dryslot Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 These are the times when some people get nervous and start throwing out the cliche of this can only get so far N/S.....ha ha. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Then why does the EPS mean have a bend north and west (this trended at 6Z). GEFS often go S and E. Some members with much less blocking? I mean, they are possible, but I don't see any reason to buy into those at the moment, given the trends and forecast teleconnections. That's just me. Then there are others that show more, hence the mean, with E trajectory. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, jaf said: Would that block allow the other shortwave to catch up and phase, or is that still unlikely? That's a good point. Possible though currently unlikely. But if what I believe to be a trend of Stronger block-->slower trajectory, that would increase the odds quite a bit vs the current guidance consensus on that aspect. Point of interest highest for eastern locations. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Well given the growing skepticism the 12z and 18z should be interesting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 21 minutes ago, jaf said: Would that block allow the other shortwave to catch up and phase, or is that still unlikely? Great question. When blocks get strong, and systems slow down, significant things can happen… And things can get very interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 21 minutes ago, dryslot said: These are the times when some people get nervous and start throwing out the cliche of this can only get so far N/S.....ha ha. Sometimes that's true. There was a 2010s March where everything was suppressed due to confluence. However for this one I think it's more likely to trend north over time. Gonna try hard not to jump off a cliff when it's 40F and rain down here while SNE gets a major snowstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Icon skipping a ton of panels, but overall, looks kind of progressive? Looks like heaviest snow axis is from the Berks down through SE Mass on kind of a southeast trajectory 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Icon skipping a ton of panels, but overall, looks kind of progressive? Looks like heaviest snow axis is from the Berks down through SE Mass on kind of a southeast trajectory Crushed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 22 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: Well given the growing skepticism the 12z and 18z should be interesting. Who is skeptical? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 wow, this thread is a graveyard compared to yesterday! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Crushed Ginx…can you show it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 23, 2023 Author Share Posted February 23, 2023 Yeah the models arent showing what the Euro did yesterday, but the important thing is they moved away from the cutter and are showing a Miller B now. Im not buying a progressive solution at all, in my opinion they will start trending back to yesterday’s Euro run over the next couple of days due to the blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12WX Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Who is skeptical? I am for my backyard. I like where you sit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Gotta say it always makes me a little uncomfortable having the primary hold together so far north. Is there a risk of warmer air aloft working in down here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Hoth said: Gotta say it always makes me a little uncomfortable having the primary hold together so far north. Is there a risk of warmer air aloft working in down here? I also am wondering if the primary holding on longer is going to be better for the WOR crowd, as the icon kind of displays. Like I mentioned a few posts up, the heavy snow axis has a NW to SE trajectory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ginx…can you show it? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Ginx…can you show it? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I also am wondering if the primary holding on longer is going to be better for the WOR crowd, as the icon kind of displays. Like I mentioned a few posts up, the heavy snow axis has a NW to SE trajectory Interesting. I was worried about the temps aloft perhaps being marginal if the primary doesn’t fizzle down in Ohio. I guess the high is in a decent spot though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, JKEisMan said: Crushed is a subjective term obviously, but to me that’s a nice moderate storm, not crushed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 GFS has more confluence so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Primary to me is a bit further north of the 06z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 9 minutes ago, JKEisMan said: Moderate/pack-refresher type event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, dryslot said: Primary to me is a bit further north of the 06z run. Does that mean a more northern transfer to the secondary? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 23, 2023 Author Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, dryslot said: Primary to me is a bit further north of the 06z run, Is it just me or does the northern shortwave look closer to phasing in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, tunafish said: Does that mean a more northern transfer to the secondary? It should, It looks like the confluence is a bit less this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Yea. Gfs will be more north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, George001 said: Is it just me or does the northern shortwave look closer to phasing in? No, The primary gets further north into the lakes this run but the results in the transfer look about the same. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Good event inland and pike north. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Good event inland and pike north. Lol you do really well verbatim but yea, a tick north with the primary holding stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Mixing issues probably to about Plymouth this run. If that primary holds any longer, look out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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