March 2023 Obs/Disco

[brooklynwx99]

45 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I guess by "high end", I mean the type of season where I end up with like 90"+...

it was more prolific NYC south. NYC had 44.7" and BWI had 43.0"

makes sense when you had this pattern for the last three months of the season. basically 2009-10 lite

[Torch Tiger]

Yeah mentioned Saturday in the Napril thread (Apr 1), look somewhat interesting WOR

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Is the spring barrier still a thing? Lots of April Niño guesses. Watched many an April Nino prediction go down in flames.

@GaWxin El Nino thread notes a recent (2017) April El Niño forecast that did not verify.  I don't think the state of ENSO mid to long range forecasts has improved that much in six years.

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

Too bad rn for saturday.

Snow in the morning ..rain after 1pm is what they’re saying at the moment. No worries…we’ll get Thursday and Friday in..anything is a bonus at this point. 

[Damage In Tolland]

56 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

No power for the UConn game?

Lol. Blackouts 

[weatherwiz]

IIRC correctly, the 2015-2016 EL Nino...weren't initial projects for a weak EL Nino or am I remembering incorrectly? 

[PowderBeard]

55 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Crystal is looking vulnerable now. Probably go out in a week or so

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk
 

Yes, it is a minute from our place. Hopefully soon since I want to take the boat out before my first tournament, need to test a few upgrades.

[ORH_wxman]

17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

IIRC correctly, the 2015-2016 EL Nino...weren't initial projects for a weak EL Nino or am I remembering incorrectly? 

You are remembering incorrectly...that looked like a strong Nino pretty quickly once we got past the spring barrier.

[GaWx]

25 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

@GaWxin El Nino thread notes a recent (2017) April El Niño forecast that did not verify.  I don't think the state of ENSO mid to long range forecasts has improved that much in six years.

 I feel there's a good chance for El Nino later this year. However, based mainly on the models I felt the same way throughout the spring of 2017 for later that year (as did the CPC, JB and many others). It took me til July to give up on an oncoming El Nino that year. It turned out there was La Niña that fall/winter! So, I know never to bet anything close to the ranch on the upcoming fall/winter ENSO state this early due to unpredictability. I may bet on it, but not too heavily.

 Here is the AmericanWx 2017 ENSO thread, which illustrates well the epic failure of the spring 2017 model forecasts that suggested a very good chance for El Niño by summer:

 From that thread, this post from 9/13/2017 summed it up very well:

"How can it be that we went from a good chance at an El Nino, to now a very good chance at a La Nina? Is it that unpredictable?"

[weathafella]

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nice was I naked?

You did have a fig leaf…..

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I feel there's a good chance for El Nino later this year. However, based mainly on the models I felt the same way throughout the spring of 2017 for later that year (as did the CPC, JB and many others). It took me til July to give up on an oncoming El Nino that year. It turned out there was La Niña that fall/winter! So, I know never to bet anything close to the ranch on the upcoming fall/winter ENSO state this early due to unpredictability. I may bet on it, but not too heavily.

 Here is the AmericanWx 2017 ENSO thread, which illustrates well the epic failure of the spring 2017 model forecasts that suggested a very good chance for El Niño by summer:

 From that thread, this post from 9/13/2017 summed it up very well:

"How can it be that we went from a good chance at an El Nino, to now a very good chance at a La Nina? Is it that unpredictable?"

There's a reason they call it "The Spring Barrier".....our ENSO forecasts are really bad prior to early summer.

Though at least in this case, we have a historical precedent that La Nina is extremely unlikely.

[forkyfork]

"march is a winter month!"

it used to be a winter month <3 

[Cold Miser]

44 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Lol. Blackouts 

You should go watch it at the Gamp.
https://uconnhuskies.evenue.net/cgi-bin/ncommerce3/SEGetEventInfo?ticketCode=PR%3AUCONN%3ABB22%3AFFW%3AFFW&linkID=uconn&shopperContext=&caller=PR&appCode=&prc=FFW&ppc=FFW&dataAccId=415&locale=en_US&siteId=ev_uconn

[STILL N OF PIKE]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's a reason they call it "The Spring Barrier".....our ENSO forecasts are really bad prior to early summer.

Though at least in this case, we have a historical precedent that La Nina is extremely unlikely.

Looks like I’ll check back in June

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

"march is a winter month!"

it used to be a winter month <3 

Yeah I really miss those 1870s Marches I experienced as a kid. It's a bummer we don't get those anymore.

[forkyfork]

did the climate really change if you weren't alive when it was colder

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

did the climate really change if you weren't alive when it was colder

The whole "march is more of a winter" month narrative didn't come from a bunch of 1870s weenies....it came from people experiencing March in the past 3 decades who post on here.

[brooklynwx99]

winter is over forever. might as well close up shop. base state and all

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

IIRC correctly, the 2015-2016 EL Nino...weren't initial projects for a weak EL Nino or am I remembering incorrectly? 

As @ORH_wxman stated, the 2015-6 El Niño was well predicted. Even as early as March of 2015, the dynamic models had a mean peak of +1.2 already by summer:

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2015-March-quick-look/

 However, the 3/2015 models were initialized with the already existing weak El Niño. So, unlike now, the models had help from it already being El Niño. They're probably more apt to predict a moderate+ El Niño later in the year when it is already weak El Niño vs if it is only neutral at initialization like the current case. But despite the current neutral initialization the dynamic model mean is up at +1.0 by summer, which though not as strong as the +1.2 summer mean of the March of 2015 dynamic models is still quite notable:

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

Then again, a whopping 15 of 16 dynamic models in March of 2017 were progging El Niño by summer with a similar neutral initialization:

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2017-March-quick-look/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table

 So, don't bet the ranch this early.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wow, had no idea how mundane it was there...ORH had 97.5". I assumed you were at least 80-85".

Must have been some huggers...could have easily ended up like 2002-2003 with 80"+...

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

You are remembering incorrectly...that looked like a strong Nino pretty quickly once we got past the spring barrier.

Yea, that was always looking like a mega event.

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Must have been some huggers...

It was backloaded.  BOS got 44.7 with a big storm in February and a decent March amd even 2.2 in April.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

It was backloaded.  BOS got 44.7 with a big storm in February and a decent March amd even 2.2 in April.

Yea, I know that...just saying, more often than not our seasonal total would be better in that set up. Coastal plane got porked. 

[Chrisrotary12]

5 hours ago, UnitedWx said:

I hope it dies before it gets here! I don't want any more treatment on the roads damn it

I know right. I keep waiting for an absolute soaker so I can wash my truck and then not worry about the salt/sand layer coming back.

[Torch Tiger]

you know it's bad for the cold crew when the talk moved onto next winter. 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It was backloaded.  BOS got 44.7 with a big storm in February and a decent March amd even 2.2 in April.

Kind of like 02-03. Frustrating season until 2/7/03 and then off to the races.

[tamarack]

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It was backloaded.  BOS got 44.7 with a big storm in February and a decent March amd even 2.2 in April.

Mid-Feb storm and equinox paste bomb totaled 40"+ at our NNJ place, where the average is +/-40".  Latter storm was 24" even though it started as light RA.

[radarman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Kind of like 02-03. Frustrating season until 2/7/03 and then off to the races.

XMas '02 was a biggie for many to the west.  Logan in NY killed it especially.  I recall it absolutely pounding snow driving south down 128 sometime that evening.  Total whiteout and a scary scene.  But some point near the going east/going west clusterf*** it flipped and then poured rain once on the SE expressway all the way down rt 3.  Don't recall what areas between 128 and 495 ended up with.  It was paste so probably bad ratios.  But a nice storm either way.  Big HP in place IIRC.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, radarman said:

XMas '02 was a biggie for many to the west.  Logan in NY killed it especially.  I recall it absolutely pounding snow driving south down 128 sometime that evening.  Total whiteout and a scary scene.  But some point near the going east/going west clusterf*** it flipped and then poured rain once on the SE expressway all the way down rt 3.  Don't recall what areas between 128 and 495 ended up with.  It was paste so probably bad ratios.  But a nice storm either way.  Big HP in place IIRC.

That storm and the one right after NY skunked here. Couple inches or so with each one, while N&W of 128 got it good. We did have a decent event earlier in December 2002.

It all changed in Feb though and no complaints with the season. 

[powderfreak]

26 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

you know it's bad for the cold crew when the talk moved onto next winter. 

The best time of year.  What a day.