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March 2023 Obs/Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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6 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Are they intriguing for all NE, or just SNE at this point?  Or is that too detailed at this lead time?

Too detailed. Though SNE probably favored a little more on those looks.

We’ll see what the real models say later. Ensembles are still the way to go right now. 

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Too detailed. Though SNE probably favored a little more on those looks.
We’ll see what the real models say later. Ensembles are still the way to go right now. 

Yeah the rgem still looks decent at 84, it isn’t as amped as 12z so don’t expect cmc to show a 12z- like solution, but it could be decent since it generally follows the rgem.


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1 hour ago, Heisy said:


Yea, need the shortwave to close off and go negative in time and then nyc has a shot as well. Need it to really bomb like control shows for example. CMC is too amped


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For the love of god, just stop lol...it isn't bombing and no one is getting shit. This has been going on for 4 months now.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ensembles didn’t look very good either last night. Still some big hit members but a lot fewer than 12z or 18z. 
 

That lead wave is the main culprit. 

Again…a RAT to the bitter end. What a Piece Of Shit this winter truly is. Not one thing can workout. Not one. Unreal how consistent it is.  Whatever could go wrong, always has. Even the law of averages can’t even compete with this King of all Rats…it just keeps right on going.  
 

I guess you almost have to respect its incredible consistency not allowing it to snow in SNE this season…a feat in and of itself, that’s not easy to do for a whole winter season and then some.  Truly remarkable in that regard. 

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10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Haven’t really paid attention last few days , but it seems the bigger multiple  runs of accumulating snows for NNE is a pipe dream as well ?

Todays system got a lot weaker as we got closer too. Some of those runs were giving 8-12” or even a little more in N NH and Maine. 

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Again…a RAT to the bitter end. What a Piece Of Shit this winter truly is. Not one thing can workout. Not one. Unreal how consistent it is.  Whatever could go wrong, always has. Even the law of averages can’t even compete with this King of all Rats…it just keeps right on going.  
 

I guess you almost have to respect its incredible consistency not allowing it to snow in SNE this season…a feat in and of itself, that’s not easy to do for a whole winter season and then some.  Truly remarkable in that regard. 

JD, the way I deal with stretches like this is viewing our ability to enjoy snow as a banking account. Great storms/seasons are a withdrawal, and ones like this are akin to a deposit in that they reinvigorate/restore our anticipation and appreciation of the good ones. Like everything else and life, there is a balance and certain symmetry at play.

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Off topic but with the discussion of places to live, any thoughts, opinions, recommendations on future retirement places (maybe not full year but part year)? Lake Placid region, Stowe area, Mad River, New Hampshire lakes or Whites region? 
 

Funny I had a conversation with a client this week in NJ that had bought a very expensive home in CO as a second home and to visit their daughter that’s been living out there years. After owning a couple years now they are selling because they’re daughter and her family want to move east again to New England.

They got tired of poor air quality, wildfires, no water, no water for recreation, Californians moving into the area in droves. So looking back north east. 

 

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3 hours ago, gonegalt said:

16f and clear. 5f just NW of here. 

Going there. 

Gonna snow tonite/tomorrow, 6" probably. 

CAR's forecast for Fort Kent:

Today
Mostly sunny, with a high near 40. Light and variable wind becoming east around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight
Snow, mainly after midnight. Low around 27. Southeast wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Sunday
Snow. High near 33. East wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
Sunday Night
Snow, mainly before 3am, then a chance of snow showers after 3am. Low around 27. East wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

 

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5 minutes ago, tamarack said:

CAR's forecast for Fort Kent:

Today
Mostly sunny, with a high near 40. Light and variable wind becoming east around 5 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight
Snow, mainly after midnight. Low around 27. Southeast wind 9 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Sunday
Snow. High near 33. East wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.
Sunday Night
Snow, mainly before 3am, then a chance of snow showers after 3am. Low around 27. East wind around 6 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

 

Yup..they’re in line for a good dump. And right on the heels of Thursdays 6” too.  Good for me cuz I’m heading up early Thursday. I Should time it right. 

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27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

JD, the way I deal with stretches like this is viewing our ability to enjoy snow as a banking account. Great storms/seasons are a withdrawal, and ones like this are akin to a deposit in that they reinvigorate/restore our anticipation and appreciation of the good ones. Like everything else and life, there is a balance and certain symmetry at play.

Agreed Ray…great way to look at it.

I’m just amazed at this seasons ability to find a way not to produce. It’s used and exhausted every way imaginable. Remarkable. We’ve deposited a lot of cash this season with this Rat, that’s for sure. 

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17 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Off topic but with the discussion of places to live, any thoughts, opinions, recommendations on future retirement places (maybe not full year but part year)? Lake Placid region, Stowe area, Mad River, New Hampshire lakes or Whites region? 
 

Funny I had a conversation with a client this week in NJ that had bought a very expensive home in CO as a second home and to visit their daughter that’s been living out there years. After owning a couple years now they are selling because they’re daughter and her family want to move east again to New England.

They got tired of poor air quality, wildfires, no water, no water for recreation, Californians moving into the area in droves. So looking back north east. 

 

The problem is all these places are becoming 55+ retirement communities. I love when COVID retirees who paid cash for their house which used to be part of the workforce inventory complain about there being no restaurants open Monday-Wednesday. Not even the retirees want to live in retirement communities, go figure.

 

That combined with the obsession with “outdoor recreation economic development” a la East Burke which just drives up the cost of housing even more and drives out local people and families. And then those same retirees who moved here for “access to lakes and trails” fight tooth and nail against any new housing developments etc. NNE is in deep trouble looking ahead. 

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