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March 2023 Obs/Disco


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A friend out in TRK had photos of the Auburn Ski Club building up on Donner Pass (right near the snow lab) from a few years ago where people were going in and out the third floor by the end of the season. Great photos on their linked Facebook. They build warming cabins on stilts and they're still drifting over (or as a friend says: "it's not a warming hut, it's a snow gauge"). They're up on I-80 so at the whims of the highway and it seems they've been closed more than open recently. They're talking of skiing until July 4.

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49 minutes ago, radarman said:

I've posted these before, but this was near Alpine Meadows late Jan 2017.  Squaw Valley reported 26 feet for the month.  The pack is probably bigger now amazingly.

IMG_20170126_2550.jpg.a957b7797ff6212f892292854e334ccd.jpgIMG_20170126_57700.jpg.65265cc31e3c6f29933ffbb1bf6931ab.jpg

I have no idea how they will so with 6 to 8 feet above 8k. Village is 8100

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Nothing campaigns spring like 504 dm hydrostats down to Pittsburgh PA on March 25th...

not sure, though, how much of this is just the GFS non-responsive to the seasonal forcing - I've sort of sensed this since the era of rapid version upgrades ...going back about 5 or 7 years.  I realize that's 384 hours so has 0 real value, but I'll be watching for the GFS' incompetence to sense the hemispheric changes and fighting it. 

Obfuscating matters ... I suspect that a general colder and stormier profile to the pattern may persist though to the 20th anyway.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_64.png

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8 minutes ago, bch2014 said:

Palisades base is at 6300ft and Alpine Meadows at 6900. Still should be a ton of snow though!

Palisades may change to rain at 6300 feet, though it probably won't last super long as snow levels drop again later Friday....Alpine may stay all snow as snow levels prob don't rise above 7k (or if they do, it's quite brief). Still looking at 4 to 8 feet of new snow there.

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4 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Wonder if this is some little bit of evidence for the seasonal delay theory for CC

There's no empirical evidence March is cooling (or warming less fast) than the other winter months. In fact, November has been one of the colder months in the last decade during the cold season. January had no warming trend here for like 5-6 decades, so we're probably regressing to the mean a bit....aka, we were "due" for a stretch of putrid/warm Januarys.

Tip and I have sometimes discussed that maybe there is a response on the extreme end of the spectrum for individual cold intrusions....more frequent snows in October and late April/early May than we've seen in the past, but they manifest themselves within the warmer climate background signal.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's no empirical evidence March is cooling (or warming less fast) than the other winter months. In fact, November has been one of the colder months in the last decade during the cold season. January had no warming trend here for like 5-6 decades, so we're probably regressing to the mean a bit....aka, we were "due" for a stretch of putrid/warm Januarys.

Tip and I have sometimes discussed that maybe there is a response on the extreme end of the spectrum for individual cold intrusions....more frequent snows in October and late April/early May than we've seen in the past, but they manifest themselves within the warmer climate background signal.

Ah, so greater intraseasonal variability can anecdotally mask itself as seasonal shift? I could understand that if SD for "severe weather index" increases alongside with mean temperature increases, the window in which significant winter events may occur will expand even if it's an evenly-distributed warming.

That said, I've read a few papers which predict that even in the next 50 years, N/S jet orientation is not predicted to move northward in spring, while it is for other seasons.

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GFS out to 3/28 has a high in BOS of 55 … which would give March a lower high temp than Dec, Jan or Feb.

Of course, the real outlier was 2020, when April had a high of 62, lower than any other month that year (or the preceding Nov or Dec).

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2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

How many more kicks to the balls do people need before they call it quits. 

Pack it up and embrace the warmer weather. Maybe we'll get some nice severe days and some tropical remnants over the summer. 

Maybe we had the same feeling in 1998 before the late March event....

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