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March 2023 Obs/Disco


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46 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

How did northern Maine look? Heading up next Wednesday/Thursday,  and hoping to be able to get a lil riding in, before I call it a rap. 

New Sweden reported 24" pack this morning.  That's farm country - to the west add at least another foot, with more to come.  And you know how good the grooming is there.

Mid 40s here with snow echoes overhead, but the DP deficit of 25°+ ensures that nothing makes it to the ground.

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Not skilled enough to tell you what's driving it, but 12Z Euro takes the primary low for this weekend over Chicago.  Perfect (for me at least)

Edit - looks like it does pop a secondary albeit later than previous runs, and would still be a rain > snow solution for me verbatim.  

I'm admittedly overly invested in this system for personal reasons and rooting for a rainy solution for Southern ME.  I wouldn't normally comment on models, but since it's just 7 of us plus 4 moose who care, i'm doing it.

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Golfers loss is a skiers gain.

Ekster:

The next short wave trough traverses the Plains and Great Lakes
which then affects our forecast area starting Saturday. A good
deal of deterministic models and ensemble members pop a
secondary low to our south Saturday night which would tend to
lock the colder air in, except for perhaps southernmost zones
and some coastal zones. As such this could end up being a high
end advisory to lower end warning snow event with the heaviest
falling Saturday night. However, still have to protect a little
bit against warming, since aloft this is a southwest/south flow
event with really nothing to block warming up above except for
upward motion. With all this said, it`s only Tuesday and so much
can change between now and then so it`s not prudent to try to
get into details at this time.

There are also some indications that another storm could be in
the offing for Tue the 28th. Sorry to all the golfers up here
(myself included). Unfortunately we can`t control it.
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27 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Not skilled enough to tell you what's driving it, but 12Z Euro takes the primary low for this weekend over Chicago.  Perfect (for me at least)

Edit - looks like it does pop a secondary albeit later than previous runs, and would still be a rain > snow solution for me verbatim.  

I'm admittedly overly invested in this system for personal reasons and rooting for a rainy solution for Southern ME.  I wouldn't normally comment on models, but since it's just 7 of us plus 4 moose who care, i'm doing it.

Lots of time but I wouldn’t expect much more than a sloppy few inches for coastal areas. With that’s said the bulk of the qpf falls at night so that should help. The gradient for advisory/warning snows looks to set up somewhere near me. EPS looks good with the transfer. Fun to be tracking in late March, it’s been a while. No complaints here. 

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6 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

I sickly hope NNE gets buried and then we await late April 87 redux. Tamarack knows what I mean.

I'd take another 4/28-29 snowfall.  ORH got 17", biggest of that snow season.  The flood peaked on 4/1 or 4/2, depending on where on the river.

Katadhin with 54"

Undoubtedly at Chimney Pond - the ridge 2,200' higher would never hold that much; its wind probably isn't all that much less than at MWN.  In 2017 the depth at Chimney reached 94", tallest in Maine records.

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Euro kept the wave separate and it develops into its own SLP, kind of what the GFs showed a run or two before. Most other guidance phases the energy into that TPV in central canada. Could still bomb in time for NNE into Maine, but def sell euro solution for now…not that many were buying lol.

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7b4d1ce010a2f189896efc995f4aa56b.jpg


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