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March 2023 Obs/Disco


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8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Man has to be a great Bluebird day at Berkshire East. Closed last couple days, tons of untracked. Open today

webcam-4.jpg

That looks amazing. Sucks I’m Completely gonna miss this dump… Work and my Son’s 13th bday. Bummer

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22 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Is it a done deal that it won’t amplify? I mean we couldn’t even get agreement from any model 6 hrs before go time the other day. How do we know this will or won’t amplify at 6 days out? 

Even if it does amplify the high to the north leaves so it’s too warm. Winters over, just wasn’t our year. Massive trough camping out west all winter with record snows in California tells us all we need to know.

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

Ok no high and No amplification…same ol sane ol…which now is fine.  Just get us some sunny and mid 50’s with zero or light wind and that’s fine. 

Yeah I’m at the point where I’d rather have it be warm and sunny unless we get a massive early spring blizzard. Since that isn’t happening I’m rooting for it to get nice and toasty. I’d rather have 50s and sunny than 3-6 inches that just melts the next day.

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Checking on Kev, I know he missed out on big snows on Tuesday
 

#Tolland #PoliceActivity 62 Merrow Rd Electric Blue Café reports of multiple police vehicles on the location rep of CSP Major Crime Unit and Dept Homeland Security also 11:20a.m.

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Window is nearly closed though and any potential is likely going to be interior and elevations at this point. not a good sign seeing a poleward displaced jet extension from Asia across the north Pacific with wave breaking featuring trough after trough digging into the West with a pretty long wave length...going to need huge NAO/AO support to fit flexing ridge in the East...I mean we've had a string of -NAO in spring's the past few years and that looks to continue. But outside of high terrain and far interior...we probably done with anything meaningful in terms of accumulations.

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think there's a pretty good chance we end up with one more legit threat that gets inside 5 days based on what I'm seeing in the pattern. There's a couple of good windows late this month it looks like.

It's too bad we can't get 3/22 to amplify because there's some pretty good confluence ahead of it.

 

11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Window is nearly closed though and any potential is likely going to be interior and elevations at this point. not a good sign seeing a poleward displaced jet extension from Asia across the north Pacific with wave breaking featuring trough after trough digging into the West with a pretty long wave length...going to need huge NAO/AO support to fit flexing ridge in the East...I mean we've had a string of -NAO in spring's the past few years and that looks to continue. But outside of high terrain and far interior...we probably done with anything meaningful in terms of accumulations.

These are not the same….

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wild snow pack differences in my yard. front yard is sunny, and has less than 12".

way back yard (500' back) is a cold spot-no sun, ~50' lower elevation, a bit swampy in parts. snow is knee deep in spots. takes forever to melt back there.

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

 

These are not the same….

Will is far superior then me with this stuff, but I just don't see much of any potential outside of high terrain and northern New England. Sure the pattern can look "good" but there is one massive, key ingredient we're missing...cold. We were lucky enough to dynamically cool our way close to freezing this past storm in many borderline areas...we won't be that lucky in another few weeks. 

In order for there to be any, significant, meaningful threat outside of northern New England and the high terrain we need to first dump cold air into central/eastern Canada and then dump it here. All the cold air is all locked up. And anytime we've gotten major cold shots in happens on the backside of a strong front. 

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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Will is far superior then me with this stuff, but I just don't see much of any potential outside of high terrain and northern New England. Sure the pattern can look "good" but there is one massive, key ingredient we're missing...cold. We were lucky enough to dynamically cool our way close to freezing this past storm in many borderline areas...we won't be that lucky in another few weeks. 

In order for there to be any, significant, meaningful threat outside of northern New England and the high terrain we need to first dump cold air into central/eastern Canada and then dump it here. All the cold air is all locked up. And anytime we've gotten major cold shots in happens on the backside of a strong front. 

Well he’s talking in like 10 days..not a few weeks.
 

It’s ok to disagree Wiz, he thinks there’s a legit window, you don’t. Was just pointing out the differences between you both. 

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Well he’s talking in like 10 days..not a few weeks.
 

It’s ok to disagree Wiz, he thinks there’s a legit window, you don’t. Was just pointing out the differences between you both. 

At some point if you try and thread a needle 1,000 times you gotta find the hole, right :lol: 

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2 hours ago, George001 said:

Even if it does amplify the high to the north leaves so it’s too warm. Winters over, just wasn’t our year. Massive trough camping out west all winter with record snows in California tells us all we need to know.

Tells me I'm back in the 80s...except I've had a better year than several (many) of those.

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24 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Well, 45 partly sunny and the early spring cool/warm feel to the air today. The "pack" isn't going to survive this long. At this point lets melt it out and get a couple rainers to get the treatment off the roads. I'm in the mood to take the old Bug out for the first drive of the season

Good idea!

Moab Happenings Archive

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