George001 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Looking at the thermals there’s a warm layer at around 700mb but it’s colder closer to the surface. That warm layer gets pretty far north, above freezing into southern NH/VT. If the gfs has the right idea with this setup I wouldn’t want to be anywhere near the roads…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Massive difference between the GFS and GEM. GEM is a snow event for Virginia and NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, George001 said: Looking at the thermals there’s a warm layer at around 700mb but it’s colder closer to the surface. That warm layer gets pretty far north, above freezing into southern NH/VT. If the gfs has the right idea with this setup I wouldn’t want to be anywhere near the roads…. Thermal talk at D7 is useless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Thermal talk at D7 is useless. Forget about thermals, even the track at this point is useless. The models are all over the place with where it's going to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 just a massive signal for a storm of some sort on the 4th 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 38 minutes ago, dryslot said: Sleet bomb too but areas that stay snow would be crippling verbatim. That’s a monster. Interesting to see how Thursday evolves for here as well. GEM is amped, could be nothing, could be something. Fun times tracking ahead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Ukie on board with a cold coastal storm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 16 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Ukie on board with a cold coastal storm. Can you see beyond hour 144? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 17 minutes ago, jaf said: Can you see beyond hour 144? UK at 168, looks like a GEM/GFS split 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Here comes the euro for next weekend . Nothing like the gfs . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Here comes the euro for next weekend . Nothing like the gfs . Whiff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 Hopefully the EURO does just as well in this range as it did with the Tuesday event...but it will probably win the Friday deal because it sucks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hopefully the EURO does just as well in this range as it did with the Tuesday's event...but it will probably win the Fridsy deal because it sucks. further north and looked better to me compared to 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: further north and looked better to me compared to 0z I didn't check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 For the three of us who care, Euro and GEM want to make Thursday the bigger impact for here than Tuesday. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Euro did make a nice jump north for 3/4. Still whiffs us but not by much. A GFS/Euro compromise would be pretty sweet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro did make a nice jump north for 3/4. Still whiffs us but not by much. A GFS/Euro compromise would be pretty sweet. Of all systems to whiff, this doesn’t look like one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 The ensembles connect the SER to the NAO approximately the same time as the system is expected to occur. Wouldn't this lead to more of a GFS outcome? I don't want a rain event however trying to learn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Of all systems to whiff, this doesn’t look like one. I hear you, but look at Tuesday. Never underestimate fail potential in winter 2022-23. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 15 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The ensembles connect the SER to the NAO approximately the same time as the system is expected to occur. Wouldn't this lead to more of a GFS outcome? I don't want a rain event however trying to learn. None of the Ensemble runs do this on this run. You've been listening to qq_dooshmega and that other troll too much. Do your own work, you know where to find the information yourself! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 I agree this synoptic setup is not a ridge linking up…there’s a clear 50/50 signal in between the positive height anomalies. Here’s 144h right as the storm is gearing up to form..the SE ridge offshore (more like a WAR there) puts my suppression concerns lower on the list…so I agree with scooter that this doesn’t really look like a whiff storm. I’d be more worried about ptype 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Individuals 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Individuals Timing differences bc of map availability but we get an idea where the axis is. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 I'm in the p-type camp as well, Better chance of this hugging or a runner then a whiff IMHO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Of all systems to whiff, this doesn’t look like one. These GOM Miller A deals usually come N of modeling. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Should I start a thread? something like, “historic top 10 blizzard imminent” 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Should I start a thread? something like, “historic top 10 blizzard imminent” 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Should I start a thread? something like, “historic top 10 blizzard imminent”It's pretty much a lock at this point....just need to find tune amounts 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Just now, butterfish55 said: 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Should I start a thread? something like, “historic top 10 blizzard imminent” It's pretty much a lock at this point....just need to find tune amounts Agreed. Just a matter of 2 feet or 3 feet 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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