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March 2023 Obs/Disco


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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

You realize he Wants this response and emotion . I mean I get it but ya know ..

 

I think the threat is completely on the table for next week and I really hope we get a break that most of the region can enjoy . The funny thing is there is rarely a region wide hit from SW CT to NNE 

I get that completely…but had to say my piece. 

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I respect that 

I think it’s good to actually have a pattern that at least serves up potential for everyone including CT, just see how the brakes go 

Agreed 100% Pickles. Can’t control the brakes/nuances.  Be nice to get a few nuances/brakes to go our way for once this winter…you’d think the odds would be with us at this point after all the suckage.

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30 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Runnaway just showed you exactly what you do By posting the exact opposite of what you showed, from a different model, initialized at the same time.  So how come you didn’t show them both? And then discuss the differences?  
 

That’s because you’re a complete TROLL!  And if you weren’t, and we’re serious about talking about the weather/pattern /potential, you would have posted both. You’re a complete and utter JOKE. Pathetic. 

Man, seeing the other side of it really puts it into perspective how obnoxious I was when I was calling for blizzards really far out. It’s best to just keep an open mind to a wide range of outcomes at this stage.

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1 minute ago, George001 said:

Man, seeing the other side of it really puts it into perspective how obnoxious I was when I was calling for blizzards really far out. It’s best to just keep an open mind to a wide range of outcomes this far out.

Now that’s a good post George.  :thumbsup:

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8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Agreed 100% Pickles. Can’t control the brakes/nuances.  Be nice to get a few nuances/brakes to go our way for once this winter…you’d think the odds would be with us at this point after all the suckage.

I mean I think the odds didn’t work out due to the crazy Depth and persistence of the SW trough , some call that bad luck , I would say we may have learned that was actually a bad pattern for those not just NYC south but those  with less latitude in SNE , with the exception that mid to late  December was more bad luck ...

but I think we are actually seeing enough of a pattern change do to “whatever” Reasons ..nina fading ..SSW propagating ..wave lengths changing (I dunno) and that is the most likely reason we may get some brakes 

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

Now that’s a good post George.  :thumbsup:

That’s the goal, while being a weenie is fun sometimes constant wishcasting doesn’t really contribute to the discussion. Nobody wants to hear “blizzard incoming” and get a few inches of slush a couple days later. I’m starting to find that it’s more enjoyable to track when I’m actually being realistic and objective. Just because a couple runs of the gfs had a Miller B with 12+ inches of snow and no mixing whatsoever for my area doesn’t mean it’s time to start calling for a blizzard. A lack of high pressure to the north and east or southeast winds ripping over us at the height of the storm doesn’t exactly scream big snow, regardless of what the clown maps say. 

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Runnaway just showed you exactly what you do By posting the exact opposite of what you showed, from a different model, initialized at the same time.  So how come you didn’t show them both? And then discuss the differences?  
 

That’s because you’re a complete TROLL!  And if you weren’t, and we’re serious about talking about the weather/pattern /potential, you would have posted both. You’re a complete and utter JOKE. Pathetic. 

put him on ignore like I did. it’s glorious 

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Gosh, it really sneaks up on you.   I mean, yeah...the calendar says March 4, but I was just scanning machine numbers for tomorrow and it struck me that climate is now mid 40s.   It's sort of over and we're really getting lucky looking at this pattern we are - ironically considering...

We're likely to have to deal with some winter threats over the coming week(s) but in the meantime... if we can clear out better than the models tomorrow, MOS has light winds while nearing 50 in the interior lower els.  Under Mar 5 sun that'd be a real nape day.  The ceilings break, but not until like 4pm and that's too later in equivalent October 8 sun ( altho I hate this comparison.. why do we feel the need to compare Mar 5 sun to October 8 sun?  Just call it Mar 5 sun) but it's close, and with some d-slope trajectories on-going.  egh...it'll probably self-destruct

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3 hours ago, George001 said:

That’s the goal, while being a weenie is fun sometimes constant wishcasting doesn’t really contribute to the discussion. Nobody wants to hear “blizzard incoming” and get a few inches of slush a couple days later. I’m starting to find that it’s more enjoyable to track when I’m actually being realistic and objective. Just because a couple runs of the gfs had a Miller B with 12+ inches of snow and no mixing whatsoever for my area doesn’t mean it’s time to start calling for a blizzard. A lack of high pressure to the north and east or southeast winds ripping over us at the height of the storm doesn’t exactly scream big snow, regardless of what the clown maps say. 

What did you do with George?

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Great run it’s been, and maybe it continues. Somewhere just north of 9 inches today. Probably had 10 or 11 fall but it was really compressing because it was fairly wet and heavy with high temperatures. Wanted to get a real handle on the snow pack so I took my ski pole that I could really slam into the ground and get through all the layers. Basically 15 to 20 in the fields with the higher amounts in the areas a good lesson. 20 to 24 or maybe 25 and some spots in the woods this is not a quick to evaporate pack at least in the woods. It’s not crunchy but it’s pretty dense and thick. The fields will at least partially melt out over the next few days. I would think, but the woods probably won’t lose too much. Then we’ll see what we might be able to stack on it next weekend. This is really a great place to live. I have to say. 

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5 hours ago, George001 said:

That’s the goal, while being a weenie is fun sometimes constant wishcasting doesn’t really contribute to the discussion. Nobody wants to hear “blizzard incoming” and get a few inches of slush a couple days later. I’m starting to find that it’s more enjoyable to track when I’m actually being realistic and objective. Just because a couple runs of the gfs had a Miller B with 12+ inches of snow and no mixing whatsoever for my area doesn’t mean it’s time to start calling for a blizzard. A lack of high pressure to the north and east or southeast winds ripping over us at the height of the storm doesn’t exactly scream big snow, regardless of what the clown maps say. 

Heeeey. Now there’s a sensible post. Glad to see you’ve changed your tune. That’s all I/everyone else asked. Good stuff

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think I’m the only one that thinks that has a chance to drop a few inches 

It’s possible but a needle threader. Could easily be crunched south or end up too warm like the 18z NAM. 

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Ensembles seem to be keeping some higher heights SW of Greenland now in the 12-16 day range. Maybe too aggressive at removing that -NAO? Just something to watch as we move further into March. I only need 8-10 inches to surpass 2019/20 season totals. Still can't remember that season being so terrible down here....

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