ORH_wxman Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Heisy said: 12z Canadian blows this event up again . Funny, I saw the 84h RGEM and was thinking "GGEM is prob gonna be interesting"....and sure enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 24, 2023 Author Share Posted March 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: 12z Canadian blows this event up again . God, I have always hated those maps....its like hyrogliphics. 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: God, I have always hated those maps....its like hyrogliphics. Theyve been the same since I first found them in the late 1990s too. I'm amazed they still even exist in that hideous capacity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah if we're talking butterfly effects....then you can attribute CC to everything, since we're in a world with that influence. There no world without at the moment. But the true value of attribution studies is the "net effect". One reason I like to stick to the truly empirical studies is you can actually measure some of this stuff more confidently rather than trying to fix too much of it into a model which will always have some levels of assumptions. You still need models even on empirical attribution studies, but you try and use as much real data as possible. Temperature is probably the bets example....we have a TON of temperature data so we're pretty confident on a lot of the temperature changes. But other things with lower sample sizes shorter periods of record can get really dicey very quick. There's a model for everything....in the 1997-2002 period, we saw a lot of studies that said CC was helping make the NAO more positive having come off a recent 2 decade binge of positive NAO winters. Of course, fast forward 10-15 years to the early/mid 2010s after that binge of excessive -NAO/AO winters between 2009-2013 and so many of the NAO/CC studies started claiming the opposite....that reduced sea ice and arctic amplification was actually causing the NAO/AO to become more negative. We don't hear about those studies much anymore after the binge of +NAO winters again post-2013 (and prior to this season). We saw similar papers come out that you mentioned about the "pacific warm blob" causing the big +PNA ridges out west in the 2013-2015 years.....now in the past few seasons we can't stop talking about troughs slamming into Cabo San Lucas. I'm sure CC is involved in all of these things, but the net effect isn't confident so when I read claims like "CC making negative NAO winters more/less likely", I tend to mostly roll my eyes since so many of those things are based on shorter samples and lots of models with assumptions in there. Sometimes, the headlines don't really match the paper either...you'll read that headline and then the paper has this really weak correlation where they state a lot of uncertainty and I'm thinking "how did that headline get written based on that paper?". They already have CC into the mix for the LA tornado the other day. https://www.vox.com/science/2023/3/23/23653712/los-angeles-tornado-montebello-california 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 denier board 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 Just now, forkyfork said: denier board Yeah, pointing out inconsistencies in attribution studies is being a denier. So which one is it....CC causing -NAO or +NAO....you got the answer, right? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 the public is too stupid for that shit. just attribute everything to cc so they get scared enough to want to reduce emissions 3 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 Funny, I saw the 84h RGEM and was thinking "GGEM is prob gonna be interesting"....and sure enough.Yea actually noticed the same thing ha. Idk could be a blip? Do models struggle more during this time of year? I just use these maps because they always come out before the rest lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 8 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the public is too stupid for that shit. just attribute everything to cc so they get scared enough to want to reduce emissions They sure are , especially if they are upper middle class and above , Even when the alternatives increase prices for energy and food costs worldwide , and that the majority of poor countries who drive emissions will always care more about feeding their children then the pressure to appear “PC “ and have the privilege to have emissions as a bigger concern than necessities 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Heisy said: Yea actually noticed the same thing ha. Idk could be a blip? Do models struggle more during this time of year? I just use these maps because they always come out before the rest lol . Model skill does start to decrease as the PJ weakens and lifts north. March is a little early for that though....maybe late March there's a slight degradation, but I wouldn't expect model guidance to be noticeably worse than a month ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 24, 2023 Author Share Posted March 24, 2023 18 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the public is too stupid for that shit. just attribute everything to cc so they get scared enough to want to reduce emissions That actually makes sense from a practical standpoint...the over attribution just drives me nuts as a weather hobbyist. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 Can we take the CC talk to banter for the 5th time…geez. Who gives a flying F. It’ll be snowing long after you’re all dead…Bank on it. 2 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 GEFS bringing Tuesday back. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GEFS bringing Tuesday back. We getting the band back together 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Can we take the CC talk to banter for the 5th time…geez. Who gives a flying F. It’ll be snowing long after you’re all dead…Bank on it. It’s not snowing after I’m dead unless all of you are nice to me. 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 1 minute ago, weathafella said: It’s not snowing after I’m dead unless all of you are nice to me. Can you at least cook up a region wide 2011 KU before you croak Old Man Winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 11 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Can we take the CC talk to banter for the 5th time…geez. Who gives a flying F. It’ll be snowing long after you’re all dead…Bank on it. in antarctica 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Can you at least cook up a region wide 2011 KU before you croak Old Man Winter Done. Since I have no idea how long I have I’ll make it next season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, forkyfork said: in antarctica Is there not enough drama over in OT for you today? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 Ukie isn't as interested in making the second shortwave the main player...tries to do the front runner wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 8 minutes ago, Cold Miser said: Is there not enough drama over in OT for you today? It's an echo chamber in there now. Everyone got banned or they left for the Sesh. I got called a beta for saying I like snow. Anyway, way OT. Turned into a nice day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: GEFS bringing Tuesday back. I'm surprised the mean that is robust....OP was pretty much nothing (had the front runner wave, but didn't amplify the one behind it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 So is the front runner Monday? Or is Monday something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: So is the front runner Monday? Or is Monday something else? Monday night really…some models have it going well into Tuesday…I don’t think that one is all that interesting from a snow standpoint. Maybe a few sloppy inches for the hills but prob white rain or plain rain for many unless we see the intensity ramp up a bit more. The one behind it seems to have a little better look from a ageo flow standpoint if we can bring it back. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 I'm still noticing some weird graphical glitches on the Pivotal GFS snow maps (not that I am counting on them). The resolution seems way rougher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 Ukie isn't as interested in making the second shortwave the main player...tries to do the front runner wave.12z euro, Can see differences with shortwave strength out west, looks stronger thru day 3 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 Early changes vs 6z….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Whineminster said: It's an echo chamber in there now. Everyone got banned or they left for the Sesh. I got called a beta for saying I like snow. Anyway, way OT. Turned into a nice day. Is that nice woman still there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 24, 2023 Author Share Posted March 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, Heisy said: Early changes vs 6z…. . We want the weak ass SOP special on Monday to go bye bye if you want the big storm follow up....but I'd just assume miss it than watch hubdave post more pics of his roof caved in again 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 24, 2023 Share Posted March 24, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: We want the weak ass SOP special on Monday to go bye bye if you want the big storm follow up....but I'd just assume miss it than watch hubdave post more pics of his roof caved in again I want Dave to pull another near 30. That should mute mehing for a bit…right Dave? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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