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Feb 28th-March 1st long duration Miller B threat

George001

By George001,
in New England

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George001
George001

It’s coming, the models had this storm cutting for a while but over the past few cycles it redeveloped further and further south. Now it is looking like a full blown Miller B, with the models showing

ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m letting George keep this thread under the condition that he’s banned if the storm shits the bed. 

George001
George001

Welp, it was fun tracking with you guys. Unfortunately, it looks like I will end up busting one too many times. The low is barely even there on the Euro, went from 12-18 a couple days ago to the low j

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Sey-Mour Snow

Sey-Mour Snow

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Tenths?

 

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s a cool feature. Didn’t know they had 50th percentile on wxbell. In many senses, that is superior to a mean. 

Ya it is, They just added it Tuesday. 
 

12z for example takes away the edges which are only there bc of the outlier southern or northernmost solutions 

 

E8CD6DA8-D597-46FE-A1CB-83B973EED2C0.png

0017B4E4-CF56-428D-A84C-CAF9E9ACDC21.png

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s a cool feature. Didn’t know they had 50th percentile on wxbell. In many senses, that is superior to a mean. 

I take it 50th percentile = median?

Definitely informative if you have some outliers like e19... in this case mean ≈ median gives more confidence to toss those outliers. Caveat being the entire ens/op could be off.

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dmcginvt

dmcginvt

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

I take it 50th percentile = median?

Definitely informative if you have some outliers like e19... in this case mean ≈ median gives more confidence to toss those outliers. Caveat being the entire ens/op could be off.

I actually thought the same mean is average so median would be middle what s the mode?

  

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

I take it 50th percentile = median?

Definitely informative if you have some outliers like e19... in this case mean ≈ median gives more confidence to toss those outliers. Caveat being the entire ens/op could be off.

Correct. Yeah I’m this storm there is good clustered agreement which is why the mean and median are roughly the same, but in storms with more disagreement, they will definitely diverge some. 

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George001

George001

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Posted
14 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

George, I’m hurt by this!

And I have bad news, if I’m raining, so are you. :lol:

If that’s the case, I want to rain too! You made the Pope angry, you must atone for your sins. I will gladly give up my 20 inches of snow as a sacrifice to or lord and savior, the Pope. I was once an atheist myself, but the Pope showed me the way by being the only 100% accurate meteorologist to ever walk this earth. No mere mortal can predict what Mother Nature will do with anywhere near that degree of accuracy, but the Pope can and does simply by observing the behavior of geese! To me, that is proof that a higher power exists. One cannot have that level of insight about Mother Nature without some form of divine intervention. Fuck it, I want to see the low trend so far north it’s in Greenland.

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dmcginvt

dmcginvt

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, George001 said:

If that’s the case, I want to rain too! You made the Pope angry, you must atone for your sins. I will gladly give up my 20 inches of snow as a sacrifice to or lord and savior, the Pope. I was once an atheist myself, but the Pope showed me the way by being the only 100% accurate meteorologist to ever walk this earth. No mere mortal can predict what Mother Nature will do with anywhere near that degree of accuracy, but the Pope can and does simply by observing the behavior of geese! To me, that is proof that a higher power exists. One cannot have that level of insight about Mother Nature without some form of divine intervention. I want to see the low trend so far north it’s in Greenland.

Jorge has officially lost it.  I deem him Jorge from this day forward.  It's his baptismal name

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dmcginvt

dmcginvt

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, dmcginvt said:

Sorry I'm 54 and forgot all this stuff.  Just remembered the 3m's.  Mean median mode.  Is mode used in meteorology?

 

 

It must be as the most likely scenario.  Its the one that shows up most so you have to go with it!  Is this how the NBM works?  This is both ridiculous and serious!!

 

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Sey-Mour Snow

Sey-Mour Snow

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, George001 said:

If that’s the case, I want to rain too! You made the Pope angry, you must atone for your sins. I will gladly give up my 20 inches of snow as a sacrifice to or lord and savior, the Pope. I was once an atheist myself, but the Pope showed me the way by being the only 100% accurate meteorologist to ever walk this earth. No mere mortal can predict what Mother Nature will do with anywhere near that degree of accuracy, but the Pope can and does simply by observing the behavior of geese! To me, that is proof that a higher power exists. One cannot have that level of insight about Mother Nature without some form of divine intervention. Fuck it, I want to see the low trend so far north it’s in Greenland.

Either you are drunk, high, both, or this is a burner account. 

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

We use it for work and its easy to remember like this

MOde - MOst

MEDian - Middle

Mean - only one left is average

My students don’t know how to do an average of 3 numbers.   But they can determine mean, median, and mode. 
 

It is very weird.     When I show them that average is the same as mean they look at me like I have 3 heads   And I get they have technical definitions that are a bit different.  

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dmcginvt

dmcginvt

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

My students don’t know how to do an average of 3 numbers.   But they can determine mean, median, and mode. 
 

It is very weird.     When I show them that average is the same as mean they look at me like I have 3 heads   And I get they have technical definitions that are a bit different.  

What part of the english language dont they get about speaking the english language.   Everything means nothing and nothing is everything. Too many meanings for the same thing.  Homonyms homophobes, synofibs?  Yup made that one up.  Anyway, I loved math but I totally understood people who didnt get it.  It's the wording.  

 

 

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, dmcginvt said:

What part of the english language dont they get about speaking the english language.   Everything means nothing and nothing is everything. Too many meanings for the same thing.  Homonyms homophobes, synofibs?  Yup made that one up.  Anyway, I loved math but I totally understood people who didnt get it.  It's the wording.  

 

 

Tell me about it.  And then when they need to learn about how their is a nucleus in a cell that is different than an atomic nucleus, fuggetabowtit 

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dmcginvt

dmcginvt

Posted
Posted
22 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Is Georgie trying to pull some reverse psychology on himself? Convince yourself you want it to rain, so if it does you're ok, but then if it snows the pants tent gets a hole ripped in it? 

{"it is likely we are looking at a New England blizzard, with the potential to become a historic blizzard (top 10 all time) in the Boston area."}

 

What does the latest model say, there is your answer.  The irony is, it's what's most of us except experienced mets do, we read the model poorly.  Some of us are better than others at it.  Meaning we can actually read it.  And not take it as gospel.  George likes to turn it into hyperbole.  Biggest blizzard ever,  Im waiting for it George.  Top 10 baby.

I will sit here all night waiting

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Ed, snow and hurricane fan

Ed, snow and hurricane fan

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Tell me about it.  And then when they need to learn about how their is a nucleus in a cell that is different than an atomic nucleus, fuggetabowtit 

I taught 6th science for 3 years, eukaryotes and prokaryotes, 'pro' rhymes with 'no', 'eu' with do, and almost half will still get which one has a nucleus wrong.

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