Typhoon Tip Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 30 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: not sure if you can even draw it up better at this range. this is ridiculous It's a blockbuster that'll get all fumbled around with and fucked up - right in my sweet window of the 12-13th... sort of an 1888 redux, only bigger than just SE NY/CT but not 50" either.... who's with me! 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Digityman Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Quick George, make a thread. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 I’ll be in N. Maine that weekend, so lock it in for sure. Leaving Friday the 10th, be back Tuesday the 14th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2023 Author Share Posted February 28, 2023 4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: In Jan no but in March yes. Alternatively some of the ops also suggest an omega high like pattern with a bulging ridge in the southern plains and cold coasts. You could get some clippers or SWFEs as the lows go around the ridge. Repeats of yesterday My climo is perfectly fine through 3/15. I don't live in Jersey. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 8 hours ago, EastonSN+ said: Actually found it. Odd look warm in Main cold in North Carolina. Phase 8 really loses its cold Jan-->Feb--> March. I don't know why. Maybe someone else here can add. Tomorrow being March 1st, and phase 8 happening around mid month, a blend of the two graphics is probably best, but any way, point is: December and January phase 8 ain't nearly the same as March. Seeing some AN tendency sneak into VT, and MA Berks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 34 minutes ago, Digityman said: Quick George, make a thread. Nah, I changed my ways. I like warmer weather now. Sure if we actually get a blizzard I’ll be excited about it, but until there is overwhelming evidence (it’s actually snowing out with all guidance locked in) I’m not going to hype it up. In the long range it makes sense to assume any cold look will trend warmer and less snowy as we close in. Since I’m a warm weenie now, I might start making some torch threads when things are pointing in that direction. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Storm busted with only 4.0" of snow on 0.39" liquid. I was expecting closer to 8" with around 0.75" liquid, which is an average of the QPF that a lot of the NWP was forecasting up until go time last night. Synoptic forcing was weak pretty much the whole time except for a couple of hours at the storm's onset from around 10 pm to midnight last night. Nobody really cares if a storm produces 0.75" rain or 0.39" rain as impact differences are nil compared to 4" of snow vs. 8" of snow, which has a much more tangible effect on people's daily lives. Glad those of you in the south of the Pike crew were able to get something decent as you've been shafted pretty much all winter. We'll see what Friday night brings. Could be a good storm here, but I worry about too much warmth aloft and sleet, especially if the 12z ECMWF depiction comes to fruition. That said, I feel like the Euro has been more inconsistent than usual of late though with cave ins to the GFS and some rather profound mood swings. It had a whiff to the south, and now it's basically a cutter with a weak secondary development for this event. GFS has been much more consistent with this threat so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2023 Author Share Posted February 28, 2023 2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: generally, yes, but this depends on where the 50/50 sets up. NNE/CNE is by no means out of the game I would go ballistic if a HECS whiffed me this month. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would go ballistic if a HECS whiffed me this month. That’s a distinct possibility in this Rat…just get prepared lol. If there’s ever a winter to do that..this is it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 The modelling suggests this season will end up as an A as my snow pack will go back up over 20 inches soon for the second time this year and I’ll probably end up with a minimum of eight weeks 6 inch plus snow pack and I will probably exceed my seasonal average of about 70 inches. Right on the edge, but this is turning into quite a good winter up here. Hopefully all y’all to the south to get in on this real soon starting with today’s storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Morch 12? Buellar? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 let's goooo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Lol 60 over Ray. Includes sleet should cut it in half NH south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 the main difference between the GEFS and EPS / GEPS is that the GEFS keeps the trough over the WC and doesn't eject it eastward. this is a possibility, but I wouldn't worry about it too much, as the GFS OP is doing that and the GEFS is underdispersive. it's just a strange looking pattern evolution... you would expect it to progress, not just cut off and sit there however, this is worth noting as a way that positive effects from the blocking pattern can be delayed. this wouldn't ruin the pattern or anything, we would just have to wait longer and not have the same distinct KU potential that the EPS and GEPS present around the 10th. if that S/W ejects, it's immediately off to the races 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 7 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Can always adjust upward when we get closer. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Can always adjust upward when we get closer. Why not lfg lol. Might be a new record weenie map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 That 3/14-3/16 fantasy HECS on the gfs would make Mrs Spinazola pregnant again. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Is that Rays big dog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Can always adjust upward when we get closer. 68” over you lol. The Met weenies at Lyndon State are losing their minds I’m sure ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Just now, powderfreak said: 68” over you lol. I’m southwest of that near the ORH county line where middlesex county has that winding border E of ORH. Ironically that 68” is really close to Ray’s old stomping grounds in Wilmington. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 St Johnsbury weenies jumping into the CT river that run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That 3/14-3/16 fantasy HECS on the gfs would make Mrs Spinazola pregnant again. Keep it there…I’d be back home at that point. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: 68” over you lol. The Met weenies at Lyndon State are losing their minds I’m sure ha. "we're due" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: St Johnsbury weenies jumping into the CT river that run. What a snow hole that place and Littleton NH is. Glad we don’t live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: Why not lfg lol. Might be a new record weenie map There was a run of the NAM before Feb '13 that spit out some 70" amounts, but this is up there. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 3 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: What a snow hole that place and Littleton NH is. Glad we don’t live there. Yeah. It’s amazing how often they’ll actually have bare ground while places way south of them have deep pack. They do get damned cold though when they radiate up there in those valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 10 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: What a snow hole that place and Littleton NH is. Glad we don’t live there. They are. The worst part of it is nearby is a solid meteorology program (Jim Cantore type alumni and some board members) and those weather weenies are forced to study in a place that can be tough for snow at times. It is a cold climate though, just suffers during the big east wind events. They've had some good deform bands though in the past decade I feel like. Going from Central VT through MPV to 1V4 (Saint Johnsbury). But you know those model progs get the weather students chapped . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 9 minutes ago, Hoth said: There was a run of the NAM before Feb '13 that spit out some 70" amounts, but this is up there. Lol. Yea and that was 1 storm this is 15 days, 13 map was impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted March 1, 2023 Share Posted March 1, 2023 24 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said: What a snow hole that place and Littleton NH is. Glad we don’t live there. 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah. It’s amazing how often they’ll actually have bare ground while places way south of them have deep pack. They do get damned cold though when they radiate up there in those valleys. 11 minutes ago, powderfreak said: They are. The worst part of it is nearby is a solid meteorology program (Jim Cantore type alumni and some board members) and those weather weenies are forced to study in a place that can be tough for snow at times. It is a cold climate though, just suffers during the big east wind events. Pond hockey country 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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