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March 2023 Obs/Disco


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5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

This sounds fun.

Tonight
Occasional snow showers, mainly before 1am. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Areas of blowing snow between 9pm and 1am. Low around 3. Wind chill values as low as -22. Very windy, with a southwest wind 36 to 43 mph becoming west after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

it'll be rocking at the picnic tables

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Could be a severe threat Saturday WOR. The NAM and GFS have strong low level shear along with some modest surface based instability. The NAM in particular has 0-3km ~125j/kg in western Mass with quite a bit of 0-3km helicity. Worth watching along with a damaging gradient wind threat ahead of the fropa. 

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9 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Could be a severe threat Saturday WOR. The NAM and GFS have strong low level shear along with some modest surface based instability. The NAM in particular has 0-3km ~125j/kg in western Mass with quite a bit of 0-3km helicity. Worth watching along with a damaging gradient wind threat ahead of the fropa. 

We need this 

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9 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Could be a severe threat Saturday WOR. The NAM and GFS have strong low level shear along with some modest surface based instability. The NAM in particular has 0-3km ~125j/kg in western Mass with quite a bit of 0-3km helicity. Worth watching along with a damaging gradient wind threat ahead of the fropa. 

I was debating starting a severe thread. Not a fan of how dry alot of soundings looked though...but there may be enhanced convergence right along the front. Good sign to see models with decent QPF signal. 

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22 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

an evolution like 1957-58 wouldn't really be that farfetched given where all the warmth is under the surface right now. the CanSIPS has a pretty similar evolution with the stronger east-based anomalies migrating westward during autumn

ezgif-2-a0f41ac300.gif.93fc17617d4feb6aa5db61be7bb21ac0.gifcansips_sstaMean_noice_month_global_fh2-11.thumb.gif.c72a53d8cd4c10d883b3788ba820f7eb.gif 

Capture.PNG.bdbc5ba41a3bcbeb603d476b81f3f3d4.PNG

Yea, that, 1986, 2002, and 2009 are some progressions that I could see....strong(er) central-west based type of events,.

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26 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

an evolution like 1957-58 wouldn't really be that farfetched given where all the warmth is under the surface right now. the CanSIPS has a pretty similar evolution with the stronger east-based anomalies migrating westward during autumn

ezgif-2-a0f41ac300.gif.93fc17617d4feb6aa5db61be7bb21ac0.gifcansips_sstaMean_noice_month_global_fh2-11.thumb.gif.c72a53d8cd4c10d883b3788ba820f7eb.gif 

Capture.PNG.bdbc5ba41a3bcbeb603d476b81f3f3d4.PNG

BTW, Canadien was the only guidance that nailed the la nina ending up as a modoki event this year.....I ignored it last fall, as everything else was central or east. But it was mild and the la nina really western biased.

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13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I was debating starting a severe thread. Not a fan of how dry alot of soundings looked though...but there may be enhanced convergence right along the front. Good sign to see models with decent QPF signal. 

What are your thoughts about the probable severe outbreak in the central part of the country Friday Wiz? Reed Timmer seems to be hitting it hard.

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2 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

What are your thoughts about the probable severe outbreak in the central part of the country Friday Wiz? Reed Timmer seems to be hitting it hard.

Seems like a pretty impressive warm sector for in terms of dew points surging northward. Dynamics are through the roof. The warm sector seems messy though with lots of precip which may hinder instability and dampen lapse rates. That is an impressively large enhanced risk, but given some of the questions, I think you'll see some more concentrated pockets of widespread wind damage and not as extensive as the enhanced risk. southern Iowa into northern Missouri and western Illinois may be greatest overall potential. 

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