March 2023 Obs/Disco

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I said se MA...meaning your area down through Taunton and into the s shore circle jerk area, where Scooter is.

BTW...that is pretty close to average...I am well below average, so that still proves my point...even though I am sure se MA has done even better than Boston.

[Ginx snewx]

Well this wasn't on my bingo card.

 

[Ginx snewx]

If you have clear sky look north. Definitely a glow behind thin clouds here but no color.

[George001]

52 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I didn't call you dumb, you could be a genius for all I know....but you just need to think before you post. What decline in snowfall? You just had 24-30" blizzard during another above average snowfall season last year. Jerry's data illustrates why you are in fact due to see less snow...you averaged just under 50" for the past 30 years, when you only averaged like 42" for the previous 100 years...when the globe was cooler!!! What does that tell you?? Impending drop off is probably due to simple regression rather than global warming.

I'm not calling you dumb, but you need to stop and think about what you are posting. 

I completely agree that my area will experience further snowfall regression in the future. You do bring up a good point about how when you zoom out, the past 30 years has been more favorable than normal. I’m pretty sure you’ve mentioned this before, but as our temps warmed we’ve been getting more huge storms, and less moderate ones. It’s been a good run, but a eventually a point will be reached where it becomes too warm and those huge blizzards become rainstorms. There are some good posts on the mid Atlantic board about how that “tipping point” has been reached down there, leading to a rapid decline in snowfall. I have no aversion to the idea that we will see less snowfall in the future, I’d go as far as saying that climate change will fuck my area over quicker than it fucks over yours, since my average temps are higher to begin with.
 

We have experienced snowfall regression over the past 7 years, Is there an element of plain old bad luck? Yeah, but it’s fair to ask if some of those borderline storms (mainly the firehose part of March storm and the mid December one roughly a week before the big cutter) would have been much snowier a decade ago. I’m not really sure to be honest, my gut instinct is that the March one is plain old bad luck, but the December one would have been a lot better a decade ago. This is speculation though, could easily be wrong about both. Yes, we got lucky last year, but over the past 7 years we have been below climo. The claim that I have an aversion to the idea that SE Mass will experience further snowfall regression is wrong. If anything, as someone who is of the opinion that this period is the beginning of a “tipping point”, I’m of the opinion that the next 7 years will be even worse than the 2016-2023 period. No reason why that can’t happen, with the rapidly warming climate those years like last year where we got lucky in a meh overall pattern could easily become ratters.

[eekuasepinniW]

The explosion of light pollution across the water at the marina over the last few years makes getting photos a pain. This largely appeared as a colorless glow to the eye, really only distinguishable because of the backlit clouds. Did catch some faint but super impressive wave-like pulsations.  The speed is simply nuts.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, George001 said:

I completely agree that my area will experience further snowfall regression in the future. You do bring up a good point about how when you zoom out, the past 30 years has been more favorable than normal. I’m pretty sure you’ve mentioned this before, but as our temps warmed we’ve been getting more huge storms, and less moderate ones. It’s been a good run, but a eventually a point will be reached where it becomes too warm and those huge blizzards become rainstorms. There are some good posts on the mid Atlantic board about how that “tipping point” has been reached down there, leading to a rapid decline in snowfall. I have no aversion to the idea that we will see less snowfall in the future, I’d go as far as saying that climate change will fuck my area over quicker than it fucks over yours, since my average temps are higher to begin with.
 

We have experienced snowfall regression over the past 7 years, Is there an element of plain old bad luck? Yeah, but it’s fair to ask if some of those borderline storms (mainly the firehose part of March storm and the mid December one roughly a week before the big cutter) would have been much snowier a decade ago. I’m not really sure to be honest, my gut instinct is that the March one is plain old bad luck, but the December one would have been a lot better a decade ago. This is speculation though, could easily be wrong about both. Yes, we got lucky last year, but over the past 7 years we have been below climo. The claim that I have an aversion to the idea that SE Mass will experience further snowfall regression is wrong. If anything, as someone who is of the opinion that this period is the beginning of a “tipping point”, I’m of the opinion that the next 7 years will be even worse than the 2016-2023 period. No reason why that can’t happen, with the rapidly warming climate those years like last year where we got lucky in a meh overall pattern could easily become ratters.

A short wave phasing with polar vortex parked over western Canada would have rained here in the year 261BC.....that was shit-luck synoptics, my friend. 

As for last year, "we" didn't get lucky...southeast Mass did...which harkens back to my point.

[ineedsnow]

EPS still not bad 

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

A short wave phasing with polar vortex parked over western Canada would have rained here in the year 261BC.....that was shit-luck synoptics, my friend. 

As for last year, "we" didn't get lucky...southeast Mass did...which harkens back to my point.

He’s also missing an entire point. Relative to everyone else, SE MA had had a run even post 2015. Even if the entire region as a whole as regressed a bit since 2015, we’ve been pulling storms out of our bums. Feb 2016, March 2019, SB storm 2021, Both storms in Jan 2022. I might even be missing some.  I’m pretty sure I’m still averaging just AN or close to it. This year may change it.  

[gonegalt]

24f

4" new yesty/last night. Goin ridin!

[Great Snow 1717]

7 hours ago, George001 said:

Anyways, we shouldn’t ignore the temps. The snow has been below average, but the temps have been historically warm. SNE has warmed nearly 4 degrees ma Fahrenheit over the past century, and that warmth isn’t showing any signs of stopping. The global SSTs are warmer now than they were during the super nino in 2016. It hasn’t completely killed off our snow climo yet, but in the long run we know there’s going to be a point where the warmth wins out, and seasonal snow averages start declining quickly. It’s already happening in the mid Atlantic. There’s some good posts on that subforum about how while the past several winters should have been below average, they shouldn’t have been THIS bad based on analogs. We probably have another good run or two left, but we probably will see Boston’s climo decline to below 30 inches of snow per year in our lifetimes. Many of us on these boards love the snow, which is why I think there is such a strong pushback against anything that even suggests that snow climo could be deteriorating because of climate change. 

...numerous people are in denial...

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

...numerous people are in denial...

So ignore the actual data showing otherwise?

[CoastalWx]

I mean at some point we may come to a tipping point, but so far our 30 yr averages have been going up. 
 

That may change going forward just from regression alone despite warming temps. We just haven’t reached the tipping point yet. 

[CoastalWx]

George I took the Hingham coop numbers for that time period. If you include this year it will be BN given the current 30 yr norm. 
 

But as I said earlier, taking into account how we did relative to the rest of SNE, we are doing well in SE areas. That’s the whole point. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

EPS still not bad 

Eps has been trash all over

Go with the GFS

[Damage In Tolland]

I would not rule out snow next week. The signals are there 

[512high]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I would not rule out snow next week. The signals are there 

Kevin, Agree there are a few members there, just want one more......then I'm done.

[weatherwiz]

GFS with a sneaky event Monday night 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

...numerous people are in denial...

No one is denying global warming. 

[Lava Rock]

1 hour ago, gonegalt said:

24f

4" new yesty/last night. Goin ridin!

put a cover on that sled

[40/70 Benchmark]

54 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

George I took the Hingham coop numbers for that time period. If you include this year it will be BN given the current 30 yr norm. 
 

But as I said earlier, taking into account how we did relative to the rest of SNE, we are doing well in SE areas. That’s the whole point. 

Exactly.

[Lava Rock]

So no big one on Tues?

[Whineminster]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No one is denying global warming. 

Enough of this GW shit that we'll never agree on. We snow next week or what? 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Whineminster said:

Enough of this GW shit that we'll never agree on. We snow next week or what? 

We'll find out next week

[George001]

 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

George I took the Hingham coop numbers for that time period. If you include this year it will be BN given the current 30 yr norm. 
 

But as I said earlier, taking into account how we did relative to the rest of SNE, we are doing well in SE areas. That’s the whole point. 

So despite getting boned less than the rest of SNE, we are still running BN climo the past 7 year. If everyone else in SNE has done even worse it just means everyone has been getting unlucky, not that we are getting lucky.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

16 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

GFS with a sneaky event Monday night 

6z euro with it too.. that may be the event for us lol .. a sneaky night time event with a cold source to our north.. 

[SouthCoastMA]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No one is denying global warming. 

Great Strawman 1717

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

6z euro with it too.. that may be the event for us lol .. a sneaky night time event with a cold source to our north.. 

This is probably the type of setup we need to actually get something  

[George001]

10 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Great Strawman 1717

It’s possible to acknowledge climate change is real and still be in denial about it’s role in our bad post 2015 stretch. I don’t think people want to admit that it’s already screwing us because that means it’s only going to get worse from here. It’s not “a long ways away” from screwing us, it’s already happening and this past 7 year stretch is only the beginning.

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, George001 said:

It’s possible to acknowledge climate change is real and still be in denial about it’s role in our bad post 2015 stretch. I don’t think people want to admit that it’s already screwing us because that means it’s only going to get worse from here. It’s not “a long ways away” from screwing us, it’s already happening and this past 7 year stretch is only the beginning.

Take this shit to the proper thread.  

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I would not rule out snow next week. The signals are there 

For here, or NNE?