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March 2023 Obs/Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS is absurd for next weekend 

there's pretty much everything here for a major storm

  • vigorous S/W digging over the Plains
  • decaying -NAO over north central Canada
  • highly anomalous 50/50 ULL
  • ridging building upstream

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-8449600.thumb.png.66ef5c355a3e1499511551a70b7443c4.png

can we just go out with a bang and bring on spring? Seems like the NAO goes poof afterwards...

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1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

can we just go out with a bang and bring on spring? Seems like the NAO goes poof afterwards...

the bang usually occurs when the -NAO decays. that's why this signal is so compelling

I do think that the models are overdoing just how fast the NAO decays, though. we should see some semblance of it for much of the month, but this is the main event

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2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the bang usually occurs when the -NAO decays. that's why this signal is so compelling

I do think that the models are overdoing just how fast the NAO decays, though. we should see some semblance of it for much of the month, but this is the main event

There is definitely cold air left over, what seems to be over most of North America, but not bitterly cold either. There doesn't really seem to be a reload mechanism either, especially after the equinox. So fingers crossed we roll right into Spring by the end of the month

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40 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS is absurd for next weekend 

there's pretty much everything here for a major storm

  • vigorous S/W digging over the Plains
  • decaying -NAO over north central Canada
  • highly anomalous 50/50 ULL
  • ridging building upstream

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-8449600.thumb.png.66ef5c355a3e1499511551a70b7443c4.png

Wow...hang that in Louvre! I get goosebumps just looking at that prog.

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6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You know damn well that even when a blizzard pops on the OP runs, which they will, you will weenie tag people for mentioning it lol. General pattern is NOT zzzz you are delusional. Could we get unlucky again...sure.

looks like the GEFS is finally caving towards the EPS/GEPS with its handling of the WC S/W

it now has a legitimate storm signal with multiple <980 SLPs that are suppressed. this is the ideal spot for the GEFS to be IMO. strong and suppressed. this is the first run that has had anything close to this kind of coastal signal

ezgif-1-36bb141c15.gif.ec1c37e969d5790c5da0667bdddbb4d2.thumb.gif.08b49f2ab44a91828988709a0481b7b4.gifgfs-ensemble-all-avg-conus-mslp_with_low_locs-1677780000-1678460400-1678568400-40.thumb.gif.665c36a723deca49886891a353b8b3f5.gif

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14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You know damn well that even when a blizzard pops on the OP runs, which they will, you will weenie tag people for mentioning it lol. General pattern is NOT zzzz you are delusional. Could we get unlucky again...sure.

Just give me one coastal storm and none of this cutter/swfe nonsense 

Would be nice not having to worry about precip type 

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11 hours ago, klw said:

Wow what an awful commute this morning!  We started snowing about an inch per hour at home about 5:30am.  I left the house at 6:30 and had 1.2 new in that time but was in a slight lull.  From getting on I-89 at Exit 2 (mm 13) to exit 5 (mm 41 or so) it was snowing at least 1 inch per hour.  At one point north of Randolph visibility was down to about 1/20 of a mile.  After exit 5 it lightened almost immediately with almost no snow at all.

There were multiple cars off the road as well

 

I measured 3.0 new when I got home this evening. So 4.2 for the day.  I wonder how much it was before compacting the las 8 hours.

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55 minutes ago, klw said:

I measured 3.0 new when I got home this evening. So 4.2 for the day.  I wonder how much it was before compacting the las 8 hours.

We had a half inch last night and nothing more until this afternoon and evening snow showers have left about an inch, missed all of the meaty stuff to the SE.  The mountain looks like it probably got 3-4” this evening though a few miles away with the CAA portion.

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7 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the bang usually occurs when the -NAO decays. that's why this signal is so compelling

I do think that the models are overdoing just how fast the NAO decays, though. we should see some semblance of it for much of the month, but this is the main event

The NAO fades as a new -EPO formulates.  That temporal relay et al is pretty good indication that a blocking hemispheric mode is still in place. 

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