March 2023 Obs/Disco

[The 4 Seasons]

Put those stats from yesterday into a graphic but the numbers are slightly different to match the climo for March 7th.

Snowfall to date compared to normal to date for Northeast select cities.

[ORH_wxman]

EPS says she's not gonna let us out.

[tunafish]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS says she's not gonna let us out.

How's the week of the 27th looking?

Asking for an observer abandoning his post 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, tunafish said:

How's the week of the 27th looking?

Asking for an observer abandoning his post 

Ensembles don't go out that far, but based on the end of the run, it still looks pretty blocky.

[DJln491]

2 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Put those stats from yesterday into a graphic but the numbers are slightly different to match the climo for March 7th.

Snowfall to date compared to normal to date for Northeast select cities.

Thanks for this!   NYC suffering the most having only received 9% of their average snowfall.  9%!

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

Thanks for this!   NYC suffering the most having only received 9% of their average snowfall.  9%!

Prob the worst I-95 NYC to DCA winter since 2001-02. BOS isn't doing much better, though they have already passed 2011-12...we'll see if they can muster up enough to get past 2019-20's putrid 15.9 inches.

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS says she's not gonna let us out.

I was wondering given how we've been focusing on Tuesday.  Oy, I'd like Tuesday, one more on Thurs-Fri, and then onto being able to plant my lettuce by mid April.  The snowpack is very sturdy right now.

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Prob the worst I-95 NYC to DCA winter since 2001-02. BOS isn't doing much better, though they have already passed 2011-12...we'll see if they can muster up enough to get past 2019-20's putrid 15.9 inches.

wouldn't it be funny if we got a DC-Portland KU and got all the I-95 cities to normal?  The weenies of 2053 would look at the data and be like "ah just an average winter."

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

wouldn't it be funny if we got a DC-Portland KU and got all the I-95 cities to normal?  The weenies of 2053 would look at the data and be like "ah just an average winter."

Lol…my secret hope has been to get like a 45” March just to screw with the seasonal numbers. But unlikely that happens now since we didn’t get hit hard enough on 3/4 and then whiffing on 3/11. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Prob the worst I-95 NYC to DCA winter since 2001-02. BOS isn't doing much better, though they have already passed 2011-12...we'll see if they can muster up enough to get past 2019-20's putrid 15.9 inches.

I think Boston is currently at its 4th worst?   That could be changing rapidly

[HoarfrostHubb]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lol…my secret hope has been to get like a 45” March just to screw with the seasonal numbers. But unlikely that happens now since we didn’t get hit hard enough on 3/4 and then whiffing on 3/11. 

Wasn't 1997 essentially like that? 

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Wasn't 1997 essentially like that? 

Yeah if you count both Mar/Apr 1997 it was around 45”. It kind of had a similar end of the season feel to it. The pattern got a lot better in March and we got some snow events but you always felt like you should’ve had a bigger one. Then when it seemed we had wasted the chance for more (there was a blown Winter storm warning on 3/23 I think) and everyone is moving into spring, the 3/31-4/1 storm happens. 

[Torch Tiger]

7 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Put those stats from yesterday into a graphic but the numbers are slightly different to match the climo for March 7th.

Snowfall to date compared to normal to date for Northeast select cities.

2.3" 

[WxWatcher007]

7 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Put those stats from yesterday into a graphic but the numbers are slightly different to match the climo for March 7th.

Snowfall to date compared to normal to date for Northeast select cities.

I can only look at that so long before feeling ill.

[tavwtby]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah if you count both Mar/Apr 1997 it was around 45”. It kind of had a similar end of the season feel to it. The pattern got a lot better in March and we got some snow events but you always felt like you should’ve had a bigger one. Then when it seemed we had wasted the chance for more (there was a blown Winter storm warning on 3/23 I think) and everyone is moving into spring, the 3/31-4/1 storm happens. 

yeah, what made 96-97 worse, until March anyway, was we were coming off a historic winter in 95-96, where it seemed we were getting 3-6/4-8 every three days or so, but I remember a good cold spell in 97, or am I mistaken?

[The 4 Seasons]

46 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

2.3" 

i know that gets you rock hard, but have a little sympathy for the rest of us..

[Torch Tiger]

14 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

i know that gets you rock hard, but have a little sympathy for the rest of us..

I've long moved onto epic CRV spring flooding.  thus, we need a very thicc and juicy NNE pack.  hoping for some QPF bombs up north!!

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, tavwtby said:

yeah, what made 96-97 worse, until March anyway, was we were coming off a historic winter in 95-96, where it seemed we were getting 3-6/4-8 every three days or so, but I remember a good cold spell in 97, or am I mistaken?

The winter was pretty much a torch but did have a good arctic spell from around New Year’s Eve into the first couple days of jan ‘97 and then another short arctic punch mid month. 

[powderfreak]

12 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

This is sick. They literally have no where to put it and Wow.

QPF: Precipitation totals are only continuing on their upward trend 
with newest guidance. Recent guidance suggests 6-8" of QPF along the 
Sierra crest, 3-5" in Sierra communities, 1-2" for far western 
Nevada communities, and 0.25-0.5" for the west-central Basin & Range.

SNOW LEVELS: And now to the lowest confidence factor in this 
storm... snow levels! There is high confidence that this storm will 
be warmer due to the strong jet providing warm, southwesterly flow 
from the subtropics. The current, most likely forecast still 
indicates snow levels rapidly increasing overnight to around 8000-
8500' at the onset of heaviest precipitation overnight Thursday. 
Snow levels look to remain high through late morning Friday, before 
a colder upper-level low swings by to our north and surges cooler 
southward through Friday afternoon. Snow levels will then hover 
between 6000-7000' through Saturday. With that said, there are a few 
caveats to this forecast due to the potential for a deep isothermal 
layer for a short period late Thursday into early Friday morning 
as indicated by model soundings. This could drop snow levels 
1000-2000' lower than forecast early in the event.

Sunday onward: 

After the weekend AR, the door remains open to additional warm, 
moisture-rich Pacific storms. Confidence continues to increase for 
another AR arriving as early as Monday, which could exacerbate snow 
load and flooding issues. Stay prepared and tuned to the forecast as 
more details come into focus on this next storm. -Whitlam
 

The Winter Storm Warning calling for 6 - 8 feet of snow up high is absolutely bonkers.

I can't stop looking at photos of the Lake Tahoe area south to Mammoth Lakes inhabited areas.  Like legit 10 - 20 feet on the ground, where people live, and another 3-6 feet on the way, with 6-8 feet at the upper elevations of the ski areas.

[dryslot]

Sugarloaf in the clouds today.

[Ginx snewx]

9 hours ago, powderfreak said:

The Winter Storm Warning calling for 6 - 8 feet of snow up high is absolutely bonkers.

I can't stop looking at photos of the Lake Tahoe area south to Mammoth Lakes inhabited areas.  Like legit 10 - 20 feet on the ground, where people live, and another 3-6 feet on the way, with 6-8 feet at the upper elevations of the ski areas.

I have been watching videos from a snowplow guy on my big screen. The amount of snow on some roofs is staggering.  I watched 6 foot men being dwarved as the shoveled it off. Dense hardback to boot. They are in big trouble if they get 6 to 8 feet.

[CoastalWx]

Those people below 7K may be in trouble with the rain. 

[SnoSki14]

16 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I have been watching videos from a snowplow guy on my big screen. The amount of snow on some roofs is staggering.  I watched 6 foot men being dwarved as the shoveled it off. Dense hardback to boot. They are in big trouble if they get 6 to 8 feet.

I didn't even know that much of a pack could exist. Always figured it would compact down to much less.

[ariof]

13 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

the 3/31-4/1 storm happens

Looking back at that; April 1 1997 reported 22.4" of snow on 0.65" of QPF and having shoveled that storm I'm guessing a lot of that snow didn't make it in the can because it was not, as I recall, 30:1 ratio snow.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, ariof said:

Looking back at that; April 1 1997 reported 22.4" of snow on 0.65" of QPF and having shoveled that storm I'm guessing a lot of that snow didn't make it in the can because it was not, as I recall, 30:1 ratio snow.

Yeah some of those early-era ASOS QPF numbers are awful.They've gotten a lot better but still not ideal.

[Ginx snewx]

41 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

I didn't even know that much of a pack could exist. Always figured it would compact down to much less.

Well when you have 500 inches 41 feet that hasn't melted much much you get 16 foot bases.

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Well when you have 500 inches 41 feet that hasn't melted much much you get 16 foot bases.

I personally saw near 20 feet OTG there back in Mar 1999. It's weird to experience...almost like you're in some weird fantasy land that isn't real. I'm sure it's the same feeling for people going into ice caves or scuba diving....different world from the normal reality we deal with. The 6-7 foot snow packs we will see on the slopes of new england are big, but they don't feel unreal like when you are walking around with snow canyons 3 times your height next to you which is what I was doing in March 1999.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I personally saw near 20 feet OTG there back in Mar 1999. It's weird to experience...almost like you're in some weird fantasy land that isn't real. I'm sure it's the same feeling for people going into ice caves or scuba diving....different world from the normal reality we deal with. The 6-7 foot snow packs we will see on the slopes of new england are big, but they don't feel unreal like when you are walking around with snow canyons 3 times your height next to you which is what I was doing in March 1999.

So cool did you save any pics 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

So cool did you save any pics 

Heh, there are old hard copy pics but likely in storage down in Texas with all my dad's stuff (he's living abroad at the moment). If I get a hold of them again I'll def scan them because they were pretty cool to look at.

Though these days, you can find similar all over social media with what's going on out there right now.

[Ginx snewx]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Heh, there are old hard copy pics but likely in storage down in Texas with all my dad's stuff (he's living abroad at the moment). If I get a hold of them again I'll def scan them because they were pretty cool to look at.

Though these days, you can find similar all over social media with what's going on out there right now.

Just want to see you in your Bruins jacket dwarved by 20 foot of snow. Wee Willy