40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Obviously everyone has seen the uptick is modeling cinema to begin the month of March....most notably the EURO and ICON, which jive with my thoughts from November. Lets see how this holds up.... March 2023 Outlook March Analogs: 1956, 1962, 1965, 1971, 1975,1981,1984, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2013, 2018 Obviously confidence at this range is modest at best, but if there is to be another major disruption of the polar vortex and a return to high latitude blocking, it will be this month. And while a SSW warming event is unlikely, if there is one to occur it will be from latter February into March and it will be a race against the ascending sun angle for winter enthusiasts to reap the benefits. Historically speaking, blocking during the month of March during a W QBO/cool ENSO season is unlikely, but if it does indeed come to fruition, than the mid Atlantic could potentially receive more in the way of significant snowfall. W QBO/Cool ENSO FM H5 But one factor working in favor of a return of high latitude blocking is that la nina should be just about dissipated by this point, thus the March 2023 forecast composite implies that it is possible: If there is to be a second window for major winter storm development, it would be between March 1 to 15th.This is, again, a low confidence venture, and winter should end in relatively unremarkable manner should it fail to come to fruition. March 2023 Forecast Temp Anomalies: 1951-2010: 1991-2020: March 2023 Forecast Precip Anomalies: 1951-2010: 1991-2020: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2023 Author Share Posted February 22, 2023 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 22, 2023 Author Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Obviously everyone has seen the uptick is modeling cinema to begin the month of March....most notably the EURO and ICON, which jive with my thoughts from November. Lets see how this holds up.... March 2023 Outlook March Analogs: 1956, 1962, 1965, 1971, 1975,1981,1984, 1996, 2001, 2006, 2013, 2018 Obviously confidence at this range is modest at best, but if there is to be another major disruption of the polar vortex and a return to high latitude blocking, it will be this month. And while a SSW warming event is unlikely, if there is one to occur it will be from latter February into March and it will be a race against the ascending sun angle for winter enthusiasts to reap the benefits. Historically speaking, blocking during the month of March during a W QBO/cool ENSO season is unlikely, but if it does indeed come to fruition, than the mid Atlantic could potentially receive more in the way of significant snowfall. W QBO/Cool ENSO FM H5 But one factor working in favor of a return of high latitude blocking is that la nina should be just about dissipated by this point, thus the March 2023 forecast composite implies that it is possible: If there is to be a second window for major winter storm development, it would be between March 1 to 15th.This is, again, a low confidence venture, and winter should end in relatively unremarkable manner should it fail to come to fruition. March 2023 Forecast Temp Anomalies: 1951-2010: 1991-2020: March 2023 Forecast Precip Anomalies: 1951-2010: 1991-2020: I don't like the ridging over the southwest in that composite, but otherwise, I think it looks doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Bring the pain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Behind Feb 28th- March 1st Miller B there is another huge storm behind it on the models. It is cutting right now yes, but I am noticing a strengthening signal for secondary redevelopment. The crazy thing is, as strong as the late Feb/Early March storm looks to be, the one right behind it looks just as big if not bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12WX Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 What an absolute bomb on the Euro for March 4. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 3 hours ago, Chris12WX said: What an absolute bomb on the Euro for March 4. good severe setup D8-9 for the south 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris12WX Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 9 hours ago, Chris12WX said: What an absolute bomb on the Euro for March 4. Surface temperatures verbatim are too warm for snow anywhere in eastern half of continental US for this beast on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 5 minutes ago, Chris12WX said: Surface temperatures verbatim are too warm for snow anywhere in eastern half of continental US for this beast on the Euro. The Euro suite is definitely ugly for 3/4 all of the sudden. Very strong cutter signal on the EPS…other guidance isn’t as bad but I didn’t love the 12z look today overall. Hopefully it trends back in the next few cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The Euro suite is definitely ugly for 3/4 all of the sudden. Very strong cutter signal on the EPS…other guidance isn’t as bad but I didn’t love the 12z look today overall. Hopefully it trends back in the next few cycles. Buffalo part 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 March 4th threat looks interesting on gfs and Canadian. I didn’t like what I saw from the Euro and EPS for that one at 12z, but it’s a good start to the 0z suite for that threat. Even though we had a couple bad Euro cycles for that one I still like that potential. It is very possible we get hit by both the 28th-1st and 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2023 Author Share Posted February 24, 2023 15 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: The Euro suite is definitely ugly for 3/4 all of the sudden. Very strong cutter signal on the EPS…other guidance isn’t as bad but I didn’t love the 12z look today overall. Hopefully it trends back in the next few cycles. Hopefully one of those later events pan out because it would seriously blow to come out of this with one moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hopefully one of those later events pan out because it would seriously blow to come out of this with one moderate event. 3/2-3/4 period doesn't look as ugly as yesterday did on EPS. There will be a chance in there I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Quite the slobberknocker on the GFS for 3/3-3/4! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 1 minute ago, WeatherX said: Quite the slobberknocker on the GFS for 3/3-3/4! Indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 ENS are much improved overall for the 3/4 threat. lower heights over the E US seems to be the theme 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: ENS are much improved by overall for the 3/4 threat. lower heights over the E US seems to be the theme 00z --> 06z may have started that trend from this particular tool. Offering a little cross-guidance ... unfortunately offers less support, as the EPS seems to be caught between that sneaky Mar 2nd system and this one above... perhaps some noise induced wave destruction 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Jesus what a QPF monster that Mar 4 event is on this 12z "deterministic" ( heh we hope!) GFS solution is. Looks like 2.5" of sleet followed by 18" of snow from Steve to Ray 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 George, Here are some suggested tags for your upcoming thread: Death Famine Destruction The End of Days 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 If the EPS comes around on this Mar 4 ...it's our next thread, with a caveat emptor on Mar 2 ... though I have a feeling that may start to yield to this one... we'll see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: George, Here are some suggested tags for your upcoming thread: Death Famine Destruction The End of Days unfunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 The gfs is a beast for March 4th, it does exactly what I was rooting for the 28th storm to do, it goes over the canal and deepens to the 970s. Man that would be something, that’s gotta be nearly half a foot of sleet for some areas in SE Mass verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Do not start a thread. 2 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 I'll take some more days like today. Thank you... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 17 minutes ago, George001 said: The gfs is a beast for March 4th, it does exactly what I was rooting for the 28th storm to do, it goes over the canal and deepens to the 970s. Man that would be something, that’s gotta be nearly half a foot of sleet for some areas in SE Mass verbatim. except that it's not a Miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 34 minutes ago, kdxken said: I'll take some more days like today. Thank you... I'm sitting in the dark, thank God for the wood stove. I could have done without the wind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 this is pretty nice for the 4th. the initial wave establishes some confluence over the NE so that it's harder for the main wave to cut main wave tracks underneath. should look good snowfall wise and temp wise. absolute ton of moisture with this thing as well 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 Yeah EPS is honking a bit on 3/4. Pretty decent look. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 24, 2023 Share Posted February 24, 2023 I think March may get me to climo snow avg after all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 24, 2023 Author Share Posted February 24, 2023 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: I think March may get me to climo snow avg after all. I may even have a shot. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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