Torch Tiger Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 7 minutes ago, kdxken said: Yeah, screw snow more days like today please. Gorgeous day in Trashua NH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: I don't like this one. Shortwave out west is generated with a bad pacific, and cold coming in behind it; at the same time on its treck east, the -NAO is ebbing. I haven't really looked yet, aside from social media orgies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Gorgeous day in Trashua NH HEY! WTF! 45F... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I don't like this one. Shortwave out west is generated with a bad pacific, and cold coming in behind it; at the same time on its treck east, the -NAO is ebbing. Good calls with the last couple events. I hope you're wrong but this winter has shat the bed in every way possible so why wouldn't it do so again. Thank God spring is almost here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Mass folks need to call Lock It on the 12Z GFS before the next model run comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 18 minutes ago, kdxken said: Yeah, screw snow more days like today please. Another BL Ken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 59 minutes ago, MJO812 said: SNE will be back to normal after this month Need another 30-50” in some spots not happening james Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Yeah ...I know. That clipper next Tuesday has been gaining identity in the GFS every run going back some 7 cycles. 'That's what we call a trend, class' I don't like the QPF loading with a NW-SE moving S/W that doesn't/didn't have access to a PWAT inject prior to arriving here. But... I remember a 'little critter' like that ... in February of 03 that shocked the shit outta NWS and sent them scrambling to get a Warning out down the east end of the Pike when 10" , on a west wind no less, laid down over a white home page on their web address while it was happening .. heh. Come to think of it, that's might actually be the greatest positive bust ever, because it went from "0" to 10" ... We can't be tossing these things like they don't count. And we may also just be in a small 3 week window of, 'if it can happen it does' results. Go figure! we'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 25 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I don't like this one. Shortwave out west is generated with a bad pacific, and cold coming in behind it; at the same time on its treck east, the -NAO is ebbing. the ebbing -NAO is often the driver for some of the most prolific storms in NE US history 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I would keep expectations very low if you live south of C/NNE. Right now CMC/GFS/Euro all have inland runners for the next big storm. The Canadian does run the low inland, but it still snows east of the low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the ebbing -NAO is often the driver for some of the most prolific storms in NE US history Lots of seasonal scar tissue is evident....just need to allow the injuries to heal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 GEFS mean track and snow axis looks good at this range.. To me this means there is just as good a chance for a coastal as there is for an inland runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Lots of seasonal scar tissue is evident....just need to allow the injuries to heal. Been ribbing the forum for a couple of days on this aspect ...agreed. Hyper vigilance to detect reasons to poo-poo is about as useless as calling every cumulus cloud on the charts a 10 ten blizzard, though. Okay, so maybe the latter is worse...but still - it ain't helpin' 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Clown map of all clown maps: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, klw said: Clown map of all clown maps: Meh .. There's always one better.. We've had clown maps with 60-80" over the entire Northeast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Been ribbing the forum for a couple of days on this aspect ...agreed. Hyper vigilance to detect reasons to poo-poo is about as useless as calling every cumulus cloud on the charts a 10 ten blizzard, though. Okay, so maybe the latter is worse...but still - it ain't helpin' I don't view this as a cutter pattern. While I would never advise anyone to venture to view the world through Geroge's bifocals, I would recommend one approach this period with a mind wide open to some exotic potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 35 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Another BL Ken? You bet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't view this as a cutter pattern. While I would never advise anyone to venture to view the world through Geroge's bifocals, I would recommend one approach this period with a mind wide open to some exotic potential. btw, I create a thread for that focus... just letting people know its there. It'll probably be back seat until the afterglow (or jilted rage...), fades off Saturday night but it's there nonetheless.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: btw, I create a thread for that focus... just letting people know its there. It'll probably be back seat until the afterglow (or jilted rage...), fades off Saturday night but it's there nonetheless.. Yea, I read it....great thread. I love that you highlighted the difference between the numerical (fraudulent) PNA we had in January, and the synoptic one that looks to become established this month, which actually....you know...pops a ridge in the west. If there were ever a smoking gun for betting against seasonal persistence, that single factor empties the chamber in my mind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Definitely big boy potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 15 minutes ago, klw said: Clown map of all clown maps: Child’s play. We had one a few days ago that had like 70 inches over NE Ma. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I read it....great thread. I love that you highlighted the difference between the numerical (fraudulent) PNA we had in January, and the synoptic one that looks to become established this month, which actually....you know...pops a ridge in the west. If there were ever a smoking gun for betting against seasonal persistence, that single factor empties the chamber in my mind. BTW, this is why some folks responded to me with confused emoji's and cross-eyed looks when I said that January averaged a +PNA....it did, but it was useless because the ridge was off of the west coast, but its still calculated to a +PNA because a John said, the domain space is immense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 32 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the ebbing -NAO is often the driver for some of the most prolific storms in NE US history Man. When I look at history I don't take the sample size of ALL historical records. Narrow it down to similars. This year we have NOT had an issue with too much confluence; in such a season I'd absolutely agree. An ebbing -NAO with a raging pacific is problematic. Not my opinion; the snow totals this season reflect that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Man. When I look at history I don't take the sample size of ALL historical records. Narrow it down to similars. This year we have NOT had an issue with too much confluence; in such a season I'd absolutely agree. An ebbing -NAO with a raging pacific is problematic. Not my opinion; the snow totals ytd reflect that. I don't think the atmosphere in March gives a rat's ass, though. MJO never hit phase 8 all season. This month it will and at break neck amplitude, mind you....at the same time, la nina is fading. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 21 minutes ago, klw said: Clown map of all clown maps: .9 inches here? Seems accurate to me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think the atmosphere in March gives a rat's ass, though. Additionally the Pacific actually looks decent for once. A neutral to slightly negative PNA is pretty ideal for March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think the atmosphere in March gives a rat's ass, though. Big changes in that regard from March 1st to 31st. So i'd hedge that statement, accordingly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Additionally the Pacific actually looks decent for once. A neutral to slightly negative PNA is pretty ideal for March. The pacific improves, mid month. I'm talking specifically about the day 5 shortwave. I'm going to move over to Tip's thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 3, 2023 Author Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: Big changes in that regard from March 1st to 31st. So i'd hedge that statement, accordingly. The synoptic apex of said pattern appears to be the second week of the month and snowfall climo does not decline markedly for SNE until beyond mid month. Not sure the relevance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 3, 2023 Share Posted March 3, 2023 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Good calls with the last couple events. I hope you're wrong but this winter has shat the bed in every way possible so why wouldn't it do so again. Thank God spring is almost here Thank you for noticing and commenting. Most on here only let you know when you sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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