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March 2023 Obs/Disco


40/70 Benchmark
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3 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Not seeing a lot of spring warmth over the next few weeks it seems.

It's above normal the last 3 days ... in the 50s. 

I guess it depends on one's expectations but the charts from 10 days ago, for this week, were not much different than the charts now for 10 days from now - with one subtle exception, they are warmer in the general panache.  Yet we are above normal in spring...

I guess if by 'spring warmth' we rock 70s in convertibles ... probably not?  But it's spring.

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1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

You live in kind of a dead zone like PF says. I would gather your return on 18 plus storms is much less than all points of the compass from you.

SNE/CNE has plenty of screw zones.  Although, in most cases they have to do with topography and elevation whereas that is not as big of an issue in Ray’s area.

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I guess it depends on one's expectations but the charts from 10 days ago, for this week, were not much different than the charts now for 10 days from now - with one subtle exception, they are warmer in the general panache.  That look back whence, which had sub 540 hydrostatic heights everywhere btw, resulted in 50s this week under Equinox warm sun.  So...we are above normal in spring, despite that look.

It's a hidden trend established in near perpetuity spanning the past ... oh 10 years really, to always have to add warmth to mid and especially the extended.  The arctic outbreaks of 2016 and early this last Feb were exceptions to that rule...  But here, we combine that with spring's tending to do that, anyway. Then, adding the present negative PNA through the period...  mmm gee, I think it may end up warmer than the modeled signal. 

The question is...can a system along the way "overcompensate" ... maybe...

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41 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

SNE/CNE has plenty of screw zones.  Although, in most cases they have to do with topography and elevation whereas that is not as big of an issue in Ray’s area.

Problem with my area is I am often too far inland to get in on low level deformation near the coast, but not far enough inland to entirely avoid marine taint and get deformation areas to the west that the costal plane misses out on. I really need to thread a small needle to jackpot in a large event.

My area is also far enough north to get fringed or miss some SNE deals, but seldom far enough north to clean up on NNE deals that SNE misses out on...I'll get "better scraps" than SNE, sure...

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38 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's above normal the last 3 days ... in the 50s. 

I guess it depends on one's expectations but the charts from 10 days ago, for this week, were not much different than the charts now for 10 days from now - with one subtle exception, they are warmer in the general panache.  Yet we are above normal in spring...

I guess if by 'spring warmth' we rock 70s in convertibles ... probably not?  But it's spring.

This wouldn't really be effective with the general public, but I think it would be beneficial to start looking at above-below average temperatures in terms of standard deviation as opposed to just the boring ole departure.

Hell, I think it would be great to be able to do something based on a historical basis. For example, say the average high temperature at BDL is 52. It would be interesting to see each high temperatures for each March 23 in the database. Judging a 60-65F reading against that average may seem quite impressive, however, if the data is skewed towards that range is it as impressive as it really seems?

also, outliers should be removed from the calculations (I wonder if they are or not). 

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Still a lot of model discrepancy as the Canadian wants to entertain. 

There's like 3 vortmaxes in the flow....so guidance will prob need a little more time to figure them out. Ukie was pretty much nothing. Icon almost pulled a Canadian but not quite.

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There's like 3 vortmaxes in the flow....so guidance will prob need a little more time to figure them out. Ukie was pretty much nothing. Icon almost pulled a Canadian but not quite.

Yeah you can tell the timing of which one is valid, is causing some issues. GEFS have a weak low, but probably related to timing as well. 

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