dryslot Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I may even have a shot. Where are you at now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 I'm at 50% exactly (34.4"/68.7") and am bearish on getting >90%. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 I don't think so, if I were asked at this time and "mood" (admittedly) I dunno... the NAO is gone. Red Herring all along. It may return to those retro white dreams it was along those prior runs, now tossed upon the trash heap of modeled fantasies - a heap that is in my opinion far larger than any modeled NAO success stack. There were/are 2 primary factors driving this late winter, as we turn page into a early spring. - La Nina/-PNA persistent foot print - The happenstance of a cold loading event across the Canadian shield. That latter aspect is really the only thing protecting us from early 'warm bursts' ... perhaps similar to 2017, 2018 ... 2020..etc. Dice rolling on NAO by the physical results of model ( so to speak...) just very recently perhaps added to that, but thinking back on that modeling escapade... It was always perfect. Think about that. A perfect NAO requiring at D7-10 lead. Uuuusually doesn't end very well. I think whatever happens moving forward, don't count on assistance by the NAO. I was just looping the 10 days of the 12z deterministic Euro, and it really has very little NAO blocking sufficiently above neutral 500 mb anomalies to matter, W of Iceland, the whole way. That's hugely different than some of these charts just 4 or so days ago. ... anyway, I guess there is some small consolation in knowing that it can just as easily return and help force matters - the probability goes in both directions. But I hate to roll eyes ... the clock is ticking on this season, perhaps at a faster rate than normal years do to the most persistent and dependable of those two signals above: the ENSO/-PNA In fact, the D10 Euro is almost a warm burst. Not sure how this effects ( if any) the GFS Mar 4 idea. The 12z GEFs have so much weight in favor of a bigger event there ( not just the operational), that all this may be irrelevant for that event. That said, the GEFs 12z mean doesn't have much NAO moving west across the Basin any longer either ( thru D10). It tries beyond but this f'n thing is can-kicking big time. Just stop. We don't even need an NAO in a GEFs/operational GFS scenario. So I guess this afternoon op ed, in the spirit of commiseration ..., has two facets. The first being, the longer term signals are returning to a warm one for the month of March. Without the NAO, and the cold in Canada surely exhausting in time - have to monitor the EPO loading pattern for the first couple of weeks of the month - not sure how there can arouse any other impression. The second aspect regards yet another lesson in overrated NAO. I mean it plays a role and can be a modulator, but it's really still just the Pacific ( transitive wave mechanics - been trying to explain this lately but who wants to think in an environment of fantasy and escape lol) and fact of the matter is, we can do fine without it. We just don't have the footprint hemisphere to do so this go of it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2023 Author Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 hour ago, dryslot said: Where are you at now? 25.5". I need about 35". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 The March 4th storm came in rainy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Just now, EastonSN+ said: The March 4th storm came in rainy. Who cares it's the worst model in verification rates Onto 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 18z gfs going weenie wild again for mass . 3’rd -4’th is a long biggie I mean that gradient in Ct is insane 30” mass thru hr 190 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 GFS being amped for the 28th & 3/4th system while the Euro is the opposite is unusual. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Who cares it's the worst model in verification rates Onto 0z I am still thinking our time will come around the 10th and after. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 I'll take this at 8 days out. very dynamic solution with hints of confluence and there's cold air around 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I'll take this at 8 days out. very dynamic solution with hints of confluence and there's cold air around Lakes cutter on gefs LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Looks like a snowy week for a lot of SNE, CNE, and NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BombsAway1288 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 How does the result of the 28th system impact the 4th, if any? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said: Looks like a snowy week for a lot of SNE, CNE, and NNE. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 hours ago, NorEastermass128 said: Looks like a snowy week for a lot of SNE, CNE, and NNE. Yeah not unlike late August into September, when everyone wants cool shots and it's like 73/72 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Lakes cutter on gefs LOL Yeah, that looks like a really good track for Chicago, it bombs about 50-100 miles SE of there on the mean. The range of solutions is pretty much a 940mb low in Wisconsin to a disorganized and strung out low off the Carolinas. Sometimes the models will catch on to a general threat area at about day 7-8 and lock in, others the models are still all over the place at day 3. This pattern is definitely the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Models have had an active STJ for the timeperiod.. looks nice if it holds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 March 2012? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: March 2012? No change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 This is looking more and more like March 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Looks like the new GFS is a little weaker aloft but still provides dense QPF for the 4th … which may end up being the third. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Looks like the new GFS is a little weaker aloft but still provides dense QPF 8 days out….if it shows sense qpf on Thursday next week, we’ll all be happy if it tracks underneath us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaf Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 0z CMC is way out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2023 Author Share Posted February 25, 2023 9 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said: I'll take this at 8 days out. very dynamic solution with hints of confluence and there's cold air around That's the problem...we've been taking it at 8-10 days out all season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That's the problem...we've been taking it at 8-10 days out all season. Absolutely. It’s the tenor of the season. But now it’s 7 days out, maybe that’s a better sign? Too far away for any meaningful predictions anyway. Only that a storm is a possibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 Well, let’s hope we get some more snow chances because for a two weeks of March definitely don’t look warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 That's a beast on the 12z GFS 974mb on the 4th. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 15 minutes ago, dryslot said: That's a beast on the 12z GFS 974mb on the 4th. Tons of qpf need it a little colder around here but that's almost a big icestorm here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 25, 2023 Share Posted February 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Tons of qpf need it a little colder around here but that's almost a big icestorm here Sleet bomb too but areas that stay snow would be crippling verbatim. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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