RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Don’t worry, we still have 84hrs of the nam to bring this north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 If 3-6 is the ceiling for this storm I think I’d rather chase the futility record…Or second least snowiest all time whatever it turns out to be.. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 On 2/24/2023 at 7:59 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Don’t worry, we still have 84hrs of the nam to bring this north. Expand I thought the models would more likely adjust south , the thing is ..if the short wave was also *sheared ( not just south) it would have even been significantly worse as someone else alluded to. I’ll hope it tickles a tad north but not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 On 2/24/2023 at 8:01 PM, Cyclone-68 said: If 3-6 is the ceiling for this storm I think I’d rather chase the futility record…Or second least snowiest all time whatever it turns out to be.. Expand Not even. I think we are at 3rd least if winter were to end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 On 2/24/2023 at 8:01 PM, Cyclone-68 said: If 3-6 is the ceiling for this storm I think I’d rather chase the futility record…Or second least snowiest all time whatever it turns out to be.. Expand There are a lot of CT posters who would gladly take that much. Anything over 4" snowfall and I'll be happy because my kid and his friends have had very short sledding windows. Now we have the ice base and some snow on top would be awesome. I'll track storms a week out but I generally don't get too invested until inside of 72 hours. If this ends up being pedestrian it's by no means a bust, to me, because the big potential, still needed a lot of moving parts to come together. To me "busts" only occur inside of 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 On 2/24/2023 at 8:23 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: There are a lot of CT posters who would gladly take that much. Anything over 4" snowfall and I'll be happy because my kid and his friends have had very short sledding windows. Now we have the ice base and some snow on top would be awesome. I'll track storms a week out but I generally don't get too invested until inside of 72 hours. If this ends up being pedestrian it's by no means a bust, to me, because the big potential, still needed a lot of moving parts to come together. To me "busts" only occur inside of 48 hours. Expand Meh..3-6 is like kissing your sister but I understand mine is likely the minority opinion..if I had kids like you I might look at it differently to be honest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 On 2/24/2023 at 8:12 PM, CoastalWx said: Not even. I think we are at 3rd least if winter were to end. Expand Least snowy for all of southern ct and it’s not even close. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 On 2/24/2023 at 8:34 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: Least snowy for all of southern ct and it’s not even close. Expand Yeah, gotta get you guys help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 On 2/24/2023 at 8:37 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah, gotta get you guys help. Expand Maybe if we starve the world and produce less Co2 we can get them a few more inches 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 On 2/24/2023 at 8:01 PM, Cyclone-68 said: If 3-6 is the ceiling for this storm I think I’d rather chase the futility record…Or second least snowiest all time whatever it turns out to be.. Expand that's the spirit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 On 2/24/2023 at 8:37 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah, gotta get you guys help. Expand My gut says he gets it! Would be nice to get S CT peeps in on the action. Hell, bring NYC into the party. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12WX Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 GFS is a SWFE. We all know QPF is modeled high in those. 6-8". Euro is a whiff. Let's just whiff completely at this point. At the point in the season where give me a foot plus or stay away. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 They running the 18z NAM off the Trash 80 today? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 On 2/24/2023 at 8:23 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: There are a lot of CT posters who would gladly take that much. Anything over 4" snowfall and I'll be happy because my kid and his friends have had very short sledding windows. Now we have the ice base and some snow on top would be awesome. I'll track storms a week out but I generally don't get too invested until inside of 72 hours. If this ends up being pedestrian it's by no means a bust, to me, because the big potential, still needed a lot of moving parts to come together. To me "busts" only occur inside of 48 hours. Expand Local brewery out here had to close off their sledding hill for today because of the ice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 On 2/24/2023 at 7:56 PM, TalcottWx said: No one is stupid. I am saying it is stupid to be enthralled by a single euro run at that range. It was ultimately still in clown range. If that's the case, there shouldn't have been what seems to be a needlessly emotional investment over 100+ hours out. Those runs should have been taken with a grain of salt. Hard to be disappointed if that's the case IMO. Expand It was more than a single Euro run suggesting over a foot of snow and it was not in clown range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 On 2/24/2023 at 9:03 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: It was more than a single Euro run suggesting over a foot of snow and it was not in clown range. Expand Yeah the 12-18” runs were on several cycles and models. Only that one crazy run with like 30 inches was on the euro about 6 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 On 2/24/2023 at 9:06 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the 12-18” runs were on several cycles and models. Only that one crazy run with like 30 inches was on the euro about 6 days out. Expand Yea...obviously 40" wasn't happening, but this fraudulent hindsight that 15" or so was never realistic is nauseating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 On 2/24/2023 at 8:57 PM, ORH_wxman said: They running the 18z NAM off the Trash 80 today? Expand Looked warm and north at hr84, as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 On 2/24/2023 at 9:08 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea...obviously 40" wasn't happening, but this fraudulent hindsight that 15" or so was never realistic is nauseating. Expand I still think 15” is possible. I wouldn’t forecast it but it’s foolish to automatically rule it out. All it takes a strong WCB thump of 8-10” and then limp to another 5-6” with a pseudo-CCB/IVT over 12 hours. Again, I think that’s becoming less likely, but it isn’t outside the envelope of realistic solutions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 On 2/24/2023 at 9:08 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Looked warm and north at hr84, as expected. Expand Yeah that was really amped. But NAM at 84…lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 On 2/24/2023 at 9:08 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Looked warm and north at hr84 as expected. Expand Both the NAM and the RGEM look like weak sauce, especially since the coastal low is projected to move due east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 On 2/24/2023 at 9:08 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea...obviously 40" wasn't happening, but this fraudulent hindsight that 15" or so was never realistic is nauseating. Expand If you would have never put out a forecast at that range for 15" of snow, I'd argue that outcome isn't considered very realistic yet. Maybe I'm approaching this the wrong way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Icon was a bit more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 24, 2023 Author Share Posted February 24, 2023 On 2/24/2023 at 9:20 PM, ORH_wxman said: Icon was a bit more amped. Expand Yesterday it was north, today it went south, and now it’s going to come back north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Happy hour nuances. Much better clarity 12z tomorrow I think. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 On 2/24/2023 at 8:30 PM, Cyclone-68 said: Meh..3-6 is like kissing your sister but I understand mine is likely the minority opinion..if I had kids like you I might look at it differently to be honest Expand Maybe. In 2007-08 we had 12 such events that totaled 44". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 GFS is now a SWFE lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Gfs warmer in wct. Euro on an island yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 On 2/24/2023 at 9:57 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Gfs warmer in wct. Euro on an island yet again. Expand A compromise would be good. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 On 2/24/2023 at 9:57 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Gfs warmer in wct. Euro on an island yet again. Expand Euro has some support 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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