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March 2023 Obs/Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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4 minutes ago, FXWX said:

The arctic charge into the Gulf states was about as extreme as I have ever seen!  People forget the vicious severe weather event that ripped across Florida!  

There was also about a 10-12 foot storm surge in the FL Panhandle on the east side of that low. That’s almost unheard of for a non tropical cyclone. 

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2 hours ago, TalcottWx said:

From: Michael Rawlins <[email protected]>

Sent: Wednesday, March 1, 2023 1:32 PM

Subject: Top 5 Warmest Winter Across Southern New England

 

 

 

Top 5 Warmest Winter Across Southern New England

 

Winter averaged above freezing at the long-term sites, and freezing days are becoming rarer

 

Climate System Research Center

University of Massachusetts, Amherst

March 1, 2023

 

Winter (Dec-Feb) average temperature at long-term climate sites in southern New England were much warmer than normal, ranking in the top 5 warmest on record at four regional sites. Winter was warmest over the respective period of record at Worcester, third warmest at Amherst, fourth warmest at Hartford, and fifth warmest at Boston.

 

At each site, winter 2022-2023 averaged above freezing. The four warmest winters at each location have now averaged above freezing, and have all occurred since 2000.

 

Few winter days averaged below freezing. Hartford had just 23 such days, tied with 2011-2012 for fewest on record. Boston had 19 below-freezing days, tied for second fewest on record. Worcester’s 38 freezing days ranks third fewest there.

 

 

Mildest DJM here, only 25 years POR and just 0.2° above 15-16.  March 16 was +3 so if this month is +2 or cooler the DJFM (the snow months) record stays with 15-16.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There was also about a 10-12 foot storm surge in the FL Panhandle on the east side of that low. That’s almost unheard of for a non tropical cyclone. 

Yes... several tornado deaths across central FL I believe... Had a friend staying on Marco Island and the squall line passage was worse than any tropical system he had lived through at that time.  A plot of the sfc temps across the Deep South during the develop of the Gulf low is freaking stunning.   A truly bitter cold air mass that had been coming south out of west-central Canada ended up in LA 2 days later.

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1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is nearly perfect. the EPS is holding serve on a legitimate KU evolution for next weekend

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1677672000-1678190400-1678492800-40-1.thumb.gif.b43bee60710b7bef75585e77302e73aa.gif

We’re not trying to make a s/w fart perfectly there so while negative folks will make fun of looks good at D10 and post meme’s. You keep grinding man.
 

We can’t have the big upside without classic upper air features so here we go…

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1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

A technical question for a pro...just for personal knowledge - how long does it take for a snowflake passing through a +0 layer to turn into a sleet pellet?  For instance, on this sounding, is that enough time above 0 to melt the flake?image.thumb.png.0be3cd52a73d222a1d81b3c9846cf5ac.png

The general consensus is around 400-500m. It can depend on rates though too and also what the peak temperature in that layer is. A 500m layer of 0.5C temps might not be enough but if the temp is getting to 1.5C in that layer, then it would be enough. 
 

That’s a pretty thin layer there but its def greater than 500m so it would be a sleet sounding. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The general consensus is around 400-500m. It can depend on rates though too and also what the peak temperature in that layer is. A 500m layer of 0.5C temps might not be enough but if the temp is getting to 1.5C in that layer, then it would be enough. 
 

That’s a pretty thin layer there but its def greater than 500m so it would be a sleet sounding. 

Thank you!

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BTV climate piece sums up winter:

&&

.CLIMATE... The meteorological winter (December to February) has come to a close. Preliminary average temperature data indicates it was the 3rd warmest winter on record in Burlington with a value of 29.0 degrees, behind the 2016-2017 and 2015-2016 seasons. Snowfall was 46.9"; among the last 20 seasons, this is the 4th lowest total, inching ahead of 2005-2006, and well ahead of 2015-2016 and 2011-2012.

&&

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