Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: ...I’ll add that it’s still possible we see some bigger totals. That trailing shortwave was close on some of the 12z runs today so far. The NAO is a fickle index, too. It's like the last remaining frontier for discovery in how the f to figure what the f it's doing next. The best laid plans and most brilliant crafted insights are at times sorely just like ...ignored LOL, and some other shit happens. The reason for this - I know you didn't ask for this ... I'm just sayn' - is because the NAO happens by way of the "non -linear wave function" down stream of the Pacific N/A pattern. What that means is simpler than it sounds. One may typically think A--> B--> C--> as the cause and effect chain of events. And they are right, for linear wave function relationships. NON linear is when A--> B has an effect on D ... but not C in between. A similar/analog to help visualize this is in the open sea: rogue wave phenomenon. A sea surface with an apparent orderly 20' swell may suddenly lurch up a 70' monster wave, and the surrounding 20' wave's are reduced in height temporarily while the energy of the monster exhausts. Crude model.. Most of what happens in the atmosphere is both linear and non-linear wave mechanics happening simultaneously in perpetuity... and they are emergent properties out in time, too - which means fractals... and good luck. This is why NAOs demonstrate the stochastic behavior they do... More so than other indexes, that one has a greater non-linearity just by circumstance of where the domain is situated down stream of all that's great and wonderful about our planetary atmospheric system. Having said all this... It's not impossible that its exertion next week is not handled as well as it looks in the guidance from still 5 days away. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Turned out to be a great run even outside of Pike region. A little reliant on norlun type snows out here but sign me up for 8-12”. Sure did....at this point just happy being where we are at this point. This entire winter would have had this even disappear or turn into a straight rainer by now. At 4 inches all season, even a 4-8 inch storm would be great. Still around 4 days to go, would feel worse being in the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Wiz sees both sides of the proverbial coin. He does an excellent job of giving his thoughts on potential weather events. He should have his own Twitch channel so we can all tune in! ehhh I'm not that good with winter weather, but I try to look at it from an objective side and not let one or two products influence my thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Anyone who was buying the 20-30" amounts from yesterday this far out should do some yoga or smash therapy or something I wouldn't rule it out at all, if the 1.5" + qpf amounts and stubborn ivt idea is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Is this storm good for Syracuse NY too? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 28 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. A little warm/sloppy for SWCT initially. Thump Snow to sleet back to weak snow verbatim. we are in the worst spot in the forum for this one.. sucks need some more NAO help or else would be a lot of mixing verbatim here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, sferic said: Is this storm good for Syracuse NY too? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Turned out to be a great run even outside of Pike region. A little reliant on norlun type snows out here but sign me up for 8-12”. Take it in hot minute…great Euro run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said: I wouldn't rule it out at all, if the 1.5" + qpf amounts and stubborn ivt idea is correct. Yeah it’s definitely possible some places score huge totals in this but it requires many things to go right. So obviously one shouldn’t *expect* it. All model guidance has the initial thump…that’s gonna produce low end warning totals on its own most likely. 5-8/6-10 type stuff. Now if we’re trying to go 12-18, that requires a bit of extra forcing from IVT or CCB…the two kind of smear together eventually in the euro but most guidance has at least a semblance of CCB snow…esp up in MA. So there’s a reason to think at least some areas are going to get double digits…where that is widespread or not remains to be seen but it’s certainly on the table. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 44 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: My guess is many were secretly starting to get attached to the thought of a 20-burger storm after yesterday’s Euro and all other guidance had been trending better too. The natural inclination is to sort of expect it to keep trending better so when it reverts back to a more “mundane” 8-12 inch type event, it produces a sense of disappointment. It’s hard not to get attached to big solutions…esp when it comes from the Euro inside of 6 days. I’ll add that it’s still possible we see some bigger totals. That trailing shortwave was close on some of the 12z runs today so far. Rock n roll Kuchie Koo 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: we are in the worst spot in the forum for this one.. sucks need some more NAO help The initial thump turned to IP was good and then the backside norlun type snows was nice. Some messy mix in between probably cut it back some but it ended up fine. I hate to rely on backside fanny snows but we’ll cross that bridge in 2-3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: The initial thump turned to IP was good and then the backside norlun type snows was nice. Some messy mix in between probably cut it back some but it ended up fine. I hate to rely on backside fanny snows but we’ll cross that bridge in 2-3 days. ya I agree, would like to get those funky warm layers well SW of us... I'll take a 4-8" thump then some IVT Tuesday all day though.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Rock n roll Kuchie Koo Lol. Seymore snow is not getting 20+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Lol. Seymore snow is not getting 20+. Lol that Kuchera temp profile is the weeniest algorithm ever. 20” on about 1.1” precip.. and a quarter of that with mid levels torched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 26 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: What I hate about this is the flow is so fast and as the shortwave flies across the country it opens up, flattens out, and the main low rapidly occludes. Of course the other issue is the models have been rather horrific lately with the evolution of the pattern into the medium range and the synoptic details so it's been increasingly difficult to take any merit looking a few days out. My initial thinking is the best best for heavy widespread precipitation will be with the front end with strong WAA and everything after that is just shredded crap. Relying on something like an IVT or hoping for the secondary to pop exactly where we want/need it is like trying to connect a hail mary from your own 30 with below-average arm strength. We've seen this modeled setup several times over the past few years. Be honest, what you hate most is that you missed out on that EF2 in Jersey the other day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 47 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Is this even remotely true from Stein? I have never heard anything like this Steinsense there would be no possible way to analyze that, too many variables 43 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: That is absolutely true. That is a well known fact. link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Lol. Seymore snow is not getting 20+. That might be the worst product ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 25 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Wiz just took a sledge hammer to this threat Anytime Wiz is a downer in a big storm go oppo. He pumps the crap and downs the great setups. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Kuchera is better in marginal events like last night. It almost always weenies out too much in colder events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Rock n roll Kuchie Koo 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it’s definitely possible some places score huge totals in this but it requires many things to go right. So obviously one shouldn’t *expect* it. All model guidance has the initial thump…that’s gonna produce low end warning totals on its own most likely. 5-8/6-10 type stuff. Now if we’re trying to go 12-18, that requires a bit of extra forcing from IVT or CCB…the two kind of smear together eventually in the euro but most guidance has at least a semblance of CCB snow…esp up in MA. So there’s a reason to think at least some areas are going to get double digits…where that is widespread or not remains to be seen but it’s certainly on the table. There are many unknowns of course, but we often see much higher totals that are sort of "unexpected in that D3-5 range. can't expect great ratios but even 12:1 or 15:1 isn't impossible especially if PM/night Tuesday into Wednesday with the ivt, again if that pans out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Cut that Kuchera map down by at least half, front end is going to be paste. Back end, sure, you'd see 12-15:1 ratios most likely. Even though it's a very nice run for the Pike region, I don't think it does much to quell concerns: you get a quick front end thump and then you're banking on fickle IVT snows from a late developing coastal. Flow is still very progressive. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 24 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Wiz sees both sides of the proverbial coin. He does an excellent job of giving his thoughts on potential weather events. He should have his own Twitch channel so we can all tune in! How come you measure an inch more than Ray in every storm. Do you use the Zonties ruler? Slant sticking since 1717? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: ya I agree, would like to get those funky warm layers well SW of us... I'll take a 4-8" thump then some IVT Tuesday all day though.. 108hr is -5c at 925, 27F at surface so there must be funky warmth in there somewhere if we’re IP. I’m getting ahead of myself micro analyzing it though so you’re right…let’s get the blocking to keep trending or hold serve first until we are inside D3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 108hr is -5c at 925, 27F at surface so there must be funky warmth in there somewhere if we’re IP. I’m getting ahead of myself micro analyzing it though so you’re right…let’s get the blocking to keep trending or hold serve first until we we are inside D3. Ya I already looked it’s between 750-800 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: I love posting it. It squirms the shit out of people. Just makes them throw objects around. Let's fucking go 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, Hoth said: Be honest, what you hate most is that you missed out on that EF2 in Jersey the other day. It was a pretty interesting setup when looking at the models the day before. I wasn't thinking tornado, but thought damaging wind gusts/hail would be possible. Dynamics were quite strong with very steep lapse rates. 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Anytime Wiz is a downer in a big storm go oppo. He pumps the crap and downs the great setups. Not totally true, but that did happen two winters ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 35 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Most of RI and N CT with close to a foot I’d take 5-6 at this point and be happy 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said: Cut that Kuchera map down by at least half, front end is going to be paste. Even though it's a very nice run for the Pike region, I don't think it does much to quell concerns: you get a quick front end thump and then you're banking on fickle IVT snows from a late developing coastal. Flow is still very progressive. Coastal.is developing at 989 off Delaware, late? That's classic here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: It was a pretty interesting setup when looking at the models the day before. I wasn't thinking tornado, but thought damaging wind gusts/hail would be possible. Dynamics were quite strong with very steep lapse rates. Not totally true, but that did happen two winters ago. Just busting but dig a little deeper and tell me the synoptic setup doesn't produce plow able from CT to NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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