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March 2023 Obs/Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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30 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

not sure if you can even draw it up better at this range. this is ridiculous

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1677585600-1678276800-1678536000-40-1.thumb.gif.5b339bc8dbba122f2a6b5253290b1fd2.gif

It's a blockbuster that'll get all fumbled around with and fucked up -

right in my sweet window of the 12-13th... sort of an 1888 redux, only bigger than just SE NY/CT but not 50" either....

who's with me!

 

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4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

In Jan no but in March yes. 

Alternatively some of the ops also suggest an omega high like pattern with a bulging ridge in the southern plains and cold coasts. 

You could get some clippers or SWFEs as the lows go around the ridge. Repeats of yesterday 

My climo is perfectly fine through 3/15. I don't live in Jersey.

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8 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Actually found it. Odd look warm in Main cold in North Carolina.

image.png.781f3e288253e7b2541e91a853f18410.png

Phase 8 really loses its cold Jan-->Feb--> March. I don't know why. Maybe someone else here can add.

Tomorrow being March 1st, and phase 8 happening around mid month, a blend of the two graphics is probably best, but any way, point is: December and January phase 8 ain't nearly the same as March. Seeing some AN tendency sneak into VT, and MA Berks.

 

 

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34 minutes ago, Digityman said:

Quick George, make a thread.

Nah, I changed my ways. I like warmer weather now. Sure if we actually get a blizzard I’ll be excited about it, but until there is overwhelming evidence (it’s actually snowing out with all guidance locked in) I’m not going to hype it up. In the long range it makes sense to assume any cold look will trend warmer and less snowy as we close in. Since I’m a warm weenie now, I might start making some torch threads when things are pointing in that direction.

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Storm busted with only 4.0" of snow on 0.39" liquid. I was expecting closer to 8" with around 0.75" liquid, which is an average of the QPF that a lot of the NWP was forecasting up until go time last night. Synoptic forcing was weak pretty much the whole time except for a couple of hours at the storm's onset from around 10 pm to midnight last night. 

Nobody really cares if a storm produces 0.75" rain or 0.39" rain as impact differences are nil compared to 4" of snow vs. 8" of snow, which has a much more tangible effect on people's daily lives. 

Glad those of you in the south of the Pike crew were able to get something decent as you've been shafted pretty much all winter. 

We'll see what Friday night brings. Could be a good storm here, but I worry about too much warmth aloft and sleet, especially if the 12z ECMWF depiction comes to fruition. That said, I feel like the Euro has been more inconsistent than usual of late though with cave ins to the GFS and some rather profound mood swings. It had a whiff to the south, and now it's basically a cutter with a weak secondary development for this event. GFS has been much more consistent with this threat so far.

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The modelling suggests this season will end up as an A as my snow pack will go back up over 20 inches soon for the second time this year and I’ll probably end up with a minimum of eight weeks 6 inch plus snow pack and I will probably exceed my seasonal average of about 70 inches.  Right on the edge, but this is turning into quite a good winter up here. Hopefully all y’all to the south to get in on this real soon starting with today’s storm.

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the main difference between the GEFS and EPS / GEPS is that the GEFS keeps the trough over the WC and doesn't eject it eastward. this is a possibility, but I wouldn't worry about it too much, as the GFS OP is doing that and the GEFS is underdispersive. it's just a strange looking pattern evolution... you would expect it to progress, not just cut off and sit there

however, this is worth noting as a way that positive effects from the blocking pattern can be delayed. this wouldn't ruin the pattern or anything, we would just have to wait longer and not have the same distinct KU potential that the EPS and GEPS present around the 10th. if that S/W ejects, it's immediately off to the races

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Just now, powderfreak said:

68” over you lol.

20D642CE-BAA9-40C4-9FE2-42133CA566F5.thumb.png.c9be903cacdf42f5e154f04dbfd2d65c.png

I’m southwest of that near the ORH county line where middlesex county has that winding border E of ORH. 
 

Ironically that 68” is really close to Ray’s old stomping grounds in Wilmington. 

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3 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

What a snow hole that place and Littleton NH is. Glad we don’t live there. 

Yeah. It’s amazing how often they’ll actually have bare ground while places way south of them have deep pack. They do get damned cold though when they radiate up there in those valleys. 

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10 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

What a snow hole that place and Littleton NH is. Glad we don’t live there. 

They are.  The worst part of it is nearby is a solid meteorology program (Jim Cantore type alumni and some board members) and those weather weenies are forced to study in a place that can be tough for snow at times.  It is a cold climate though, just suffers during the big east wind events.  They've had some good deform bands though in the past decade I feel like.  Going from Central VT through MPV to 1V4 (Saint Johnsbury).  But you know those model progs get the weather students chapped :lol:.

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24 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

What a snow hole that place and Littleton NH is. Glad we don’t live there. 

 

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah. It’s amazing how often they’ll actually have bare ground while places way south of them have deep pack. They do get damned cold though when they radiate up there in those valleys. 

 

11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

They are.  The worst part of it is nearby is a solid meteorology program (Jim Cantore type alumni and some board members) and those weather weenies are forced to study in a place that can be tough for snow at times.  It is a cold climate though, just suffers during the big east wind events.  

Pond hockey country

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