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March 2023 Obs/Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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16 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

This was taken last night and since then I wouldn’t be surprised if we had about another eight or 9 inches according to my measurementsThis was taken last night and since then I wouldn’t be surprised if we had about another eight or 9 inches according to my measurements

 

15 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

According to my rough numbers about 74 inchesAccording to my rough numbers about 76”

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First 70F day of either Met or Julian calendar spring distinctions a week from Friday?  

The operational GFS switches from a possible cold Miller A to a look world's apart toward the end of next week.  

For warm and spring enthusiasts, it's really the first appeal we've seen since the record 'fake' warmth a month ago -

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

First 70F day of either Met or Julian calendar spring distinctions a week from Friday?  

The operational GFS switches from a possible cold Miller A to a look world's apart toward the end of next week.  

For warm and spring enthusiasts, it's really the first appeal we've seen since the record 'fake' warmth a month ago -

We’re transitioning from d10 phantom snowstorm season to d10 phantom warmth season. 

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1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

two highly anomalous, retrograding -NAOs and nearly nothing to show outside of interior CNE/NNE. I have never seen anything like it... this winter has been an exercise in futility

compday.PkYUHYuXC8.gif.ac8615199d39cdeb48d17bf407b2f5d9.gifcompday.OOmUpxHLGz.gif.7671a12e423f1e15b618e527d0413dec.gif

I thought the first ( back in Dec ) was more eastern limb ?   

Either way, this recent one was definitely retrograding, while waning. And fact of the matter is, we did have the moving parts in the deep layer mechanics come into line and climate. The N/stream tucked and subsumed a S/stream wave. Too many 20+" totals in the els to prove it. The devil was the BL lacked cold air and a baroclinic wall to provide a low level cyclogenic frame. Having antecedent sounding between BTV and ACK not appreciably differential prior to delivering those goodies... f'ed this thing up 10 ways from next Tuesday.  Just not for everyone - that's the tell. T

Which frankly... lacking cold is a part of a retrograde NAO that failed.  That is perhaps more the head scratch on this recent pass thru. 

So I guess based on that it doesn't matter. Lol... regardless of east or west or dogs or cats ... neither NAO correlated altogether very well.  

Boy the plague of lacking cold air. That is really what's been endemic to the whole season - and a circumstance that remained consistent right through both NAO episodes. They were unable to overcome that limitation with an inject.  The first of the two back in Dec, yeah...I can see that if indeed it was E biased.  There's more of a dice roll with those...  But the recent one? Wow what a major butt bang considering it was even proceeded by a -EPO in the process of relaying into a +PNAP.  

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47 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Today is a good test run for April. Cloudy and 42°. 

Pucker up friends. 

It really is just god-awful out there...  pal hints at sun at other times totally overcast, with rafter creaking wind gusts amid a nape caressing 39 F   ooh

Euro with a long duration snow crusher at the end of the run heh

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21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I thought the first ( back in Dec ) was more eastern limb ?   

Either way, this recent one was definitely retrograding, while waning. And fact of the matter is, we did have the moving parts in the deep layer mechanics come into line and climate. The N/stream tucked and subsumed a S/stream wave. Too many 20+" totals in the els to prove it. The devil was the BL lacked cold air and a baroclinic wall to provide a low level cyclogenic frame. Having antecedent sounding between BTV and ACK not appreciably differential prior to delivering those goodies... f'ed this thing up 10 ways from next Tuesday.  Just not for everyone - that's the tell. T

Which frankly... lacking cold is a part of a retrograde NAO that failed.  That is perhaps more the head scratch on this recent pass thru. 

So I guess based on that it doesn't matter. Lol... regardless of east or west or dogs or cats ... neither NAO correlated altogether very well.  

Boy the plague of lacking cold air. That is really what's been endemic to the whole season - and a circumstance that remained consistent right through both NAO episodes. They were unable to overcome that limitation and inject.  The first of the two back in Dec, yeah...I can see that if indeed it was E biased.  There's more of a dice roll with those...  But the recent one? Wow what a major butt bang considering it was even proceeded by a -EPO in the process of relaying into a +PNAP.  

yeah this is what really stumps me. there was a legit -EPO concomitant with the -NAO, so that should have provided cold air, but it didn't. what a weird year

we just didn't have the PV on our side of the globe when it mattered most... it was largely in Asia in December and so far in March. I don't think this level of ineffectualness will occur again though. give us another next winter in a Nino and I'm sure we'll get smoked

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1 hour ago, weathafella said:

I give you great credit for enthusiasm in the face of misery.

2.4 inches here is gone as of this moment outside of a few renegade clumps.  And I’m happy about that-back to sneakers for walking.

Jerry your fat lady ain't even dressed yet 

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1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah this is what really stumps me. there was a legit -EPO concomitant with the -NAO, so that should have provided cold air, but it didn't. what a weird year

we just didn't have the PV on our side of the globe when it mattered most... it was largely in Asia in December and so far in March. I don't think this level of ineffectualness will occur again though. give us another next winter in a Nino and I'm sure we'll get smoked

Wouldn't the record RNA have something to do with the lack of cold air?

I know CoastalWX stated before the NAO was pinning the PV to the SW. I am thinking if this is the case, then we would not have the usual cold air in place.

I have a feeling that if the RNA was not a strong and persistent (a normal RNA) we would have seen a typical response.

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15 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Further to the above, I do not subscribe to the notion that typical NAO responses will not work moving forward due to ocean temps and global warming.

Now, if someone has statistics that said that this never happened before......

 

It’s happened before…it’ll happen again, it’s just rare. Shit fortune is what it is..plain and simple. 

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1 hour ago, Heisy said:

That wave end of run was going to be a slow march roller, blocking is setup, that storm was in the midst of bombing. The 12z control is pure porno for New England and interior, wave after wave being forced just far enough under the block


.

God I hope not. Let it be done..nothing has produced despite the great looks. And no doubt, the pattern changed to something very conducive, but we couldn’t capitalize. Just so deflating and worthless. I’m not buying in this time…cuz there will be some nipple, or some double low robbing the energy from the one we need to be strong. Or there’s no high to the north…some crazy nuance that will destroy the thing, that can’t be seen at this stage…bet on it.  

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54 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

she's not gonna let us out lmao

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-9875200.thumb.png.e97a05896e68b1e448db64150572e7c3.png1680177600-ztt2j4xcerU.png.9a47479b9f3694aa3b819c6a5237e3ba.png

I've been in ditto mode my last three weekly outlooks ...  Until I see that garland look disintegrate, I really don't see us shifting. I mean we'll gain therms by weight of the rapidity of solar return as we cross the equinox and force-feed about a million thermal nuclear warhead's worth of additional energy per week but it's going to be a slow grind given that look

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1 hour ago, Heisy said:

That wave end of run was going to be a slow march roller, blocking is setup, that storm was in the midst of bombing. The 12z control is pure porno for New England and interior, wave after wave being forced just far enough under the block


.

It's like higher probability than climate for protracting a cold hemisphere deeper into spring, while at the same time that particular model run, at that range, has less chance of verifying than Forest Gump in a Mensa debate. 

This last thing was a thing of perfection that found a way to f* up for a lot of us. Fascinating really... We couldn't get the models to be consistent within themselves, let alone agreeing ... poor consensus at 12 hour leads?  That may be how/why that thing was "historic" right there...

This pattern did that?    This pattern won't allow any guidance to be right outside of blind luck that far out.  It's even worse that standard bun-dom

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