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March 2023 Obs/Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

People are clouded by the fact that the Euro nailed Nemo from like Day 8 in and have this opinion that it used to nail every day 6-8 storm threat. Just absolutely not true. 

It nailed a lot before the upgrade though…Super storm Sandy from way out in 2012, and many others. But ya, it would fumble too at times, but it was much better before its first upgrade.  But Whatever.  

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8 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

People are clouded by the fact that the Euro nailed Nemo from like Day 8 in and have this opinion that it used to nail every day 6-8 storm threat. Just absolutely not true. 

Yeah I don’t remember these lead times being normal like people say.  It was really 4-5 days and inside.

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35 minutes ago, George001 said:

Ok, I looked at the actual data from the NWS for BOS from the winter of 2007-2008 to the winter of 2014-2015, as well as the timeframe starting with the winter of 2015-2016 to the present. Since 1890, Boston has averaged 49.2 inches of snow per year, so over an average 7 year period Boston would get 344.2 inches of snow. 

2008-2015: 476 inches, for an average of 68 inches of snow per year

2016-2023: 291.8 inches, for an average of 41.69 inches of snow per year

Ok, the data didn’t exactly prove me right, but it also suggests that you are wrong in your claim that we have been lucky since 2016. During the 2016-2023, Boston averaged 41.69 inches, or 84.74% of climo snowfall. That’s a bad stretch, but anywhere near extreme like I implied in my earlier posts. So yeah, I was wrong about my claim that the recent 7 year period was “historically bad” snow wise. However, it was also wrong to say we have been “lucky” since 2016. Now the 2008-2015 timeframe? Boston averaged 68 inches, or 138.2% of climo so we hit the fucking jackpot during those years. 

In terms of snow totals, If you say we’ve been lucky the past 15-20 years? Yep we have been. If you say we’ve been lucky the past 7 years? While it hasn’t been as snowless as I implied, we’ve been getting boned too. 

The data for Logan for a few years was suspect when they measured on a septic tank on Deer Island. 

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Any one recall the old MRF model from the 2000's.? I'm not sure, but did that become something else? 

I remember as a college weenie in my dorm, between Feb-March 2005 watching that model show a bomb every 7-10 days..the difference being a many of them panned out:lol:. Such a freakin good pattern for here that year. Now I'm not saying it was a good model, but I have just have nostalgia for that time period

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7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

If snow maps didn't exist 99.999999999% of storms in the D6-10 day range would get little, if any, attention. 

Maybe if weather men got rid of 10 day forecasts and stopped mentioning the potential for a snow storm out past day 4/5.....lots of blame put on the public but reality is the hype is real

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16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:


You fell for it again!! I’m dead!! This winter was great lol thanks for all the laughs! Lmfaoooo emoji3517.png emoji23.pngemoji23.pngemoji23.png

I mean there was a signal, but things changed. The storm got a lot weaker on the models today. Even the good runs didn’t exactly bury NYC with snow, this was always an interior threat. It’s still possible to track knowing you are on the outside looking in, there’s really nothing wrong with doing that. It’s just important to keep your expectations in check, and I didn’t see anyone hyping a possible spring snowstorm for the coast. Those of us who tracked and live on the coast knew going in that it was always going to be an extreme long shot that we would even get flakes, never mind significant accumulations.

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1 hour ago, George001 said:

Ok, I looked at the actual data from the NWS for BOS from the winter of 2007-2008 to the winter of 2014-2015, as well as the timeframe starting with the winter of 2015-2016 to the present. Since 1890, Boston has averaged 49.2 inches of snow per year, so over an average 7 year period Boston would get 344.2 inches of snow. 

2008-2015: 476 inches, for an average of 68 inches of snow per year

2016-2023: 291.8 inches, for an average of 41.69 inches of snow per year

Ok, the data didn’t exactly prove me right, but it also suggests that you are wrong in your claim that we have been lucky since 2016. During the 2016-2023, Boston averaged 41.69 inches, or 84.74% of climo snowfall. That’s a bad stretch, but anywhere near extreme like I implied in my earlier posts. So yeah, I was wrong about my claim that the recent 7 year period was “historically bad” snow wise. However, it was also wrong to say we have been “lucky” since 2016. Now the 2008-2015 timeframe? Boston averaged 68 inches, or 138.2% of climo so we hit the fucking jackpot during those years. 

In terms of snow totals, If you say we’ve been lucky the past 15-20 years? Yep we have been. If you say we’ve been lucky the past 7 years? While it hasn’t been as snowless as I implied, we’ve been getting boned too. 

I'm not wrong. Se MA has been lucky since 2014-2015.

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1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

People are clouded by the fact that the Euro nailed Nemo from like Day 8 in and have this opinion that it used to nail every day 6-8 storm threat. Just absolutely not true. 

We used to call it Dr. No.  It kept our trouser tents in check from GFS fantasy storms.  To me, its known more for the reality check.  

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

It’s gotten worse, and the others have improved too. It’s erratic now, and jumpy. Not as good as it was. 

I’m almost positive this is wrong. Models have gotten so much better than where we were 15 years ago. We remember the euro’s coups well because there were many, but it had plenty of times where it waffled a bit. I think it had the 12/19/08 storm as a Detroit cutter 5 days out until it quickly turned it into a snowy SWFE. I also recall it having some pretty huge solutions for interior SNE in December 2012 pre-Xmas about 4 days out that failed pretty horribly. We of course remember the Feb 2013 coup. 
 

The GFS imho is vastly improved so the relative difference between them has shrunk even though the euro has gotten better too. We were just so used to ignoring all the other models during large threats back then. Now we have to actually look at other guidance and consider it. 

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1 hour ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Any one recall the old MRF model from the 2000's.? I'm not sure, but did that become something else? 

I remember as a college weenie in my dorm, between Feb-March 2005 watching that model show a bomb every 7-10 days..the difference being a many of them panned out:lol:. Such a freakin good pattern for here that year. Now I'm not saying it was a good model, but I have just have nostalgia for that time period

As an early internet weenie, the mid-long range was the Aviation, then MRF and now GFS.  Not sure how much one model rolled into its successor.  ETA became the NAM, I get confused about different WRF packages.  And there was a model called the NGM that has just apparently died.

 

DGEX, supposedly allowing high resolution forecasts by initializing the NAM or ETA days in the future with MRF or GFS forecasts, that was a fun if not worthless model.

 

There was a trapezoidal variable grid model that ran GFS physics.  Nostalgia about models, I swear the old GFDL was better than the HMON.  But I could be wrong, there must have been some reason the GFDL was replaced.  IIRC, there was also a GFDL ensemble model that had less spread than the op model which was actually a bad thing.

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not wrong. Se MA has been lucky since 2014-2015.

SE MA has been below climo snow and well above normal temp since 2014-2015. Sorry you don’t like the data, but you aren’t the only one getting boned. If you don’t believe me and think I pulled those numbers out of my ass, you can analyze the data yourself like you do for your blogs. You say SE Mass has been “Getting lucky”, but I’d like to see some data supporting that. 

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I don't know ...it seems they all spent time on and off with that thing next week. 

The Euro may suck donkey ballz now but this isn't the test case to point that out.  They're all pieces of shit at this time of year anyway...

We are in a longitudinal pattern and no model typically does well in that regime, ...now adding that to spring vagaries on top ...?

There's no 'looking forward' to the next run of any guidance if one is being rational about limitations ...

Big warm up in April possible, btw

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The data says it’s been below average snow and above average temp in SE Mass post 2015. Also, I can fucking see it and feel it. It’s been warm, and bare grass in the heart of winter has been commonplace. There has been less snow and less cold than is typical of climo here, and thats about as debatable as AGW being real. So it’s really not debatable at all. 

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55 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

CAD rules as usual   36.6F Miserable day.  Light rain, high of 37.7F

Finally loosing snow cover on south slopes.  3-6" more of crap Saturday?

546.jpg

We’ve been bouncing 37-39F with some of the densest fog I can remember.  ASOS has been M1/4 off and on.

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