did like seeing the nam bump north though. I was fine with most guidance this morning minus the Canadian twins. We’ll see what ukie and euro do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 I thought 12z looked much better tbh. Enhancement from ivt or whatever process seems evident. I’m expecting 6-9 inches for mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Meh compared to what could of been but this year we take! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digityman Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 32 minutes ago, dryslot said: For the 's I'd take that 10+... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Ukie is definitely not going to get it done for us easterners. Good run for CT though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Ukie is definitely not going to get it done for us easterners. Good run for CT though. 12z UKMET. There has been a very consistent signal for a snowfall max in western CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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