HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 56 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Glad we don’t live there. Not really sunny here, but temp up to 63 Wow, 51° and rain in Greenfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 41 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: It did not 6z eps is weak sauce and SE of benchmark as well. 12z yesterday, 00z, then 6z.. That's timing for 6 z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 2 hours ago, WinterWolf said: Shit day here…any warmth fail..drizzle and damp and 51 degrees. Similar here but's still in the mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 1 minute ago, tamarack said: Similar here but's still in the mid 30s. Good snow to your north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 32 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Because one model which is notorious for being too far SE and OTS lost it on an op run? Fade 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: That's timing for 6 z She gone ginx man, sorry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Another one bites the dust yea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Just now, Whineminster said: She gone ginx man, sorry Sorry? Shit I moved on to spring just report what models spit out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Man, the euro really crapped the bed with this event….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, Heisy said: Man, the euro really crapped the bed with this event…. . look at it this way, this shift helps the Rockies get their 43rd blizzard of the year! they’ve really been starved for snow out there, good for them 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 53 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Drunk. 15-16 was not a ratter. 16-17, was good. 17-18 was great, 18-19 was decent. 19-20 stunk but not necessarily ratter (less than 20"). 20-21 was decent. 21-22 good. We are talking snow, not temps. Of course, that differs by location! 15-16 was the least snowy here in our 25 winters and it was even worse for NVT. 16-17 was near epic and Pi Day was one of only 4 blizz criteria events here. 17-18 and 18-19 were good, 19-20 was BN, saved from ratterdom by 22" post-equinox, 20-21 ratter, 21-22 near-ratter, 22-23 avg to good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: That's timing for 6 z What’s the difference ? That’s as far as 6z goes out, the trend is weaker and out to sea.. Here’s the 3run trend on euro .. can it come back sure.. but as of now it’s trending away from any impact.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Tues-Weds falling by the wayside on just about all guidance, Saturday night looks minor here to now, Good on both fronts. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Weenies deflated. This seems appropos for the season for most. I think the general public will be elated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Euro is a trash model 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Weenies deflated. This seems appropos for the season for most. I think the general public will be elated. General public tried moving on in Jan-Feb here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro is a trash model It’s just not what it used to be..not even close. This is what’s been the models problem since they first upgraded it, and ruined the thing. Seems lost many times..just like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 It was a day 6-7 threat.... 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Just now, ORH_wxman said: It was a day 6-7 threat.... Still though…it’s not the king anymore, not even close. It shows it time and time again. This was just another example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ma blizzard Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Model skill in the medium / long range def goes down this time of year. It shouldn't be surprising to see big run to run changes at extended lead times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Onto April? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Still though…it’s not the king anymore, not even close. It shows it time and time again. This was just another example. Yeah I know it's not utterly dominant anymore, but this really isn't a good example....since day 6-7 is fringe clown range. Nobody should expect model guidance to be consistent at this range. It honestly wouldn't be that surprising if it came back either. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 All I’m asking for is sunny days in the 50s at this point. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I know it's not utterly dominant anymore, but this really isn't a good example....since day 6-7 is fringe clown range. Nobody should expect model guidance to be consistent at this range. It honestly wouldn't be that surprising if it came back either. Agreed that it’s a 6-7 day threat, and things get lost and reappear some times, but the old King would have more times than not sniffed this out, and it would have either shown a non event, or held the big storm idea from 5-7 days out like it used to do more often than not. But not any more. But agreed it’s still a big lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes, you have. You are wrong. Ok, I looked at the actual data from the NWS for BOS from the winter of 2007-2008 to the winter of 2014-2015, as well as the timeframe starting with the winter of 2015-2016 to the present. Since 1890, Boston has averaged 49.2 inches of snow per year, so over an average 7 year period Boston would get 344.2 inches of snow. 2008-2015: 476 inches, for an average of 68 inches of snow per year 2016-2023: 291.8 inches, for an average of 41.69 inches of snow per year Ok, the data didn’t exactly prove me right, but it also suggests that you are wrong in your claim that we have been lucky since 2016. During the 2016-2023, Boston averaged 41.69 inches, or 84.74% of climo snowfall. That’s a bad stretch, but anywhere near extreme like I implied in my earlier posts. So yeah, I was wrong about my claim that the recent 7 year period was “historically bad” snow wise. However, it was also wrong to say we have been “lucky” since 2016. Now the 2008-2015 timeframe? Boston averaged 68 inches, or 138.2% of climo so we hit the fucking jackpot during those years. In terms of snow totals, If you say we’ve been lucky the past 15-20 years? Yep we have been. If you say we’ve been lucky the past 7 years? While it hasn’t been as snowless as I implied, we’ve been getting boned too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Just b/c a model goes from "storm to no storm" and vice-versa doesn't mean a model sucks. This is one reason why I think there are just too many products available to assess. In the medium range the only products that hold any weight whatsoever are mid/upper-level. Forget what the snow maps show, forget what the QPF maps show, and forget what the SLP tracks are. All those products...are useless and pointless in the medium range. You have to understand why a model is wavering back-and-forth. In the case of this potential, there are several key pieces at hand 1) PV and associated confluence 2) Shortwave energy within the north stream You can even expand this list and focus how the energy moving into the PAC NW is influencing the evolution of the pattern downstream It is unrealistic to expect a model to be consistent or sniff these features and their exactly evolution nearly perfect in that range. There is too much chaos involved. That will never, ever, ever happen. When looking into the medium range, all you want to see is how your key features are being played out by each model while using the current pattern regime to hopefully narrow down a list of potential solutions/outcomes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Just now, weatherwiz said: Just b/c a model goes from "storm to no storm" and vice-versa doesn't mean a model sucks. This is one reason why I think there are just too many products available to assess. In the medium range the only products that hold any weight whatsoever are mid/upper-level. Forget what the snow maps show, forget what the QPF maps show, and forget what the SLP tracks are. All those products...are useless and pointless in the medium range. You have to understand why a model is wavering back-and-forth. In the case of this potential, there are several key pieces at hand 1) PV and associated confluence 2) Shortwave energy within the north stream You can even expand this list and focus how the energy moving into the PAC NW is influencing the evolution of the pattern downstream It is unrealistic to expect a model to be consistent or sniff these features and their exactly evolution nearly perfect in that range. There is too much chaos involved. That will never, ever, ever happen. When looking into the medium range, all you want to see is how your key features are being played out by each model while using the current pattern regime to hopefully narrow down a list of potential solutions/outcomes. You take models for the strengths for the ranges their intended for, Never use just one exclusively but you can weigh some in more then others once you start getting inside reasonable time frames, They all have there boundaries. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 11 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: All I’m asking for is sunny days in the 50s at this point. Lots of those coming next week 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 1 minute ago, dryslot said: You take models for the strengths for the ranges their intended for, Never use just one exclusively but you can weigh some in more then others once you start getting inside reasonable time frames, They all have there boundaries. Right, you never want to just take one model and run with it. Understanding which model may be performing the best in a given pattern regime can help provide some great guidance too. But I think we've become so fixated on threats in the D6-10 and beyond range these last several years that expectations have just been cut to shreds and if some D8 "threat" doesn't verify all of a sudden a model or models are trash. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Agreed that it’s a 6-7 day threat, and things get lost and reappear some times, but the old King would have more times than not sniffed this out, and it would have either shown a non event, or held the big storm idea from 5-7 days out like it used to do more often than not. But not any more. But agreed it’s still a big lead time. I'd really put the line more closer to day 5 when it really became more lethal against its competition....that's when the old Euro sniffed out some of the past big dogs like Jan 2011 and Feb 2013 or even Jan 2018. These 150-174 hour storms are going to be all over the place...and it's on all guidance too just not the Euro....GFS went from basically nothing to a deep layer easterly crush job yesterday at 12z to a mid-atlantic special in 3 consecutive runs....and now back to nothing again. Canadian had nothing mostly, and then all of the sudden today it decided it wanted to play. Some of the storms in recent years have been tracked from D7-8 which probably clouds our judgement on model skill. Dec 17, 2020 we tracked from like D9, lol...and I think a couple others we tracked from a long ways out....I know Feb 1-2, 2021 was at least 8 days and so was last January 29th. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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