March 2023 Obs/Disco

[Great Snow 1717]

4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

We've seen a great improvement thanks to technological enhancements and fine-tuning the theory. Not even debatable. My basis is we're stagnating here, and it's not because of the former; but an over-reliance on it. And some take this further with an arrogance to ignore everything else. 

In mathematical terms, we've hit a forecasting asymptote. More effort of staring at models is not creating more accurate forecasts. 

Same applies in sports especially in baseball with the over use of radar gun readings...some scouts rely far too much on radar gun readings rather than actual performance.  They ignore performance and other factors.  It is laziness and arrogance.....it is the equivalent of staring at models but not actually "finding" more good pitchers.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah and that’s shown by it being so warm +7 to +10 just north of you in January but with above normal snow during that time.  If that’s like +3 or +4 maybe that big CNE snow zone dips to the Pike instead of Lakes Region.

Even I was a shade above normal for snowfall in January.

[Great Snow 1717]

13 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

TT is already calling next winter off lol 

He posted the Noah maps for the temperature outlook for December, January, February. As if that'll stick right now. I'm just ready for the warm weather for now. Until next year. Enjoy the summer you guys, let's have a nice big tropical storm come up here. See you later

 

 

 

Those Noah maps correctly predicted THE FLOOD

 

[George001]

The Pope did a great job with his forecasts this winter, I have to give credit where it’s due. Analogs and the long range models are good tools but the Pope correctly assessed that the presence of geese in November was a red flag. Animals have no sense of the calendar, the way they tell the seasons are changing is based off the present weather, the landscape, etc. Being able to accurately prepare for the change of seasons is literally a matter of life and death for animals, as they are forced to endure a level of exposure to the elements that we have the luxury of avoiding. They are far more in tune with the elements than we are, so I do think seasonal forecasters would benefit from incorporating analysis of animal behavior into their forecasts. Yeah it’s a strange method yeah, but if it works it works. I thought it was dumb at first too,  but throughout the winter it became more and more clear that I was being too closed minded. Instead of just discounting something because it seems dumb, strange, or is telling us something we don’t want to hear, it’s good to keep an open mind. 

[Great Snow 1717]

7 minutes ago, George001 said:

The Pope did a great job with his forecasts this winter, I have to give credit where it’s due. Analogs and the long range models are good tools but the Pope correctly assessed that the presence of geese in November was a red flag. Animals have no sense of the calendar, the way they tell the seasons are changing is based off the present weather, the landscape, etc. Being able to accurately prepare for the change of seasons is literally a matter of life and death for animals, as they are forced to endure a level of exposure to the elements that we have the luxury of avoiding. They are far more in tune with the elements than we are, so I do think seasonal forecasters would benefit from incorporating analysis of animal behavior into their forecasts. Yeah it’s a strange method yeah, but if it works it works. I thought it was dumb at first too,  but throughout the winter it became more and more clear that I was being too closed minded. Instead of just discounting something because it seems dumb, strange, or is telling us something we don’t want to hear, it’s good to keep an open mind. 

People aren't in tuned with nature as much as they once were because people spend far more time indoors  than they use to...

[SJonesWX]

9 minutes ago, George001 said:

The Pope did a great job with his forecasts this winter, I have to give credit where it’s due. Analogs and the long range models are good tools but the Pope correctly assessed that the presence of geese in November was a red flag. Animals have no sense of the calendar, the way they tell the seasons are changing is based off the present weather, the landscape, etc. Being able to accurately prepare for the change of seasons is literally a matter of life and death for animals, as they are forced to endure a level of exposure to the elements that we have the luxury of avoiding. They are far more in tune with the elements than we are, so I do think seasonal forecasters would benefit from incorporating analysis of animal behavior into their forecasts. Yeah it’s a strange method yeah, but if it works it works. I thought it was dumb at first too,  but throughout the winter it became more and more clear that I was being too closed minded. Instead of just discounting something because it seems dumb, strange, or is telling us something we don’t want to hear, it’s good to keep an open mind. 

This is silly. geese are indicative of the current weather. In no way can geese, or any other animal for that matter predict the future weather.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

This is silly. geese are indicative of the current weather. In no way can geese, or any other animal for that matter predict the future weather.

Speak for yourself, I'm all-in on using geese next year to predict the weather a month out.

[SouthCoastMA]

when above normal geese poop is flowin

warm weather winds will soon be blowin

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

We've seen a great improvement thanks to technological enhancements and fine-tuning the theory. Not even debatable. My basis is we're stagnating here, and it's not because of the former; but an over-reliance on it. And some take this further with an arrogance to ignore everything else, "we know everything, that's relevant to weather forecasting". No, we don't. 

In mathematical terms, we've hit a forecasting asymptote. More effort of staring at models is not creating more accurate forecasts. 

New word of the day.
Thanks.

[Cold Miser]

39 minutes ago, George001 said:

The Pope did a great job with his forecasts this winter, I have to give credit where it’s due. Analogs and the long range models are good tools but the Pope correctly assessed that the presence of geese in November was a red flag. Animals have no sense of the calendar, the way they tell the seasons are changing is based off the present weather, the landscape, etc. Being able to accurately prepare for the change of seasons is literally a matter of life and death for animals, as they are forced to endure a level of exposure to the elements that we have the luxury of avoiding. They are far more in tune with the elements than we are, so I do think seasonal forecasters would benefit from incorporating analysis of animal behavior into their forecasts. Yeah it’s a strange method yeah, but if it works it works. I thought it was dumb at first too,  but throughout the winter it became more and more clear that I was being too closed minded. Instead of just discounting something because it seems dumb, strange, or is telling us something we don’t want to hear, it’s good to keep an open mind. 

Agreed,  F.uck technology, it's a burden and more of an eyesore than geese.

[powderfreak]

47 minutes ago, George001 said:

The Pope did a great job with his forecasts this winter, I have to give credit where it’s due. Analogs and the long range models are good tools but the Pope correctly assessed that the presence of geese in November was a red flag. Animals have no sense of the calendar, the way they tell the seasons are changing is based off the present weather, the landscape, etc. Being able to accurately prepare for the change of seasons is literally a matter of life and death for animals, as they are forced to endure a level of exposure to the elements that we have the luxury of avoiding. They are far more in tune with the elements than we are, so I do think seasonal forecasters would benefit from incorporating analysis of animal behavior into their forecasts. Yeah it’s a strange method yeah, but if it works it works. I thought it was dumb at first too,  but throughout the winter it became more and more clear that I was being too closed minded. Instead of just discounting something because it seems dumb, strange, or is telling us something we don’t want to hear, it’s good to keep an open mind. 

Wrong about the geese though in the sense that it is a red flag.

Nature doesn’t predict things, it reacts to them.  Geese in late November is more because November was warm, not that the geese knew what was coming.

Its like when people see flowers come up and assume nature knows it’s going to be warm after that… no it was warm before that and soil temp hits a certain level and the flower comes up.  Could die tomorrow in a deep freeze, ha.

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

November does have a small correlation to winter temps. But it's certainly not strong enough to use as a primary variable for forecasting winter temps.

 

Only one site though a long one (130 years) - Farmington co-op shows a solid correlation between Nov temp and snowfall.

Nov AN temp, avg snowfall 84.4"

Nov BN temp, avg snowfall 95.9"

Irony:  The co-op's snowiest winter (164" in 68-69) and lest snowy (43" in 80-81) both had BN temps in Nov.

(Another topic:  Farmington co-op obs stopped in the middle of last Oct.  It would be sad if that 99%+ complete data has come to an end.  In recent years, century-plus obs have ended at Lewiston, Bridgton and Gardiner.)

[ORH_wxman]

32 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Only one site though a long one (130 years) - Farmington co-op shows a solid correlation between Nov temp and snowfall.

Nov AN temp, avg snowfall 84.4"

Nov BN temp, avg snowfall 95.9"

Irony:  The co-op's snowiest winter (164" in 68-69) and lest snowy (43" in 80-81) both had BN temps in Nov.

(Another topic:  Farmington co-op obs stopped in the middle of last Oct.  It would be sad if that 99%+ complete data has come to an end.  In recent years, century-plus obs have ended at Lewiston, Bridgton and Gardiner.)

I'd expect Nov temps to be more highly correlated with snowfall in central Maine since November itself (and early December by extension which is going to be highly correlated with Nov temps) is a more meaningful snowfall period than further south.

[tamarack]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd expect Nov temps to be more highly correlated with snowfall in central Maine since November itself (and early December by extension which is going to be highly correlated with Nov temps) is a more meaningful snowfall period than further south.

Probably, but it's likely more than that, as Nov plus Dec 1-15 snow averages 15", only about 17% of the current 89.6" total.

[weatherwiz]

Well with things heading towards the quieter direction, it's time to really make moves with the ENSO thread and gearing up composites. I just wish it was so much easier to make composites, especially when doing different breakdowns and such. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Well with things heading towards the quieter direction, it's time to really make moves with the ENSO thread and gearing up composites. I just wish it was so much easier to make composites, especially when doing different breakdowns and such. 

Yea, I think we're done...but I'm taking some time off from weather. El nino composites can wait until the summer.

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I think we're done...but I'm taking some time off from weather. El nino composites can wait until the summer.

When you get back to it and you use the site I sent you, when you generate the composite, scroll down and there is an option "Back retaining options". This will eliminate that bug of de-selecting the two dataset options. 

[weatherwiz]

Probably moreso north of the Pike, but could be some nasty snow squalls around Sunday 

[8611Blizz]

https://tenor.com/bfSut.gif

[tamarack]

4 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Wrong about the geese though in the sense that it is a red flag.

Nature doesn’t predict things, it reacts to them.  Geese in late November is more because November was warm, not that the geese knew what was coming.

Its like when people see flowers come up and assume nature knows it’s going to be warm after that… no it was warm before that and soil temp hits a certain level and the flower comes up.  Could die tomorrow in a deep freeze, ha.

Geese may not have much temporal wx knowledge but they must have some geographical.  When they're flying north at night during early spring, investing hundreds of miles of effort, their survival can depend on their finding open water in the morning.  (Thanks to the late Aldo Leopold and his "Sand County Almanac".)

This winter is one the strangest and is wrecking my grading system, which is based on both temp and snow.  
Month     Temp     Snow
DEC         +5.0     +4.4" (123%)
JAN         +9.1      +9.9" (149%)
FEB          +1.5      -6.3" (72%)
MAR         +4.1     +5.8" (135%)  thru the 16th, snow compared to full month.

Snowfall inverse to cold?




 

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Snowfall inverse to cold?

Sign me up for this every winter. I probably could’ve had one of those cold hardy pomegranates survive if it wasn’t for that 48hr cold shot in early Feb.

[TalcottWx]

Driving through Eastern CT to Providence for a wedding, Rt 44 is a good place to hide a body. Seriously, I'm in Pomfret. It's straight backwoods nothingness

[Heisy]

Pretty big signal for a storm around 28th. Depends on TPV position and the storm ahead of it. Signal is there big time for the interior though…

Control in here for entertainment purposes only






.

[tamarack]

32 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Sign me up for this every winter. I probably could’ve had one of those cold hardy pomegranates survive if it wasn’t for that 48hr cold shot in early Feb.

Without that blast, this winter would've been peach-safe at my frost pocket.  After 3 years of dieback/regrowth, 2001-02 with its coldest a mere -12 was followed by 100+ luscious fruit.  Then came 02-03 with 12 minima of -20 to -29, some with wind, and the tree was dead.  Was nice to get that crop before being firmly shown that trying to grow peaches here was a fool's errand.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Geese may not have much temporal wx knowledge but they must have some geographical.  When they're flying north at night during early spring, investing hundreds of miles of effort, their survival can depend on their finding open water in the morning.  (Thanks to the late Aldo Leopold and his "Sand County Almanac".)

This winter is one the strangest and is wrecking my grading system, which is based on both temp and snow.  
Month     Temp     Snow
DEC         +5.0     +4.4" (123%)
JAN         +9.1      +9.9" (149%)
FEB          +1.5      -6.3" (72%)
MAR         +4.1     +5.8" (135%)  thru the 16th, snow compared to full month.

Snowfall inverse to cold?




 

Oh gosh.  I read that book during college back in the 1980s.  I had totally forgotten about it.

[Ginx snewx]

52 minutes ago, TalcottWx said:

Driving through Eastern CT to Providence for a wedding, Rt 44 is a good place to hide a body. Seriously, I'm in Pomfret. It's straight backwoods nothingness

Big money in Pomfret and you don't want to ask.

[Torch Tiger]

9 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

I just want to see trees start budding and get 60's for now. Then have months on end of 80's 90's with humidity. 

let's get it going early....80's would feel pretty good.  Plus all the bees and spiders would hatch

[powderfreak]

15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Big money in Pomfret and you don't want to ask.

Celebrity money too.  Renee Zellweger was one hiding bodies out there.

[40/70 Benchmark]

49 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Pretty big signal for a storm around 28th. Depends on TPV position and the storm ahead of it. Signal is there big time for the interior though…

Control in here for entertainment purposes only






.

Put the early over/under on an inch of slush for Methuen...

[Torch Tiger]

53 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Pretty big signal for a storm around 28th. Depends on TPV position and the storm ahead of it. Signal is there big time for the interior though…

Control in here for entertainment purposes only






.