WinterWolf Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Ya that’s the only other one I found with widespread 20”+ .. had 20” here Obviously widespread is the key word. My area has been 20 plus quite a bit in the big ones…over the last 3-4 decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: For absolute jackpots, yes....but this is failure to sniff climo snowfall dating back over 5 years. We all have fallen behind climo normals now with this year for 21st century 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: For absolute jackpots, yes....but this is failure to sniff climo snowfall dating back over 5 years. Yes sad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2023 Author Share Posted March 23, 2023 12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: We all have fallen behind climo normals now with this year for 21st century Not as badly as this area the past 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not as badly as this area the past 5 years. Yep congrats on the negative JP 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 3 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: Not seeing a lot of spring warmth over the next few weeks it seems. It's above normal the last 3 days ... in the 50s. I guess it depends on one's expectations but the charts from 10 days ago, for this week, were not much different than the charts now for 10 days from now - with one subtle exception, they are warmer in the general panache. Yet we are above normal in spring... I guess if by 'spring warmth' we rock 70s in convertibles ... probably not? But it's spring. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: You live in kind of a dead zone like PF says. I would gather your return on 18 plus storms is much less than all points of the compass from you. SNE/CNE has plenty of screw zones. Although, in most cases they have to do with topography and elevation whereas that is not as big of an issue in Ray’s area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 I guess it depends on one's expectations but the charts from 10 days ago, for this week, were not much different than the charts now for 10 days from now - with one subtle exception, they are warmer in the general panache. That look back whence, which had sub 540 hydrostatic heights everywhere btw, resulted in 50s this week under Equinox warm sun. So...we are above normal in spring, despite that look. It's a hidden trend established in near perpetuity spanning the past ... oh 10 years really, to always have to add warmth to mid and especially the extended. The arctic outbreaks of 2016 and early this last Feb were exceptions to that rule... But here, we combine that with spring's tending to do that, anyway. Then, adding the present negative PNA through the period... mmm gee, I think it may end up warmer than the modeled signal. The question is...can a system along the way "overcompensate" ... maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gonegalt Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: general panache Ivory Coast rebel? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Shit day here…any warmth fail..drizzle and damp and 51 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Shit day here…any warmth fail..drizzle and damp and 51 degrees. Same here but 59, may finally touch 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 11 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Same here but 59, may finally touch 60. Ya you’re a little warmer there…too bad the sun couldn’t pop out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2023 Author Share Posted March 23, 2023 41 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: SNE/CNE has plenty of screw zones. Although, in most cases they have to do with topography and elevation whereas that is not as big of an issue in Ray’s area. Problem with my area is I am often too far inland to get in on low level deformation near the coast, but not far enough inland to entirely avoid marine taint and get deformation areas to the west that the costal plane misses out on. I really need to thread a small needle to jackpot in a large event. My area is also far enough north to get fringed or miss some SNE deals, but seldom far enough north to clean up on NNE deals that SNE misses out on...I'll get "better scraps" than SNE, sure... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's above normal the last 3 days ... in the 50s. I guess it depends on one's expectations but the charts from 10 days ago, for this week, were not much different than the charts now for 10 days from now - with one subtle exception, they are warmer in the general panache. Yet we are above normal in spring... I guess if by 'spring warmth' we rock 70s in convertibles ... probably not? But it's spring. This wouldn't really be effective with the general public, but I think it would be beneficial to start looking at above-below average temperatures in terms of standard deviation as opposed to just the boring ole departure. Hell, I think it would be great to be able to do something based on a historical basis. For example, say the average high temperature at BDL is 52. It would be interesting to see each high temperatures for each March 23 in the database. Judging a 60-65F reading against that average may seem quite impressive, however, if the data is skewed towards that range is it as impressive as it really seems? also, outliers should be removed from the calculations (I wonder if they are or not). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2023 Author Share Posted March 23, 2023 Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said: Good. Hopefully GEFS and EPS lose it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2023 Author Share Posted March 23, 2023 That trend from Sey-Mour Snow is to Sey-Less Snow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 31 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Shit day here…any warmth fail..drizzle and damp and 51 degrees. Gwdlt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 Still a lot of model discrepancy as the Canadian wants to entertain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Still a lot of model discrepancy as the Canadian wants to entertain. Only Canadian I'm concerned about is the Montreal Canadiens tonight 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Still a lot of model discrepancy as the Canadian wants to entertain. Ya could just be a case of the gfs being occasionally horrible, or it’s in to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Still a lot of model discrepancy as the Canadian wants to entertain. There's like 3 vortmaxes in the flow....so guidance will prob need a little more time to figure them out. Ukie was pretty much nothing. Icon almost pulled a Canadian but not quite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2023 Author Share Posted March 23, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: There's like 3 vortmaxes in the flow....so guidance will prob need a little more time to figure them out. Ukie was pretty much nothing. Icon almost pulled a Canadian but not quite. Canadian had been the boring outlier, too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Still a lot of model discrepancy as the Canadian wants to entertain. Shakin the pasties in our face 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There's like 3 vortmaxes in the flow....so guidance will prob need a little more time to figure them out. Ukie was pretty much nothing. Icon almost pulled a Canadian but not quite. Yeah you can tell the timing of which one is valid, is causing some issues. GEFS have a weak low, but probably related to timing as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2023 Author Share Posted March 23, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah you can tell the timing of which one is valid, is causing some issues. GEFS have a week low, but probably related to timing as well. EPS has been trending weaker, as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That trend from Sey-Mour Snow is to Sey-Less Snow. Sey-Mour Cirrus has a nice ring to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: EPS has been trending weaker, as well. I think it's muted due to members not knowing what to do. I haven't looked at the spread yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 23, 2023 Author Share Posted March 23, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: I think it's muted due to members not knowing what to do. I haven't looked at the spread yet. I haven't, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted March 23, 2023 Share Posted March 23, 2023 56 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Shit day here…any warmth fail..drizzle and damp and 51 degrees. Glad we don’t live there. Not really sunny here, but temp up to 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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