March 2023 Obs/Disco

[bristolri_wx]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't know ...it seems they all spent time on and off with that thing next week. 

The Euro may suck donkey ballz now but this isn't the test case to point that out.  They're all pieces of shit at this time of year anyway...

We are in a longitudinal pattern and no model typically does well in that regime, ...now adding that to spring vagaries on top ...?

There's no 'looking forward' to the next run of any guidance if one is being rational about limitations ...

Big warm up in April possible, btw

I think the fast flow pattern that we have had setup the last few winters at our latitude really messes with the models for our area when it comes to cyclogenesis. It’s not like any one model sticks out as being better than the other last few seasons they have all had their hits and misses, but what’s been lacking is accurate modeling of mid-level and surface low tracks, and the ability to provide more fine tuned snowfall in the short range; and when I say accurate, we are talking about the usual threading the needle required to figure out where snow will fall in our varied geography in New England.

Hopefully the pattern is different next winter and we have both a better outcome winter with forecasts and the actual weather that accompanies them.

[weathafella]

George, no way BOS averages 49 from 1890-now.  I can buy that 1991-2020 but not 130 years.

[WinterWolf]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’m almost positive this is wrong. Models have gotten so much better than where we were 15 years ago. We remember the euro’s coups well because there were many, but it had plenty of times where it waffled a bit. I think it had the 12/19/08 storm as a Detroit cutter 5 days out until it quickly turned it into a snowy SWFE. I also recall it having some pretty huge solutions for interior SNE in December 2012 pre-Xmas about 4 days out that failed pretty horribly. We of course remember the Feb 2013 coup. 
 

The GFS imho is vastly improved so the relative difference between them has shrunk even though the euro has gotten better too. We were just so used to ignoring all the other models during large threats back then. Now we have to actually look at other guidance and consider it. 

Will, I’m not talking about 15 yrs ago. Sure 15 yrs ago they were all worse. I’m talking about when it was the bomb 8-10 yrs ago. As soon as they updated it after that, it got worse! I don’t care what anybody says..it’s not what it was then..at least when it comes to the evolution of storms around the east coast.  
 

Sure the GFS has gotten better for certain, and folks can think what they want, but it’s(Euro)not the same “steady” gem it once was.  Was it perfect? Of course not. And thats not what I mean. I think you know what I mean. It’s not the same solid model it once was 8+ years ago.  It jumps all over now. It makes huge jumps now in close..And as Luke put it…it’s “just another model” now.  
 

And yes, we have to take all models much more equally now, due to the fact as you pointed out,  the others have improved, and imo the Euro has not improved to the degree the others have, but has become more erratic and unsure it seems lots of times. Not saying it’s not a good model(still Varsity for sure), just seems it’s lost a step or two, and the others have gained a step or two. 

[dryslot]

4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Not for nothing but EPS has multiple members still in the game. If I forecasted I would definitely not write it off. Emotionally sure after this year but it's science not emotions 

No clusters there, Plenty of spread still, Not off the table.

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, amarshall said:

Lots of deer.  Any bucks show up on camera in the fall? 

I've had a few show up in my scope.......

[KoalaBeer]

4 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s gotten worse, and the others have improved too. It’s erratic now, and jumpy. Not as good as it was. 

Everyone shitting on the Euro but I’ve yet to see any data to back up it’s so called donkey ballz performance. Not saying that I have it…I’ve looked but model verification is hard to come by. Seems like there might be a little selective memory/recency bias when evaluating the models. Humans are inherently bad at correctly noting stuff like this IMO and it’s tough to trust what people ‘feel’ like they are seeing with the models without data to confirm it. 
 

To stay on topic somewhat more, glad we have a little something to track over the next week and tomorrow’s severe wx could be pretty nasty in the southeast. New MD graphics from SPC are clean. 
 

 

[WinterWolf]

17 minutes ago, dryslot said:

No clusters there, Plenty of spread still, Not off the table.

N. Maine looking great tonight…a good snow storm for them today and tonight. More to come Sunday. And still grooming!  

[George001]

28 minutes ago, weathafella said:

George, no way BOS averages 49 from 1890-now.  I can buy that 1991-2020 but not 130 years.

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/boston/news/boston-weather-records-show-warm-wet-years-heading-into-winter-usually-followed-by-below-average-snowfall/
 

this is where I got the 49.2 from, though this article was from 2021 so it’s missing the past 2 winters. 

[dryslot]

13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

N. Maine looking great tonight…a good snow storm for them today and tonight. More to come Sunday. And still grooming!  

Mint

[weathafella]

22 minutes ago, George001 said:

https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/boston/news/boston-weather-records-show-warm-wet-years-heading-into-winter-usually-followed-by-below-average-snowfall/
 

this is where I got the 49.2 from, though this article was from 2021 so it’s missing the past 2 winters. 

That's actually the new 30 year normal 1991-2020.  

The mean from 1890 through last winter is 43.3

 

 

Monthly Total Snowfall for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Season
Mean	T	T	0.0	0.0	1.1	7.6	12.4	13.0	7.4	1.3	0.0	T	43.3
Max	T 2004	T 2020	0.0 2022	4.3 2020	17.8 1898	27.9 1970	43.3 2005	64.8 2015	38.9 1993	22.4 1997	0.9 1938	T 2019	110.6 2015
Min	0.0 2022	0.0 2022	0.0 2022	0.0 2022	0.0 2015	0.0 1999	0.3 1913	0.0 1927	T 2020	0.0 2012	0.0 2022	0.0 2022	9.0 1937
1889-1890	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M	M
1890-1891	M	M	M	M	M	M	14.8	11.8	16.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	M
1891-1892	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	0.0	T	12.5	14.0	20.3	0.0	0.0	0.0	46.8
1892-1893	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.2	2.5	14.6	35.3	4.5	7.9	0.0	0.0	66.0
1893-1894	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.4	18.5	15.0	21.6	T	8.5	0.0	0.0	64.0
1894-1895	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	6.4	13.5	13.9	8.8	3.8	0.5	0.0	0.0	46.9
1895-1896	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	5.2	9.5	9.5	14.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	38.7
1896-1897	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.2	8.6	18.2	10.9	3.3	T	0.0	0.0	43.2
1897-1898	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	8.1	7.8	16.3	11.5	6.0	2.2	0.0	0.0	51.9
1898-1899	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	17.8	7.5	6.1	30.2	9.3	T	0.0	0.0	70.9
1899-1900	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	0.1	T	8.3	9.0	7.6	0.0	T	0.0	25.0
1900-1901	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.8	7.8	8.8	T	0.0	0.0	0.0	17.5
1901-1902	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	12.6	11.0	13.0	7.5	T	0.0	0.0	44.1
1902-1903	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	T	22.8	4.2	14.7	0.3	T	0.0	0.0	42.0
1903-1904	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	10.6	35.7	16.5	8.9	1.2	0.0	0.0	72.9
1904-1905	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	T	12.0	21.3	8.0	3.6	T	0.0	0.0	44.9
1905-1906	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	3.5	6.1	6.1	21.9	T	0.0	0.0	37.6
1906-1907	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.1	15.5	16.1	25.5	6.6	3.1	T	0.0	67.9
1907-1908	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	7.0	4.3	9.3	4.8	0.8	0.0	0.0	26.2
1908-1909	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	3.5	11.2	2.3	3.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	20.1
1909-1910	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	T	12.3	11.9	12.6	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	37.0
1910-1911	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.4	8.2	0.7	19.5	3.1	7.7	0.0	0.0	40.6
1911-1912	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	3.7	17.8	0.2	9.1	0.5	0.0	0.0	31.6
1912-1913	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	9.2	0.3	7.7	0.5	1.4	0.0	0.0	19.4
1913-1914	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	T	0.9	10.3	20.6	5.2	2.0	0.0	0.0	39.0
1914-1915	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	T	4.1	7.0	5.1	T	6.1	0.0	0.0	22.3
1915-1916	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	6.7	4.8	30.3	33.0	4.2	0.0	0.0	79.2
1916-1917	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.7	9.5	13.1	8.9	12.9	9.1	T	0.0	54.2
1917-1918	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	2.2	7.0	13.8	5.7	12.8	4.2	0.0	0.0	45.7
1918-1919	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	8.4	4.1	6.2	2.4	T	0.0	0.0	21.1
1919-1920	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.2	2.9	24.8	32.5	11.0	2.0	T	0.0	73.4
1920-1921	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.8	5.5	3.6	23.2	T	T	0.0	0.0	34.1
1921-1922	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.6	4.4	2.7	15.5	5.9	3.3	0.0	0.0	33.4
1922-1923	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.9	14.7	25.3	14.4	10.6	T	0.0	0.0	65.9
1923-1924	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	3.0	8.5	7.9	7.4	3.0	0.0	0.0	29.8
1924-1925	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.5	0.2	20.7	T	T	T	0.0	0.0	21.4
1925-1926	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	T	0.5	7.4	27.3	2.8	T	0.0	0.0	38.0
1926-1927	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	24.2	16.1	0.0	0.6	0.2	0.0	0.0	41.1
1927-1928	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.5	T	5.1	8.7	6.5	T	0.0	0.0	20.8
1928-1929	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	1.4	4.6	13.0	19.6	3.6	T	0.0	0.0	M
1929-1930	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.2	10.6	7.5	10.2	0.6	T	0.0	0.0	32.1
1930-1931	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	0.1	7.7	11.7	14.0	7.3	T	0.0	0.0	40.8
1931-1932	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	1.4	1.2	M	5.8	T	0.0	0.0	M
1932-1933	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	8.6	1.3	20.6	5.1	5.0	0.0	0.0	40.6
1933-1934	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.9	15.6	0.8	32.9	10.5	T	0.0	0.0	62.7
1934-1935	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	T	1.6	M	12.7	2.1	1.9	0.0	0.0	M
1935-1936	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	0.3	13.2	12.6	3.3	T	0.0	0.0	30.4
1936-1937	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.4	0.7	2.0	T	1.9	T	0.0	0.0	9.0
1937-1938	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.3	4.6	31.0	10.0	0.4	0.9	0.9	0.0	48.1
1938-1939	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	5.0	1.9	7.5	4.7	18.3	0.2	0.0	0.0	M
1939-1940	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	6.5	4.6	23.8	0.3	1.5	0.0	0.0	37.7
1940-1941	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	8.5	4.5	20.4	1.9	12.5	0.0	T	0.0	47.8
1941-1942	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	T	0.2	8.2	6.2	7.8	1.5	0.0	0.0	23.9
1942-1943	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	6.8	26.4	4.5	8.0	T	0.0	0.0	45.7
1943-1944	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	0.3	5.1	9.6	12.7	T	0.0	0.0	27.7
1944-1945	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.2	6.9	24.3	26.3	0.5	0.0	T	0.0	59.2
1945-1946	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.9	24.6	9.8	9.8	0.2	1.5	0.0	0.0	50.8
1946-1947	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	4.9	4.0	9.0	0.9	0.6	0.0	0.0	19.4
1947-1948	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.1	26.8	32.5	17.0	11.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	89.2
1948-1949	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.1	5.5	13.7	6.9	9.9	0.0	T	0.0	37.1
1949-1950	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.4	2.4	7.9	15.2	5.1	T	0.0	0.0	32.0
1950-1951	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	2.7	13.9	9.2	3.9	T	0.0	0.0	29.7
1951-1952	0.0	T	0.0	0.0	T	8.4	10.7	11.4	1.4	0.0	0.0	T	31.9
1952-1953	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	T	2.4	13.6	11.4	0.2	2.2	T	0.0	29.8
1953-1954	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	T	19.2	1.9	0.4	2.1	0.0	0.0	23.6
1954-1955	T	T	0.0	0.0	T	10.3	0.9	6.5	7.0	0.4	0.0	0.0	25.1
1955-1956	T	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.5	1.8	7.7	14.5	31.2	3.2	0.0	0.0	60.9
1956-1957	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.6	15.4	20.6	2.8	11.5	1.1	0.0	0.0	52.0
1957-1958	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	0.1	T	6.6	23.9	12.0	2.1	T	0.0	44.7
1958-1959	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	4.6	4.1	10.7	14.6	T	0.0	0.0	34.1
1959-1960	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.6	5.5	10.2	2.3	22.3	T	0.0	0.0	40.9
1960-1961	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	T	16.9	18.7	14.9	9.0	2.0	0.0	0.0	61.5
1961-1962	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	0.9	11.4	2.5	28.7	1.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	44.7
1962-1963	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	0.9	5.3	6.5	4.6	13.6	T	0.0	0.0	30.9
1963-1964	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	0.0	17.7	14.4	23.2	7.7	T	0.0	0.0	63.0
1964-1965	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	T	12.2	22.2	4.7	9.7	1.6	0.0	0.0	50.4
1965-1966	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	2.3	26.4	12.1	3.3	T	T	0.0	44.1
1966-1967	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9.9	0.5	23.5	22.9	3.3	T	0.0	60.1
1967-1968	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.2	14.7	17.7	3.4	6.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	44.8
1968-1969	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.4	5.1	0.9	41.3	6.1	T	0.0	0.0	53.8
1969-1970	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	T	12.6	7.4	10.5	18.2	0.1	0.0	0.0	48.8
1970-1971	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	T	27.9	12.0	8.1	7.4	1.9	0.0	0.0	57.3
1971-1972	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.8	7.9	7.8	16.5	12.1	0.4	0.0	0.0	47.5
1972-1973	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	0.6	3.3	3.6	2.5	0.3	T	0.0	0.0	10.3
1973-1974	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	16.0	17.8	0.1	3.0	0.0	0.0	36.9
1974-1975	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.0	3.6	2.2	17.0	1.8	1.0	0.0	0.0	27.6
1975-1976	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	0.1	19.3	15.0	1.4	10.8	T	0.0	0.0	46.6
1976-1977	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	17.2	23.2	5.9	10.7	T	0.5	0.0	58.5
1977-1978	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.7	5.2	35.9	27.2	16.1	T	0.0	0.0	85.1
1978-1979	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.2	5.8	10.5	6.6	T	0.4	0.0	0.0	27.5
1979-1980	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	2.0	0.4	6.5	3.6	T	0.0	0.0	12.5
1980-1981	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.4	5.6	11.9	1.9	0.5	0.0	0.0	0.0	22.3
1981-1982	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	17.6	18.0	7.6	5.3	13.3	0.0	0.0	61.8
1982-1983	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	5.5	4.7	22.3	0.2	T	0.0	0.0	32.7
1983-1984	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	2.6	21.1	0.3	19.0	T	0.0	0.0	43.0
1984-1985	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	3.7	7.0	10.2	3.7	2.0	0.0	0.0	26.6
1985-1986	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.0	1.3	0.8	10.4	2.6	T	0.0	0.0	18.1
1986-1987	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.5	3.4	24.3	3.7	3.5	4.1	0.0	0.0	42.5
1987-1988	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	9.0	7.5	17.0	14.1	5.0	T	0.0	0.0	52.6
1988-1989	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	0.0	3.7	1.5	6.7	3.2	0.4	0.0	0.0	15.5
1989-1990	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.5	6.2	7.0	16.9	4.1	0.5	0.0	0.0	39.2
1990-1991	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	1.2	11.7	2.8	3.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	19.1
1991-1992	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	5.8	0.4	4.0	10.8	1.0	0.0	0.0	22.0
1992-1993	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.6	9.7	12.9	19.6	38.9	2.2	0.0	0.0	83.9
1993-1994	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	11.6	33.7	36.2	14.8	0.0	0.0	0.0	96.3
1994-1995	0.0	T	0.0	0.0	0.1	1.5	4.4	8.5	0.4	T	0.0	0.0	14.9
1995-1996	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	4.1	24.1	39.8	15.5	16.8	7.3	0.0	0.0	107.6
1996-1997	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.8	5.0	9.7	4.8	8.2	22.4	0.0	0.0	51.9
1997-1998	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.9	7.8	10.0	0.3	3.6	T	0.0	0.0	25.6
1998-1999	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.8	16.8	7.4	11.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	36.4
1999-2000	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	13.2	9.2	2.0	T	0.0	0.0	24.4
2000-2001	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	T	4.5	12.4	9.8	19.2	T	0.0	0.0	45.9
2001-2002	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	0.0	5.0	7.9	0.5	1.4	0.3	0.0	T	15.1
2002-2003	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	3.6	11.1	4.2	41.6	8.1	2.3	0.0	0.0	70.9
2003-2004	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	0.0	21.5	4.9	2.4	10.6	T	0.0	0.0	39.4
2004-2005	T	0.0	0.0	0.0	3.9	7.2	43.3	17.7	14.5	T	0.0	0.0	86.6
2005-2006	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.1	T	10.7	8.1	20.0	T	T	0.0	0.0	39.9
2006-2007	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.8	1.0	4.6	10.2	0.5	0.0	0.0	17.1
2007-2008	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	26.9	8.3	15.0	1.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	51.2
2008-2009	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	25.3	23.7	6.2	10.7	0.0	0.0	0.0	65.9
2009-2010	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	15.2	13.2	7.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.0	35.7
2010-2011	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	22.0	38.3	18.5	1.3	0.9	0.0	T	81.0
2011-2012	0.0	0.0	0.0	1.0	T	T	6.8	0.9	0.6	0.0	0.0	0.0	9.3
2012-2013	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.4	3.4	5.0	34.0	20.6	T	0.0	0.0	63.4
2013-2014	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	11.7	21.8	22.9	2.2	0.3	0.0	0.0	58.9
2014-2015	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2.6	0.3	34.3	64.8	8.6	T	0.0	0.0	110.6
2015-2016	0.0	T	0.0	T	0.0	0.9	9.5	15.0	4.1	6.6	0.0	0.0	36.1
2016-2017	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	5.9	8.9	21.5	10.1	1.2	0.0	0.0	47.6
2017-2018	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	9.2	17.8	8.3	23.3	1.3	0.0	0.0	59.9
2018-2019	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	2.1	11.6	13.5	T	0.0	T	27.4
2019-2020	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	11.5	3.1	0.5	T	0.7	T	0.0	15.8
2020-2021	0.0	T	0.0	4.3	T	13.0	5.8	15.3	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	38.6
2021-2022	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	0.4	36.2	15.3	2.1	T	0.0	0.0	54.0
2022-2023	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	1.0	6.9	3.6	M	M	M	M	M

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Will, I’m not talking about 15 yrs ago. Sure 15 yrs ago they were all worse. I’m talking about when it was the bomb 8-10 yrs ago. As soon as they updated it after that, it got worse! I don’t care what anybody says..it’s not what it was then..at least when it comes to the evolution of storms around the east coast.  
 

Sure the GFS has gotten better for certain, and folks can think what they want, but it’s(Euro)not the same “steady” gem it once was.  Was it perfect? Of course not. And thats not what I mean. I think you know what I mean. It’s not the same solid model it once was 8+ years ago.  It jumps all over now. It makes huge jumps now in close..And as Luke put it…it’s “just another model” now.  
 

And yes, we have to take all models much more equally now, due to the fact as you pointed out,  the others have improved, and imo the Euro has not improved to the degree the others have, but has become more erratic and unsure it seems lots of times. Not saying it’s not a good model(still Varsity for sure), just seems it’s lost a step or two, and the others have gained a step or two. 

We will agree to disagree. I think you are conflating absolute model performance with relative model performance. Euro used to be way better than the others. But the others have closed the gap some so it doesn’t seem as trustworthy. 
 

I can provide you plenty of examples in the last 10 years where the euro had some hiccups…January 2015 blizzard for starters. Or January 2016 blizzard too. It was really late on Feb 5, 2016 as well. 
 

Its loss of prolific dominance is really the only striking feature I can identify in the euro now compared to 8-10 years ago. I don’t see it as being an actually worse model than back then. 

[powderfreak]

1 hour ago, KoalaBeer said:

Everyone shitting on the Euro but I’ve yet to see any data to back up it’s so called donkey ballz performance. Not saying that I have it…I’ve looked but model verification is hard to come by. Seems like there might be a little selective memory/recency bias when evaluating the models. Humans are inherently bad at correctly noting stuff like this IMO and it’s tough to trust what people ‘feel’ like they are seeing with the models without data to confirm it. 
 

100% selective memory and recency bias.

People remember a few distinct events and not the 360 other days out of a year too.

All it takes these days is one or two big snowstorms to completely change opinions of models.

Although it’s like a pitcher in baseball who puts up quality outing after quality outing, then gets lit up when the most eyes are on them. No one remembers the 10 previous wins, only the bad blown loss.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, George001 said:

SE MA has been below climo snow and well above normal temp since 2014-2015. Sorry you don’t like the data, but you aren’t the only one getting boned. If you don’t believe me and think I pulled those numbers out of my ass, you can analyze the data yourself like you do for your blogs. You say SE Mass has been “Getting lucky”, but I’d like to see some data supporting that. 

 

2 hours ago, George001 said:

The data says it’s been below average snow and above average temp in SE Mass post 2015. Also, I can fucking see it and feel it. It’s been warm, and bare grass in the heart of winter has been commonplace. There has been less snow and less cold than is typical of climo here, and thats about as debatable as AGW being real. So it’s really not debatable at all. 

I'm not talking about temps..take that data and shove it. The whole northeast has been warm..no one has been debating that. But if you calculate aggregate percentage of normal snowfall since 2014-2015, se MA is well ahead of other areas relative to climo. Stop debating and making an ass of yourself. 

[powderfreak]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We will agree to disagree. I think you are conflating absolute model performance with relative model performance. Euro used to be way better than the others. But the others have closed the gap some so it doesn’t seem as trustworthy. 
 

I can provide you plenty of examples in the last 10 years where the euro had some hiccups…January 2015 blizzard for starters. Or January 2016 blizzard too. It was really late on Feb 5, 2016 as well. 
 

January 2015 the Euro had 1-1.5” QPF way up through BTV like 24 hours or less from go-time. Reality was like 0.25”.

It has had its bad blown big storms.

I think it’s reputation has also fueled this idea that it’s worse. People “remember” this reputation of the GFS being horrible and Euro being God… when that wasn’t quite the case. But in their heads, that’s how it was 5-15 years ago.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I don't know ...it seems they all spent time on and off with that thing next week. 

The Euro may suck donkey ballz now but this isn't the test case to point that out.  They're all pieces of shit at this time of year anyway...

We are in a longitudinal pattern and no model typically does well in that regime, ...now adding that to spring vagaries on top ...?

There's no 'looking forward' to the next run of any guidance if one is being rational about limitations ...

Big warm up in April possible, btw

What a beautiful pompadour you were sporting on the news tonight!!

 

[WinterWolf]

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We will agree to disagree. I think you are conflating absolute model performance with relative model performance. Euro used to be way better than the others. But the others have closed the gap some so it doesn’t seem as trustworthy. 
 

I can provide you plenty of examples in the last 10 years where the euro had some hiccups…January 2015 blizzard for starters. Or January 2016 blizzard too. It was really late on Feb 5, 2016 as well. 
 

Its loss of prolific dominance is really the only striking feature I can identify in the euro now compared to 8-10 years ago. I don’t see it as being an actually worse model than back then. 

Fair enough.  
 

But it did seem to start loosing its prolific dominance right after that first upgrade…was that just coincidence? Or did something happen? Agree to disagree is fine. And Thanks for your explanations, always very reasonable. 

[WinterWolf]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What a beautiful pompadour you were sporting on the news tonight!!

 

Speaking of prolific…what a head of hair!  That’s our own Typhoon Tip. Looking good…like a Kennedy of Massachusetts.  

[ineedsnow]

18z EPS was even better for Wednesday

[Typhoon Tip]

Oh. That. Heh 

I had every news organization in New England knocking on my door when that train skipped the rail and sent its cargo down the ravine not more than 200 feet outside my front door. Sorry I didn’t have time to put my face on ha ha ha should’ve been wearing a baseball cap.

[George001]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

I'm not talking about temps..take that data and shove it. The whole northeast has been warm..no one has been debating that. But if you calculate aggregate percentage of normal snowfall since 2014-2015, se MA is well ahead of other areas relative to climo. Stop debating and making an ass of yourself. 

In the past 7 years SE Mass has been below SE Mass climo for snow too, it’s not just temps. Historically bad? No, I was wrong when I said that, but we sure as hell haven’t gotten “lucky” with snow the past 7 years. If you have data that proves SE Mass has been running above SE Mass climo post 2015, go ahead and prove me wrong. If you are seriously saying since we got boned less than other areas we are getting lucky, that’s bullshit. Any area that ran below their climo snow wise in the past 7 year got unlucky, and any area that ran above got lucky. The post 2015 period was great……. for Qqomega, Snowman19, and Torch Tiger.

[forkyfork]

did anyone see the aurora 

[George001]

Anyways, we shouldn’t ignore the temps. The snow has been below average, but the temps have been historically warm. SNE has warmed nearly 4 degrees ma Fahrenheit over the past century, and that warmth isn’t showing any signs of stopping. The global SSTs are warmer now than they were during the super nino in 2016. It hasn’t completely killed off our snow climo yet, but in the long run we know there’s going to be a point where the warmth wins out, and seasonal snow averages start declining quickly. It’s already happening in the mid Atlantic. There’s some good posts on that subforum about how while the past several winters should have been below average, they shouldn’t have been THIS bad based on analogs. We probably have another good run or two left, but we probably will see Boston’s climo decline to below 30 inches of snow per year in our lifetimes. Many of us on these boards love the snow, which is why I think there is such a strong pushback against anything that even suggests that snow climo could be deteriorating because of climate change. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

50 minutes ago, George001 said:

In the past 7 years SE Mass has been below SE Mass climo for snow too, it’s not just temps. Historically bad? No, I was wrong when I said that, but we sure as hell haven’t gotten “lucky” with snow the past 7 years. If you have data that proves SE Mass has been running above SE Mass climo post 2015, go ahead and prove me wrong. If you are seriously saying since we got boned less than other areas we are getting lucky, that’s bullshit. Any area that ran below their climo snow wise in the past 7 year got unlucky, and any area that ran above got lucky. The post 2015 period was great……. for Qqomega, Snowman19, and Torch Tiger.

You are the most nauseating poster that is perhaps the least equipped to evolve that I have come across in my nearly 20 years on here. Being utterly clueless isn't the largest indictment of you...no; it's how limited your insight into this bleak reality is. One asinine and woefully misguided take after another. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I really don't even think that it warrants it because it's a no-brainer, but I'll pull up some data this weekend if I get time. The idea that se MA "snow data" is declining is purely idiotic and complete nonsense. 

What is really laughable is the idea that resistance against the notion that se MA has had it rough is some kind of denial of climate change...irony is that the refusal to accept what a charmed existence se MA has had in terms of snowfall is born out of an aversion to the idea that they are in fact likely to endure further snowfall regression....projection much??

[George001]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I really don't even think that it warrants it because it's a no-brainer, but I'll pull up some data this weekend if I get time. The idea that se MA "snow data" is declining is purely idiotic and complete nonsense. 

Take a look at Jerry’s post. Past 7 years, an average of 41.56 inches in Boston, mean of 43.3 inches. It’s not a big decline, but as our warming continues to accelerate that number sure as hell isn’t going to go up. Yes, we’ve gotten more huge snowstorms the past 20 years which is why we didn’t see a decline in snowfall until recently. Eventually though the warmth wins out. You know this is true, call me a dumb fuck all you want but that won’t change anything. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, George001 said:

Take a look at Jerry’s post. Past 7 years, an average of 41.56 inches in Boston, mean of 43.3 inches. 

That is the average since 1890, not the past seven year...What is your point? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm ignoring temps because its irrelevant within the context of my focus, which is snowfall...not because I'm denying climate change.

[George001]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is the average since 1890, not the past seven year...What is your point? 

The average in the past 7 years (41.56 inches) is less than the average since 1890 (43.3 inches). Boston is running below climo over the past 7 years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, George001 said:

Take a look at Jerry’s post. Past 7 years, an average of 41.56 inches in Boston, mean of 43.3 inches. It’s not a big decline, but as our warming continues to accelerate that number sure as hell isn’t going to go up. Yes, we’ve gotten more huge snowstorms the past 20 years which is why we didn’t see a decline in snowfall until recently. Eventually though the warmth wins out. You know this is true, call me a dumb fuck all you want but that won’t change anything. 

I didn't call you dumb, you could be a genius for all I know....but you just need to think before you post. What decline in snowfall? You just had a 24-30" blizzard during another above average snowfall season last year. Jerry's data illustrates why you are in fact due to see less snow...you averaged just under 50" for the past 30 years, when you only averaged like 42" for the previous 100 years...when the globe was cooler!!! What does that tell you?? Impending drop off is probably due to simple regression rather than global warming.

I'm not calling you dumb, but you need to stop and think about what you are posting. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, George001 said:

The average in the past 7 years (41.56 inches) is less than the average since 1890 (43.3 inches). Boston is running below climo over the past 7 years.

I said se MA...meaning your area down through Taunton and into the s shore circle jerk area, where Scooter is.