March 2023 Obs/Disco

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, 512high said:

Home Davis hit 57/ clouds creeping in, last traces of snow in the shade will be gone in hours or over night. I can't believe April begins on Saturday, for me winter kinda dragged and sucked, I will say , looking forward to saving on heat, and electric bills.

58.3 here.

[Lava Rock]

Lt sn. 32f

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

[klw]

I bought a new snow shovel yesterday.  I hope this doesn't mean winter is cancelled.  Sorry if I jinxed it for folks.

[512high]

36/very light drizzle

[UnitedWx]

Morning obs in Simsbury, It's very MOIST and 37 degrees

[Cold Miser]

38F and drizzle.

[Damage In Tolland]

 

[Typhoon Tip]

There's dreary ... then somewhere beneath that distinction is the realm of March 28th, 2023

[Typhoon Tip]

It's interesting to see all three major operational models oscillating between shit, cold, shit, cold, shit right through D10 like that.  

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There's dreary ... then somewhere beneath that distinction is the realm of March 28th, 2023

Looking at obs it’s kinda interesting it didn’t snow but that’s how this winter goes.

Looks like it was steady 0.33-0.50” in 6-hrs in the buckets between ORH-BOS, almost some banded precip from west to east with 925mb temps of 0C dipping to -1C during the diurnal cool nighttime.  And yet the snow level stayed pretty high at like 1500-2000ft.

Like you were mentioning yesterday, the FOUS and other soundings had this like “well, sometimes that snows” vibe.  But never really got close.

[512high]

This is my first time posting a picture lol from my iPhone. Hopefully it goes through can’t believe one year ago today at 5:30 in the morning when I took the dogs out we had a little snow.
 

shop Davis still hovering 36° very raw still a light mist

[weatherwiz]

That is going to be some convective line that moves through tomorrow night. Higher terrain could easily pick up a quick inch or two of snow and could be a graupel fest for many. Probably going to see a decent amount of thunder/lightning too. 

 

EDIT: should add this is ore favorable for western sections and northwest specifically

[wxeyeNH]

It did flip the light snow up here late last night. About 3/4 of an inch. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Looking at obs it’s kinda interesting it didn’t snow but that’s how this winter goes.

Looks like it was steady 0.33-0.50” in 6-hrs in the buckets between ORH-BOS, almost some banded precip from west to east with 925mb temps of 0C dipping to -1C during the diurnal cool nighttime.  And yet the snow level stayed pretty high at like 1500-2000ft.

Like you were mentioning yesterday, the FOUS and other soundings had this like “well, sometimes that snows” vibe.  But never really got close.

There was some minor "hope" - if we want to call it that ..  - in the NAM runs 42 .. 36 hours leading. I saw one run that was 0C isothermal N-W of Boston, with nearly .75" liq eq. But the short game started sneaking temperature back into the column. I saw that and rolled eyes, 'whatever.'  I mean in late March? - we can't be adding therms. These late season blue deals need to default neggie, not posi

It actually hearkens back ( for me) to that idea that the "flop direction" used to be more dependably cold side when in leading marginal set ups. I remember seeing just about any +1 or +2 cold side QPF envelope in 1995 - 2005 seemed to always wind up blue glories. Now, they are always ending up +2 to +3 instead...  Or worse yet, -2C end up +.5 ughers.   That could be modeling changes, or NJ climate invasion .. who knows.

This late in the year ... mid spring month begins in 3 days...  it is also harder to separate lacking seasonal cold issue,  from the fact that it was 48 to 62 in sun-soaked earth yesterday, immediately before hand. About as close to 10 on the nape scale as is theoretically possible right around 1:30pm yesterday, when it was 62 and dead calm air under close to 100% cerulean blue sky. Then clouds slabbed in abruptly at five, if anything ...insulating all that rad. It started raining here around 7 ish last evening, and it was still 51 F when that commenced ...  Without a dynamic hammer that woulda been hard to do in 1995 for that matter. 

If the 00z GFS is right ...NNE should get some back side/"upslop" chances over the next two days.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There was some minor "hope" - if we want to call it that ..  - in the NAM runs 42 .. 36 hours leading. I saw one run that was 0C isothermal N-W of Boston, with nearly .75" liq eq. But the short game started sneaking temperature back into the column. I saw that and rolled eyes, 'whatever.'  I mean in late March? - we can't be adding therms. These late season blue deals need to default neggie, not posi

It actually hearkens back ( for me) to that idea that the "flop direction" used to be more dependably cold side when in leading marginal set ups. I remember seeing just about any +1 or +2 cold side QPF envelope in 1995 - 2005 seemed to always wind up blue glories. Now, they are always ending up +2 to +3 instead...  Or worse yet, -2C end up +.5 ughers.   That could be modeling changes, or NJ climate invasion .. who knows.

This late in the year ... mid spring month begins in 3 days...  it is also harder to separate lacking seasonal cold issue,  from the fact that it was 48 to 62 in sun-soaked earth yesterday, immediately before hand. About as close to 10 on the nape scale as is theoretically possible right around 1:30pm yesterday, when it was 62 and dead calm air under close to 100% cerulean blue sky. Then clouds slabbed in abruptly at five, if anything ...insulating all that rad. It started raining here around 7 ish last evening, and it was still 51 F when that commenced ...  Without a dynamic hammer that woulda been hard to do in 1995 for that matter. 

If the 00z GFS is right ...NNE should get some back side/"upslop" chances over the next two days.

I think some of those proclivities are unique to specific seasons, too.....its a little bit of both.

[Typhoon Tip]

Random thought during this cold goo of a morning ...

I remember in 1998 ... like it was yesterday as the cliche goes.   So vividly, though that juxtaposing the 29th -31st of March that year, to what is out there right now is stunning.

I thought that extraordinary stretch of temperatures around the Merrimack Valley up in NE Mass was perhaps a once in a lifetime experience relative to the calendar.  AfternoonS above 85 ... one of which poked a hole into the 90s at 91!   On March 30

We've gone on to at last "arguably" similar on several occasions since 2008 ... Regardless of ENSO this, solar cyclic that, or propensity to explain it as just noise ( ) ... the recurrence of dramatic early warmth in Feb-Apr makes on wonder if that may just be a climate threshold crossing and is now part of life now.    

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Random thought during this cold goo of a morning ...

I remember in 1998 ... like it was yesterday as the cliche goes.   So vividly, though that juxtaposing the 29th -31st of March that year, to what is out there right now is stunning.

I thought that extraordinary stretch of temperatures around the Merrimack Valley up in NE Mass was perhaps a once in a lifetime experience relative to the calendar.  AfternoonS above 85 ... one of which poked a hole into the 90s at 91!   On March 30

We've gone on to at last "arguably" similar on several occasions since 2008 ... Regardless of ENSO this, solar cyclic that, or propensity to explain it as just noise ( ) ... the recurrence of dramatic early warmth in Feb-Apr makes on wonder if that may just be a climate threshold crossing and is now part of life now.    

 

Man, I remember that....I was a junior at Wilmington High and I majored in swamp ass that week-

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think some of those proclivities are unique to specific seasons, too.....its a little bit of both.

Model guidance used to have a much bigger warm bias in the boundary layer too on storm systems. They’ve improved quite a bit to where that bias is almost gone. There are still some CAD scenarios where you take the under but on a generic wetbulb situation, they are not really biased warm these days. 

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think some of those proclivities are unique to specific seasons, too.....its a little bit of both.

Oh yeah... shit yeah. It's deltas in different rates of change across multiple factors.  He, more like "..a little of ambrosia"

Delta climate

Delta seasonality

Delta pattern

Delta model performance

...probably, some smaller amount of Delta fractals and being open minded to randomness, too.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh yeah... shit yeah. It's deltas in different rates of change across multiple factors.  He, more like "..a little of ambrosia"

Delta climate

Delta seasonality

Delta pattern

...probably, some smaller amount of Delta fractals and being open minded to randomness, too.

 

Definitely not trying to debate your overall point, though...the warm extremes are becoming more common, overall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Model guidance used to have a much bigger warm bias in the boundary layer too on storm systems. They’ve improved quite a bit to where that bias is almost gone. There are still some CAD scenarios where you take the under but on a generic wetbulb situation, they are not really biased warm these days. 

Great point.

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, I remember that....I was a junior at Wilmington High and I majored in swamp ass that week-

Right, they probably didn't have more modernized hvac tech outfitting shoe-string budget municipalities like public school buildings (because we have our civility priorities straight) yet. They had to manually flip out the 'winter system' for the warm season. 

Ha ha. That might be just fiction, but I've seen that happen before in person, where the heat is still on during unusual warm spells when I was in school up at UML.  Not sure that happens so much in this era... things are increasing mini split and controlled by automation.  You hapless working class population brats sitting there sweating in 92 F with the windows open -   ...not hard to imagine.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Definitely not trying to debate your overall point, though...the warm extremes are becoming more common, overall.

Well... As usual, I was making two points at the same time and probably just being more confusing because of that.   I was originally just commenting to PF the idea that our marginal set ups tend to end up more +1.5 as opposed to -1       ... that does seemed to be reproducible.

The "warm burst" was a digression - but yup.  The recurrence of those - I'll just say personally I don't think that is just noise at this point. 

Speak of the devil...  we'll see, but there's some suggestion that Apr 6 the 10th may bring the goods but conflicting signals there.  Not a lot of confidence.

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Model guidance used to have a much bigger warm bias in the boundary layer too on storm systems. They’ve improved quite a bit to where that bias is almost gone. There are still some CAD scenarios where you take the under but on a generic wetbulb situation, they are not really biased warm these days. 

Even back in the day with E-NE winds. If you had some cold aloft, you could subtract so that the 36F temps were closer to freezing in reality due to wetbulbing, latent heat of melting etc. This is why when I saw like 33-34 on the models all winter during storms, I knew we were porked. Those days are gone. 

[Typhoon Tip]

But the 'marginal set ups' are ending up warmer, too -

Seems the models may be too cold then, perhaps.  

We know the GFS is anyway. 

[SouthCoastMA]

I will save my time and energy in the future to only focus on storms that have a resevoir of artic air to tap into, or at least a solid polar cold source around. Otherwise, I'll continue to question why I just spent 50 hours tracking a 1.2" snowfall on .75" of liquid equivalent

[Cold Miser]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

Link didn't work.

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Model guidance used to have a much bigger warm bias in the boundary layer too on storm systems. They’ve improved quite a bit to where that bias is almost gone. There are still some CAD scenarios where you take the under but on a generic wetbulb situation, they are not really biased warm these days. 

Annual snowfall period is October 1 - September 30, right? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Annual snowfall period is October 1 - September 30, right? 

Yea, I think its referred to as the water year, or whatever...that period in the climo base is how you get a true seasonal snowfall snowfall, as opposed to yearly.

[CoastalWx]

39 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I will save my time and energy in the future to only focus on storms that have a resevoir of artic air to tap into, or at least a solid polar cold source around. Otherwise, I'll continue to question why I just spent 50 hours tracking a 1.2" snowfall on .75" of liquid equivalent

Did you get snow?