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March 2023 Obs/Disco


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12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

here's to hoping the EPS is correct, because this is pretty much as good of a look you could have for a high-end storm

strong -EPO providing Arctic air, decaying west-based -NAO, stout semi-permanent 50/50, and a strong S/W ejecting out of the west and amplifying underneath the block

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1677456000-1678212000-1678471200-20.thumb.gif.3175bf6497db1f9a921d3323cdb069d6.gif

I like this mean because as those negative anomalies are saddling through the eastern continental mid latitudes there...the -NAO is actually in a state of pulling back.

That is whence those "higher end" events happen - but I'd also point out the obvious, that is true for any event.  They all succumb - but yeah...the big ticket items, counter to intuition, actually are fragile and require less negative obstruction to be realized.  

You know... truth be told, a lot of the smaller events that survive to offer entertainment during the unfortunate circumstance of compressed flow types, those are the residue of a big event - in other words, enough kinematics to actually breath through an elephant's ass. 

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Man... I'm glad I highlighted the cold offset potential to the CPC's general temperature outlook during this first two weeks of March, because this -EPO / cold loading look over the higher latitudes is just not conducive to their success ... particularly above the 40th ~ parallel.  This -EPO is not new in the teleconnector progs, either. I've seen it there for several days. There is also a -WPO --> AB phase of the N. Pacific total construct evolving D6- 14, which are both longer/lapsed time correlations to cold outbreaks over N/A in general...

It's like we're witnessing the demise of the La Nina circulation proxy right before our very modeled eyes.   'Just wish that had happened on Jan 1 and not Mar 1.  To their credit, they've been predicting a rather rapid loss of the La Nina during this late winter through spring, 2023... I guess if/when the onset of this other high latitude stuff, it's a subject for advancing research to figure out if that is causally related, but it should definitely assist in decoupling the basal flow mode. 

I'm not sure SSW really is part of this, btw, after spending more time evaluating what's happened up there over the past month...different discussion

Not sure what all this will mean as we are now entering into the solar donut stuffing machine times like Homer Simpson in hell.  Eventually ...the hemisphere in the models seems like they are unaware of that flux just yet ... 

 

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48 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I like this mean because as those negative anomalies are saddling through the eastern continental mid latitudes there...the -NAO is actually in a state of pulling back.

That is whence those "higher end" events happen - but I'd also point out the obvious, that is true for any event.  They all succumb - but yeah...the big ticket items, counter to intuition, actually are fragile and require less negative obstruction to be realized.  

You know... truth be told, a lot of the smaller events that survive to offer entertainment during the unfortunate circumstance of compressed flow types, those are the residue of a big event - in other words, enough kinematics to actually breath through an elephant's ass. 

Are those negative anomalies even legit or just more can kicking. GFS/CMC look warm for March 1-10

I'm hoping for an early spring so I can move past this miserable winter as soon as possible. 

What I would give for a 2012 March

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22 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Are those negative anomalies even legit or just more can kicking. GFS/CMC look warm for March 1-10

I'm hoping for an early spring so I can move past this miserable winter as soon as possible. 

What I would give for a 2012 March

Just run the ensembles on Tropical Tidbits daily.

You will see that it has always shown a deep RNA pumping the SER. This has not changed and has not been pushed back.

Like I posted every day, March 10th on the EPS and a couple days later on the GEFS.

The question has always been how cold and the duration.

 

 

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37 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Are those negative anomalies even legit or just more can kicking. GFS/CMC look warm for March 1-10

I'm hoping for an early spring so I can move past this miserable winter as soon as possible. 

What I would give for a 2012 March

His looping image starts on D 9 and runs out a 3 or so days... It's more about a specific period to watch for something- it may not characterize the whole 1-15 perod of time.

March is a fickle beast as we know... I mean, it could be +8 on average and still nest a blue nugget across the time range. 

As to the 1-10 per se... not sure the surface/lower troposphere N of ~ 40 N sees what those 500 mb isohypses anomaly products look like. 

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