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March 2023 Obs/Disco


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SE Mass has not “done well” or gotten “lucky” since 2015. It’s been a sea of warmth with one or two good years mixed in. No winter enthusiast in SE Mass will look fondly over the 2016-2023 period, the 2008-2015 period was WAY better. Lets compare the 2:

2008-2015:

1 ratter (2011-2012)

2 epic winters (2010-2011, 2014-2015)

2 very good winters (2012-2013, 2013-2012 

2 average winters (2008-2009, 2007-2008

1 below average winter (2009-2010)

vs 2016-2023:

3 ratters (2015-2016, 2019-2020, 2022-2023) 

no epic winters (yuck)

1 very good winter (2017-2018)

2 average winters (2016-2017, 2021-2022)

2 below average winters (2020-2021, 2018-2019)


 

So that is 4 above average winters, 2 average winters, and 2 below average winters for 2008-2015. I’d say we had a really nice run during that period, with plenty of severe blizzards and also it got….. cold. 2016-2023 on the other hand was historically bad for winter enthusiasts in SE Mass, with 5 below average winters, 2 average winters, and only 1 above average winter! If you strictly measure by seasonal snow totals it can be argued I’m being too harsh on the 2016-2023 period, but snowpack and cold matter as well when evaluating how “good” a winter has been as a winter enthusiast. The whole “We’ve been lucky in SE Mass the past several years” talk is complete nonsense. It’s been a historically unfavorable stretch for winter enthusiasts for all of SNE. 

Im all for embracing the weather we get, but the whole downplaying how unfavorable the past 7 winters has been from a winter enthusiast standpoint is very strange. 

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5 minutes ago, George001 said:

SE Mass has not “done well” or gotten “lucky” since 2015. It’s been a sea of warmth with one or two good years mixed in. No winter enthusiast in SE Mass will look fondly over the 2016-2023 period, the 2008-2015 period was WAY better. Lets compare the 2:

2008-2015:

1 ratter (2011-2012)

2 epic winters (2010-2011, 2014-2015)

2 very good winters (2012-2013, 2013-2012 

2 average winters (2008-2009, 2007-2008

1 below average winter (2009-2010)

vs 2016-2023:

3 ratters (2015-2016, 2019-2020, 2022-2023) 

no epic winters (yuck)

1 very good winter (2017-2018)

2 average winters (2016-2017, 2021-2022)

2 below average winters (2020-2021, 2018-2019)


 

So that is 4 above average winters, 2 average winters, and 2 below average winters for 2008-2015. I’d say we had a really nice run during that period, with plenty of severe blizzards and also it got….. cold. 2016-2023 on the other hand was historically bad for winter enthusiasts in SE Mass, with 5 below average winters, 2 average winters, and only 1 above average winter! If you strictly measure by seasonal snow totals it can be argued I’m being too harsh on the 2016-2023 period, but snowpack and cold matter as well when evaluating how “good” a winter has been as a winter enthusiast. The whole “We’ve been lucky in SE Mass the past several years” talk is complete nonsense. It’s been a historically unfavorable stretch for winter enthusiasts for all of SNE. 

Im all for embracing the weather we get, but the whole downplaying how unfavorable the past 7 winters has been from a winter enthusiast standpoint is very strange. 

Drunk. 15-16 was not a ratter. 16-17, was good. 17-18 was great, 18-19 was decent. 19-20 stunk but not necessarily ratter (less than 20"). 20-21 was decent.  21-22 good. We are talking snow, not temps. 

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8 minutes ago, George001 said:

SE Mass has not “done well” or gotten “lucky” since 2015. It’s been a sea of warmth with one or two good years mixed in. No winter enthusiast in SE Mass will look fondly over the 2016-2023 period, the 2008-2015 period was WAY better. Lets compare the 2:

2008-2015:

1 ratter (2011-2012)

2 epic winters (2010-2011, 2014-2015)

2 very good winters (2012-2013, 2013-2012 

2 average winters (2008-2009, 2007-2008

1 below average winter (2009-2010)

vs 2016-2023:

3 ratters (2015-2016, 2019-2020, 2022-2023) 

no epic winters (yuck)

1 very good winter (2017-2018)

2 average winters (2016-2017, 2021-2022)

2 below average winters (2020-2021, 2018-2019)


 

So that is 4 above average winters, 2 average winters, and 2 below average winters for 2008-2015. I’d say we had a really nice run during that period, with plenty of severe blizzards and also it got….. cold. 2016-2023 on the other hand was historically bad for winter enthusiasts in SE Mass, with 5 below average winters, 2 average winters, and only 1 above average winter! If you strictly measure by seasonal snow totals it can be argued I’m being too harsh on the 2016-2023 period, but snowpack and cold matter as well when evaluating how “good” a winter has been as a winter enthusiast. The whole “We’ve been lucky in SE Mass the past several years” talk is complete nonsense. It’s been a historically unfavorable stretch for winter enthusiasts for all of SNE. 

Im all for embracing the weather we get, but the whole downplaying how unfavorable the past 7 winters has been from a winter enthusiast standpoint is very strange. 

Yes, you have. You are wrong.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yes, you have. You are wrong.

I haven’t actually pulled the numbers yet, but I’d bet they will say my area has been both above average in temp and below average snow the past 7 years. I will acknowledge that we haven’t gotten boned AS much as your area and west of the river has, but it’s been a very tame stretch. If you want to actually quantify this to prove me wrong, how would calculating the snow for the last 7 years, and then comparing it to the previous 7 years, and then comparing it to the average 7 year span sound? That won’t be perfect (because my area is a bit more inland and SW) but close enough imo.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Drunk. 15-16 was not a ratter. 16-17, was good. 17-18 was great, 18-19 was decent. 19-20 stunk but not necessarily ratter (less than 20"). 20-21 was decent.  21-22 good. We are talking snow, not temps. 

Yeah I was gonna respond, but glad I saw you responded first....I'd agree we've been kind of "due" for one of those prolonged colder stretches (even within the realm background warming)....but the snow hasn't been absent at all from SE MA on the whole over the last 8 seasons.

But we gotta flush the general trend of of all the cold dumping into the plains and rockies before we return to more prolonged colder stretches in winter. Hopefully next year does that in an El Nino. You can see how the previous winters of the 21st century differed from the most recent 8 winters.....look where the max warming is (in the east) with little change or even cooling in the N plains to N Rockies and Northwest...with a lot of cooling in the NAO region.

image.png.fe5e02659b6e63ef74bc7c38d5b27255.png

 

 

 

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6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

He threw in 2008-09 as “average” despite Logan being 50% above. 

Im going to be honest, I didn’t actually dive into the numbers, was mostly going off memory (which can and did fail me for some of those earlier winters). I’ll dive into the numbers and update that earlier post with more accurate information. 

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If you want to see how my comparison looks at H5, it's pretty much what you'd expect....all that -PNA troughing trend combined with a mostly more positive NAO (even with this winter included in the composite) compared to 2000-2015

 

image.png.19dcc08191cd73d4ecf6cf7db3182be6.png

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