ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 06z eps looking good. Maybe a little north of 00z 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, MJO812 said: MJO on the Euro going into 8 at a good amplitude Slow track..been en route since Halloween 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: 06z eps looking good. Maybe a little north of 00z Nice. Thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 EPS looked nice. May be some issues on coast and cape initially but a longer duration event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 9 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Considering I have .8 inches of snow for the season what these models are showing will feel historic to me lol a 2-4 inch snowfall would be a HECS this year. Haven't cleared driveway snow in over a year here 1 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 The battles here are funny. I will delightfully take a 6-10 event if that happens. Christ. 5 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: From an IMBY standpoint, the last 12 hours of trends have sucked in two ways....more progressive...ie less intense and faster due to 50/50 AND further south. It does look to progressive, There was a couple phase bomb runs that some fell for, Honestly, The block is squeezing this next one more in a ESE trajectory below SNE which is no good up here, To much confluence right now for my liking, Now if that's over modeled, Then it will change things some going forward, Better chance most in SNE will finally get a decent event to ward off futility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 And yes, 06z EPS was a tick or two north. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The battles here are funny. I will delightfully take a 6-10 event if that happens. Christ. I could care less who Jacks. I want plowable snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Slow track..been en route since Halloween It took a vacation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: It does look to progressive, There was a couple phase bomb runs that some fell for, Honestly, The block is squeezing this next one more in a ESE trajectory below SNE which is no good up here, To much confluence right now for my liking, Now if that's over modeled, Then it will change things some going forward, Better chance most in SNE will finally get a decent event to ward off futility. I don't think anyone expected 40", but it's a testament to the ceiling here with this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The battles here are funny. I will delightfully take a 6-10 event if that happens. Christ. I don’t see anyone battling. Just calling it like it is. I always thought folks should be cautious over the big euro run yesterday, which proved to be true by the next few runs and model suites. I don’t think you’ll hear a single person complain if this ends up 6-10, which I think is likely. The 12+ stuff was always a pipe dream IMO, until you are very close in and have good consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS looked nice. May be some issues on coast and cape initially but a longer duration event. Longer duration is a catch 22...its great if it's a phased solution that slows....but a long duration of 8" just means you never get fun rates lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: I don’t see anyone battling. Just calling it like it is. I always thought folks should be cautious over the big euro run yesterday, which proved to be true by the next few runs and model suites. I don’t think you’ll hear a single person complain if this ends up 6-10, which I think is likely. The 12+ stuff was always a pipe dream IMO, until you are very close in and have good consensus. Over 12" is not a pipe dream. 30" is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS looked nice. May be some issues on coast and cape initially but a longer duration event. 06z GEFs was an important improvement comparing the 00z prior - It's more ominous and cleaner committed to a 2ndary, with several members in the mid 980s SE of ACK. One errant hopeful is 972 near P-town. You know ...should we get a consistent consensus here, we can start considering other interesting aspects ( which we will anyway, who am I kidding LOL ) ... But, the antecedent air mass being cold as Will's pointed out, and high situated N-NE of Maine ..stalled and pinned by -NAO, OES may kick off. It looks like a straight W fetch, but doing so with air that has not actually sat over the water so long that it's been hugely moderated. Also, this whole approach and pivot takes time, so the event finds a way of imposing a longer duration that way. Just some early thoughts on how to get greedy hahaha.. seriously tho 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: 06z GEFs was an important improvement comparing the 00z prior - It's more ominous and cleaner committed to a 2ndary, with several members in the mid 980s SE of ACK. One errant hopeful is 972 near P-town. You know ...should we get a consistent consensus here, we can start considering other interesting aspects ( which we will anyway, who am I kidding LOL ) ... But, the antecedent air mass being cold as Will's pointed out, and high situated N-NE of Maine ..stalled and pinned by -NAO, that OES may kick off. It looks like a straight W fetch, but doing so with air that has not actually sat over the water so long that it's been hugely moderates. Also, this whole approach and pivot takes time, so the event finds a way of longer duration that way. Just some early thoughts on how to get greedy hahaha.. seriously tho I'm hoping for some oes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Longer duration is a catch 22...its great if it's a phased solution that slows....but a long duration of 8" just means you never get fun rates lol I’ll take anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’ll take anything. Long duration is always higher stakes to me because of the dichotomous nature in which I perceive it..its either a stalled tempest, or one of those protracted ordeal that Kevin loves that breed debates about measuring technique...to swipe and clear or not to swipe and clear lol Like 9" over 3 days, never more than 1/2" per hour or 7" depth 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The battles here are funny. I will delightfully take a 6-10 event if that happens. Christ. Same. The middle of that range would double my snowfall for the year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 You can feel the better board vibes with an impending snower after months of arguing, melting, fighting, geese killing…just happier weenies finally. We’ll need this to hold now though or it could be armageddon. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You can see the better board vibes with an impending snower after months of arguing, melting, fighting, geese killing…just happier weenies finally. We’ll need this to hold now though or it could be armageddon. Eh...we always have the draft to fall back on lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: You can feel the better board vibes with an impending snower after months of arguing, melting, fighting, geese killing…just happier weenies finally. We’ll need this to hold now though or it could be armageddon. It does feel like there’s some real hope on the board for the first time in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 06z eps looking good. Maybe a little north of 00z Looks like the east leaning members converged back to the west. Going to introduce p-type issues near the coast if that holds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The battles here are funny. I will delightfully take a 6-10 event if that happens. Christ. I am looking forward to this, rare that I can say I can double my entire season snowfall in March with 1.5 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 I'll be skiing next week up north for the best storm of the season in CNE/SNE. Figures. Kinda hoping this one is less of a monster and we save the energy for a bigger event when I'm back next weekend. Regardless, looks like a nice event for most of the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said: Looks like the east leaning members converged back to the west. Going to introduce p-type issues near the coast if that holds. I am in SW CT so my biggest fear. I would be happy with a sloppy 1 to 3. Just hope this does not trend where my area is all rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 I'll be shocked if this verifies but local mets did mention a possibility of a plowable event. This is 4-5days out so that's promising. Part of me still thinks we'll get our reg 1-3" / 2-4" out of this like it's been all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, subdude said: I'll be shocked if this verifies but local mets did mention a possibility of a plowable event. This is 4-5days out so that's promising. Part of me still thinks we'll get our reg 1-3" / 2-4" out of this like it's been all season. I think plowable is more probable than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12WX Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Well that was fun while it lasted. Guess I still won't be using my snowblower this winter. Note: count me solidly in the skeptical camp. The 12z Euro & 18z GFS were great because of the 850mb firehose from the east-southeast. That has trended downhill since. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 At this stage of the season “go big or go home” 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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