RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Wish this was mid season but we’ll take it if we can score a KU type of an event, or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 10 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Wouldn't this lead to suppression Suppression can happen, but I always love seeing the best negative height anomalies going through the southern mid-atlantic for big snows in New England. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 the EPS (and GEPS to a lesser extent) is basically a perfect pattern progression. every synoptic feature is here for a major storm somewhere on the EC around the 10th: highly anomalous, decaying -NAO over the Davis Strait anomalous -EPO/-WPO to deliver Arctic air into the E US highly anomalous, semi-permanent 50/50 ULL signal for a vigorous S/W ejecting out of the Rockies as the PNA trends neutral... likely ending up slightly positive due to the Pacific Rex block I want to see increased ENS support for this progression, mainly from the GEFS, but this is about as high-end of a pattern progression as you can get. compare this to the 7-day preloading composite for NYC's 18"+ storms... there are any of the same pattern features, namely the decaying west-based block and deep 50/50 ULL. SNE also gets large storms with this kind of composite, but it is admittedly harder N of BOS I don't mean to honk this early, but this is the best looking pattern progression since Feb 2021, which was the last blizzard spawning from this type of pattern. many of the same features show up there, as well. it's not a coincidence 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the EPS (and GEPS to a lesser extent) is basically a perfect pattern progression. every synoptic feature is here for a major storm somewhere on the EC around the 10th: highly anomalous, decaying -NAO over the Davis Strait anomalous -EPO/-WPO to deliver Arctic air into the E US highly anomalous, semi-permanent 50/50 ULL signal for a vigorous S/W ejecting out of the Rockies as the PNA trends neutral... likely ending up slightly positive due to the Pacific Rex block I want to see increased ENS support for this progression, mainly from the GEFS, but this is about as high-end of a pattern progression as you can get. compare this to the 7-day preloading composite for NYC's 18"+ storms... there are any of the same pattern features, namely the decaying west-based block and deep 50/50 ULL. SNE also gets large storms with this kind of composite, but it is admittedly harder N of BOS I don't mean to honk this early, but this is the best looking pattern progression since Feb 2021, which was the last blizzard spawning from this type of pattern. many of the same features show up there, as well. it's not a coincidence Its been a good 2nd half here; I'm happy to share the love and not be the jackpot if it reduces suffering. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 47 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the EPS (and GEPS to a lesser extent) is basically a perfect pattern progression. every synoptic feature is here for a major storm somewhere on the EC around the 10th: highly anomalous, decaying -NAO over the Davis Strait anomalous -EPO/-WPO to deliver Arctic air into the E US highly anomalous, semi-permanent 50/50 ULL signal for a vigorous S/W ejecting out of the Rockies as the PNA trends neutral... likely ending up slightly positive due to the Pacific Rex block I want to see increased ENS support for this progression, mainly from the GEFS, but this is about as high-end of a pattern progression as you can get. compare this to the 7-day preloading composite for NYC's 18"+ storms... there are any of the same pattern features, namely the decaying west-based block and deep 50/50 ULL. SNE also gets large storms with this kind of composite, but it is admittedly harder N of BOS I don't mean to honk this early, but this is the best looking pattern progression since Feb 2021, which was the last blizzard spawning from this type of pattern. many of the same features show up there, as well. it's not a coincidence George01 probably feels it is unfair for you to use 'blizzard' in context when he gets targeted for social destruction whenever he does ... hahahaha No, but I see where you are coming from. Echoing my earlier sentiments, I'm a bigger fan for post cold loading --> block relaxation windows in general. When I map that potential ( as is emergent now...) over top my own methodology ...I see March 11-12-13, but the 10th is certainly doable/adjustable at this range. Sure - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 27, 2023 Share Posted February 27, 2023 Euro weeklies love March 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Euro weeklies love March Nice. We see it on the ens already, enough to know we should continue to produce. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2023 Author Share Posted February 28, 2023 4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: the EPS (and GEPS to a lesser extent) is basically a perfect pattern progression. every synoptic feature is here for a major storm somewhere on the EC around the 10th: highly anomalous, decaying -NAO over the Davis Strait anomalous -EPO/-WPO to deliver Arctic air into the E US highly anomalous, semi-permanent 50/50 ULL signal for a vigorous S/W ejecting out of the Rockies as the PNA trends neutral... likely ending up slightly positive due to the Pacific Rex block I want to see increased ENS support for this progression, mainly from the GEFS, but this is about as high-end of a pattern progression as you can get. compare this to the 7-day preloading composite for NYC's 18"+ storms... there are any of the same pattern features, namely the decaying west-based block and deep 50/50 ULL. SNE also gets large storms with this kind of composite, but it is admittedly harder N of BOS I don't mean to honk this early, but this is the best looking pattern progression since Feb 2021, which was the last blizzard spawning from this type of pattern. many of the same features show up there, as well. it's not a coincidence Say it with me now...everyone....March 1956. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Say it with me now...everyone....March 1956. How much snow did BOS/ORH get that year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Say it with me now...everyone....March 1956. Just googled Blue Hills March 1956........YES please! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2023 Author Share Posted February 28, 2023 Just now, 8611Blizz said: How much snow did BOS/ORH get that year? Like 40-50" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2023 Author Share Posted February 28, 2023 Just now, 512high said: Just googled Blue Hills March 1959........YES please! Not sure about 1959... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2023 Author Share Posted February 28, 2023 5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Suppression can happen, but I always love seeing the best negative height anomalies going through the southern mid-atlantic for big snows in New England. We aren't whiffing on a pattern like that twice in a season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Looks just like Morch 2012. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not sure about 1959... edit: lol my bad (1956) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We aren't whiffing on a pattern like that twice in a season. What makes this time different? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2023 Author Share Posted February 28, 2023 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: What makes this time different? I just spent like 3 hours the other day blogging about it. Check my outlook thread. Additionally, odds are always strongly against rolling snake eyes twice in one season in a pattern like that. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I just spend like 3 hours the other day blogging about it. Check my outlook thread. Additionally, odds are always strongly against rolling snake eyes twice in one season in a pattern like that. this is some absolutely ridiculous shit. as loaded is it gets, no exaggeration. that is telegraphing a KU verbatim 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 My question is did SSW have to do with this? The science doesnt seem strong yet it seems like it's happening. Seems like it was maybe , maybe ,maybe and now yes?. So is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmcginvt Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 also this air is so dry it's been snowing over my head for 2 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 54 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is some absolutely ridiculous shit. as loaded is it gets, no exaggeration. that is telegraphing a KU verbatim Have you seen the 0Z GEFS in week 2? It just about completely caved to the colder EPS! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2023 Author Share Posted February 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, GaWx said: Have you seen the 0Z GEFS in week 2? It just about completely caved to the colder EPS! Mid March will be wild.....this has been a glaring signal to me since I did my seasonal write up in latter October/early Novie. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2023 Author Share Posted February 28, 2023 55 minutes ago, dmcginvt said: My question is did SSW have to do with this? The science doesnt seem strong yet it seems like it's happening. Seems like it was maybe , maybe ,maybe and now yes?. So is it? It absolutely did. This event propagated downward, which is the smoking gun. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It absolutely did. This event propagated downward, which is the smoking gun. And now we have an even bigger plunge of the 10 mb strat winds at 60N to -19 m/s occurring now! The major SSW plunge to -13 m/s in mid Feb was impressive enough, but even it pales somewhat in comparison to what's happening now. So, this tells me that the SPV is very likely the weakest it has been during winter by a good margin since the great Feb of 2018 SSW. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 49 minutes ago, GaWx said: And now we have an even bigger plunge of the 10 mb strat winds at 60N to -19 m/s occurring now! The major SSW plunge to -13 m/s in mid Feb was impressive enough, but even it pales somewhat in comparison to what's happening now. So, this tells me that the SPV is very likely the weakest it has been during winter by a good margin since the great Feb of 2018 SSW. Ga keeps us updated on this as well. This very well could push full spring back until sometime in April. @40/70 Benchmark great stuff. Been keeping up with your stuff even from down in WNC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Childude645 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Mid March will be wild.....this has been a glaring signal to me since I did my seasonal write up in latter October/early Novie.Wet cold and or both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2023 Author Share Posted February 28, 2023 21 minutes ago, Childude645 said: Wet cold and or both? Both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 it’s also worth noting that the GEFS made a big step towards the EPS/GEPS with regards to the strength of the blocking and the orientation of the 50/50 ULL this is very encouraging, as it was a bit of a holdout yesterday at 12z. much more ENS agreement now 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2023 Author Share Posted February 28, 2023 DT has boarded the March train. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 28, 2023 Share Posted February 28, 2023 Thats some major cold 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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