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March 2023 Obs/Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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Massive differences with the handling of the PV and associated confluence. Until there is any idea on what this structure and evolution will be models/ensembles are utterly useless in terms of run-to-run solutions in terms of SLP and crap. They aren't going to tell us what we can't already decipher and that is a evolution like the Euro is higher storm potential and evolution like GFS is nada. Need to get consistency and clearer picture of the PV/confluence. 

image.png.ecdac0d1e2e5683caf3a0f698735fd4b.png

image.png.d611b8c22b9382e5dbfb444e1b5f5eaf.png

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Massive differences with the handling of the PV and associated confluence. Until there is any idea on what this structure and evolution will be models/ensembles are utterly useless in terms of run-to-run solutions in terms of SLP and crap. They aren't going to tell us what we can't already decipher and that is a evolution like the Euro is higher storm potential and evolution like GFS is nada. Need to get consistency and clearer picture of the PV/confluence. 

image.png.ecdac0d1e2e5683caf3a0f698735fd4b.png

image.png.d611b8c22b9382e5dbfb444e1b5f5eaf.png

The 00z EPS was decidedly less impressive.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The 00z EPS was decidedly less impressive.

Not sure why I have any semblance of excitement, but I guess if there is potential may as well root for it. But with baseball around the corner and playoff hockey/basketball just bring on the 60's and 70's. Close the book on winter...it's like a final chapter that just won't end.

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4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Not sure why I have any semblance of excitement, but I guess if there is potential may as well root for it. But with baseball around the corner and playoff hockey/basketball just bring on the 60's and 70's. Close the book on winter...it's like a final chapter that just won't end.

That one last week tapped me out...I won't touch this unless it really looks imminent, and to be perfectly honest, I am rooting against it. I feel like the most likely outcome would be another round of blogs that will celebrate other areas getting big snow, while I get crap.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I takes a special kind of season to exhaust me with how passionate I am for winter storms, but this year did it...rare breed. No shortage of smoke with just about zero fire.

But at least you had a semblance of winter, despite another lackluster year. It was non-existent here other than a few days here or there. 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

But at least you had a semblance of winter, despite another lackluster year. It was non-existent here other than a few days here or there. 

See, this is what irritates me....the "at least your suck beat my suck".  I always get bent over in the good seasons, and then I get all of the shitty toys that no one wants.  Maybe its me, but I would take next to nothing some seasons to hit it out of the park in some bigger years.

May have to move closer to the coast.                           

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

See, this is what irritates me....the "at least your suck beat my suck".  I always get bent over in the good seasons, and then I get all of the shitty toys that no one wants.  Maybe its me, but I would take next to nothing some seasons to hit it out of the park in some bigger years.

May have to move closer to the coast.                           

 

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup..he got 8” last week, I got .5”, so I’m not feeling too bad for him. I’d have traded places in a second. 

This is why I haven't sniffed a normal snowfall season in over half of a decade, yet I still have people slinging "at least"s at me....

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

See, this is what irritates me....the "at least your suck beat my suck".  I always get bent over in the good seasons, and then I get all of the shitty toys that no one wants.  Maybe its me, but I would take next to nothing some seasons to hit it out of the park in some bigger years.

May have to move closer to the coast.                           

Eh, it's some luck involved too. This year was terrible here. I'm due for more shit years too. Move to Hubbardston lol. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z EPS looks pretty decent. Guess we'll see what 12z brings. Still not all that compelling yet until we get another 24-36 hours closer.

That's what sparked my comment to Ray. Still tough to get excited when guidance is more off than on. 

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9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

This is why I haven't sniffed a normal snowfall season in over half of a decade, yet I still have people slinging "at least"s at me....

Lol..but it’s sucked everywhere….except for Dave and ineedsnow, and you were a lot less sucky than Scott and I and alot of us…And that’s a fact.  I wasn’t saying it to sling it at you, just saying I would have gladly taken your 8” last week.  Shit year for most…next year will be better lol. 

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol..but it’s sucked everywhere….except for Dave and ineedsnow, and you were a lot less sucky than Scott and I and alot of us…And that’s a fact.  I wasn’t saying it to sling it at you, just saying I would have gladly taken your 8” last week.  Shit year for most…next year will be better lol. 

But my point is for several years I have gotten boned in every decent season....the awful years, like this year and 2019-2020 are when I have done a little better. I mean, 'cmon.....show me a snowfall anomaly map for the last half decade, and it will illustrate my point perfectly. Goose egg right in ne MA.

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28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

See, this is what irritates me....the "at least your suck beat my suck".  I always get bent over in the good seasons, and then I get all of the shitty toys that no one wants.  Maybe its me, but I would take next to nothing some seasons to hit it out of the park in some bigger years.

May have to move closer to the coast.                           

Lower variability tends to go that way. Highs won’t be as high but lows won’t be as low.  Feel like SE MA has the highest variability of all of New England.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Lower variability tends to go that way. Highs won’t be as high but lows won’t be as low.  Feel like SE MA has the highest variability of all of New England.

BOS to PYM and out to 95 probably have the highest SD. 

 

But, we haven't had a winter this bad since 11/12. That's an impressive stretch. 19-20 kind of sucked, but not as bad as this winter or 11-12. Usually true stinkers come about every 5 years or so...give or take. 

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