snowman19 Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Euro is a trash model You fell for it again!! I’m dead!! This winter was great lol thanks for all the laughs! Lmfaoooo 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 People are clouded by the fact that the Euro nailed Nemo from like Day 8 in and have this opinion that it used to nail every day 6-8 storm threat. Just absolutely not true. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: You fell for it again!! I’m dead!! This winter was great lol thanks for all the laughs! Lmfaoooo How did he fall for anything? He never forecasted a thing just talked about output. Your sense of humor is certainly perverted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said: People are clouded by the fact that the Euro nailed Nemo from like Day 8 in and have this opinion that it used to nail every day 6-8 storm threat. Just absolutely not true. It nailed a lot before the upgrade though…Super storm Sandy from way out in 2012, and many others. But ya, it would fumble too at times, but it was much better before its first upgrade. But Whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Just now, Ginx snewx said: How did he fall for anything? He never forecasted a thing just talked about output. Your sense of humor is certainly perverted Ya he’s a troll. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: It nailed a lot before the upgrade though…Super storm Sandy from way out in 2012, and many others. But ya, it would fumble too at times, but it was much better before its first upgrade. But Whatever. Has it truly gotten worse? Or have the other models gotten better? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: People are clouded by the fact that the Euro nailed Nemo from like Day 8 in and have this opinion that it used to nail every day 6-8 storm threat. Just absolutely not true. Yeah I don’t remember these lead times being normal like people say. It was really 4-5 days and inside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Has it truly gotten worse? Or have the other models gotten better? It’s gotten worse, and the others have improved too. It’s erratic now, and jumpy. Not as good as it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 If snow maps didn't exist 99.999999999% of storms in the D6-10 day range would get little, if any, attention. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 35 minutes ago, George001 said: Ok, I looked at the actual data from the NWS for BOS from the winter of 2007-2008 to the winter of 2014-2015, as well as the timeframe starting with the winter of 2015-2016 to the present. Since 1890, Boston has averaged 49.2 inches of snow per year, so over an average 7 year period Boston would get 344.2 inches of snow. 2008-2015: 476 inches, for an average of 68 inches of snow per year 2016-2023: 291.8 inches, for an average of 41.69 inches of snow per year Ok, the data didn’t exactly prove me right, but it also suggests that you are wrong in your claim that we have been lucky since 2016. During the 2016-2023, Boston averaged 41.69 inches, or 84.74% of climo snowfall. That’s a bad stretch, but anywhere near extreme like I implied in my earlier posts. So yeah, I was wrong about my claim that the recent 7 year period was “historically bad” snow wise. However, it was also wrong to say we have been “lucky” since 2016. Now the 2008-2015 timeframe? Boston averaged 68 inches, or 138.2% of climo so we hit the fucking jackpot during those years. In terms of snow totals, If you say we’ve been lucky the past 15-20 years? Yep we have been. If you say we’ve been lucky the past 7 years? While it hasn’t been as snowless as I implied, we’ve been getting boned too. The data for Logan for a few years was suspect when they measured on a septic tank on Deer Island. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Any one recall the old MRF model from the 2000's.? I'm not sure, but did that become something else? I remember as a college weenie in my dorm, between Feb-March 2005 watching that model show a bomb every 7-10 days..the difference being a many of them panned out. Such a freakin good pattern for here that year. Now I'm not saying it was a good model, but I have just have nostalgia for that time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: If snow maps didn't exist 99.999999999% of storms in the D6-10 day range would get little, if any, attention. Maybe if weather men got rid of 10 day forecasts and stopped mentioning the potential for a snow storm out past day 4/5.....lots of blame put on the public but reality is the hype is real 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 16 minutes ago, snowman19 said: You fell for it again!! I’m dead!! This winter was great lol thanks for all the laughs! Lmfaoooo I mean there was a signal, but things changed. The storm got a lot weaker on the models today. Even the good runs didn’t exactly bury NYC with snow, this was always an interior threat. It’s still possible to track knowing you are on the outside looking in, there’s really nothing wrong with doing that. It’s just important to keep your expectations in check, and I didn’t see anyone hyping a possible spring snowstorm for the coast. Those of us who tracked and live on the coast knew going in that it was always going to be an extreme long shot that we would even get flakes, never mind significant accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Maybe if weather men got rid of 10 day forecasts and stopped mentioning the potential for a snow storm out past day 4/5.....lots of blame put on the public but reality is the hype is real I agree with this 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Not for nothing but EPS has multiple members still in the game. If I forecasted I would definitely not write it off. Emotionally sure after this year but it's science not emotions 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2023 Author Share Posted March 23, 2023 1 hour ago, George001 said: Ok, I looked at the actual data from the NWS for BOS from the winter of 2007-2008 to the winter of 2014-2015, as well as the timeframe starting with the winter of 2015-2016 to the present. Since 1890, Boston has averaged 49.2 inches of snow per year, so over an average 7 year period Boston would get 344.2 inches of snow. 2008-2015: 476 inches, for an average of 68 inches of snow per year 2016-2023: 291.8 inches, for an average of 41.69 inches of snow per year Ok, the data didn’t exactly prove me right, but it also suggests that you are wrong in your claim that we have been lucky since 2016. During the 2016-2023, Boston averaged 41.69 inches, or 84.74% of climo snowfall. That’s a bad stretch, but anywhere near extreme like I implied in my earlier posts. So yeah, I was wrong about my claim that the recent 7 year period was “historically bad” snow wise. However, it was also wrong to say we have been “lucky” since 2016. Now the 2008-2015 timeframe? Boston averaged 68 inches, or 138.2% of climo so we hit the fucking jackpot during those years. In terms of snow totals, If you say we’ve been lucky the past 15-20 years? Yep we have been. If you say we’ve been lucky the past 7 years? While it hasn’t been as snowless as I implied, we’ve been getting boned too. I'm not wrong. Se MA has been lucky since 2014-2015. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2023 Author Share Posted March 23, 2023 Glad I didn't fall for it this time. Get me out of this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Glad I didn't fall for it this time. Get me out of this season. Yeah, not many did. People are exhausted. This winter is leaving exactly as it came in, weak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said: People are clouded by the fact that the Euro nailed Nemo from like Day 8 in and have this opinion that it used to nail every day 6-8 storm threat. Just absolutely not true. We used to call it Dr. No. It kept our trouser tents in check from GFS fantasy storms. To me, its known more for the reality check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: It’s gotten worse, and the others have improved too. It’s erratic now, and jumpy. Not as good as it was. I’m almost positive this is wrong. Models have gotten so much better than where we were 15 years ago. We remember the euro’s coups well because there were many, but it had plenty of times where it waffled a bit. I think it had the 12/19/08 storm as a Detroit cutter 5 days out until it quickly turned it into a snowy SWFE. I also recall it having some pretty huge solutions for interior SNE in December 2012 pre-Xmas about 4 days out that failed pretty horribly. We of course remember the Feb 2013 coup. The GFS imho is vastly improved so the relative difference between them has shrunk even though the euro has gotten better too. We were just so used to ignoring all the other models during large threats back then. Now we have to actually look at other guidance and consider it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 1 hour ago, SouthCoastMA said: Any one recall the old MRF model from the 2000's.? I'm not sure, but did that become something else? I remember as a college weenie in my dorm, between Feb-March 2005 watching that model show a bomb every 7-10 days..the difference being a many of them panned out. Such a freakin good pattern for here that year. Now I'm not saying it was a good model, but I have just have nostalgia for that time period As an early internet weenie, the mid-long range was the Aviation, then MRF and now GFS. Not sure how much one model rolled into its successor. ETA became the NAM, I get confused about different WRF packages. And there was a model called the NGM that has just apparently died. DGEX, supposedly allowing high resolution forecasts by initializing the NAM or ETA days in the future with MRF or GFS forecasts, that was a fun if not worthless model. There was a trapezoidal variable grid model that ran GFS physics. Nostalgia about models, I swear the old GFDL was better than the HMON. But I could be wrong, there must have been some reason the GFDL was replaced. IIRC, there was also a GFDL ensemble model that had less spread than the op model which was actually a bad thing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 This was such a unique event and was modeled well days out Had 8” here. That’s my ruler! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: This was such a unique event and was modeled well days out Had 8” here. That’s my ruler! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 CAD rules as usual 36.6F Miserable day. Light rain, high of 37.7F Finally loosing snow cover on south slopes. 3-6" more of crap Saturday? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: What’s crazy is the tweet they sent there .. that pic of no snow is from there in Ellington In the valley. There’s an elevated area as you go from Ellington into Tolland of 600-700’ and that’s where that 6” was . Literally under a mile Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not wrong. Se MA has been lucky since 2014-2015. SE MA has been below climo snow and well above normal temp since 2014-2015. Sorry you don’t like the data, but you aren’t the only one getting boned. If you don’t believe me and think I pulled those numbers out of my ass, you can analyze the data yourself like you do for your blogs. You say SE Mass has been “Getting lucky”, but I’d like to see some data supporting that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 I don't know ...it seems they all spent time on and off with that thing next week. The Euro may suck donkey ballz now but this isn't the test case to point that out. They're all pieces of shit at this time of year anyway... We are in a longitudinal pattern and no model typically does well in that regime, ...now adding that to spring vagaries on top ...? There's no 'looking forward' to the next run of any guidance if one is being rational about limitations ... Big warm up in April possible, btw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 The data says it’s been below average snow and above average temp in SE Mass post 2015. Also, I can fucking see it and feel it. It’s been warm, and bare grass in the heart of winter has been commonplace. There has been less snow and less cold than is typical of climo here, and thats about as debatable as AGW being real. So it’s really not debatable at all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 46 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: CAD rules as usual 36.6F Miserable day. Light rain, high of 37.7F Finally loosing snow cover on south slopes. 3-6" more of crap Saturday? Lots of deer. Any bucks show up on camera in the fall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 55 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: CAD rules as usual 36.6F Miserable day. Light rain, high of 37.7F Finally loosing snow cover on south slopes. 3-6" more of crap Saturday? We’ve been bouncing 37-39F with some of the densest fog I can remember. ASOS has been M1/4 off and on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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