March 2023 Obs/Disco

[Met1985]

21 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I would prefer a faster decay, and for spring to really get going later this month after a 2 week about a real winter for all of us. But experience says that if the negative NAO really sets in west-based, it will not retreat that quickly, even if some models are showing it. But when it does retreat, It will be lovely.

Im thinking we will see a strengthening negative NAO in April as well the way things are looking.  

[wxeyeNH]

Sneaky, under the radar for tonight?

 

[tunafish]

5 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Sneaky, under the radar for tonight?

 

GYX not feeling it at that latitude (yet)

[weathafella]

The sleet encrusted 2 inch glacier left over from last week isn’t melting well today.  Even in my full sun front yard it looks the same as it did last night.   It shows the physics of melting of sleet/ice vs pure snow.

[wxeyeNH]

26 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The sleet encrusted 2 inch glacier left over from last week isn’t melting well today.  Even in my full sun front yard it looks the same as it did last night.   It shows the physics of melting of sleet/ice vs pure snow.

Exactly Jerry.   Low moisture "fake" snow melts right off.  Up here the old stuff becomes glaciated.  We still have a layer of Dec snow.  So even with days of sun and 40F it takes forever to melt.  Also because nights are cold in the spring the pack takes until midday or afternoon to start to feel the melt.  I have such great retention.  That can be a bad thing come the end of March when you want the pack to melt and it doesn't.

Okay, back to the Euro.  Seems like a system is going to give me accumulating snow late tonight.  No one around here expects that as they watch the Friday night big storm!

[mahk_webstah]

13 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Exactly Jerry.   Low moisture "fake" snow melts right off.  Up here the old stuff becomes glaciated.  We still have a layer of Dec snow.  So even with days of sun and 40F it takes forever to melt.  Also because nights are cold in the spring the pack takes until midday or afternoon to start to feel the melt.  I have such great retention.  That can be a bad thing come the end of March when you want the pack to melt and it doesn't.

Okay, back to the Euro.  Seems like a system is going to give me accumulating snow late tonight.  No one around here expects that as they watch the Friday night big storm!

How does the euro look for tonight?  I haven’t mentally shifted to the fact that I might be waking up to a couple or few inches snow tomorrow morning.

[Ginx snewx]

In like a pussycat

[wxeyeNH]

19 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

How does the euro look for tonight?  I haven’t mentally shifted to the fact that I might be waking up to a couple or few inches snow tomorrow morning.

Euro has about .25" qpf for you and more for me.  It has precip starting as snow and transiting to sleet and a bit of freezing rain for you.  Around 1" of snow.  More snow for me.  Models keep trending more precip.  Here are Euro and GFS snowfall for tonight's event.  GFS more bullish.

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

Euro has about .25" qpf for you and more for me.  It has precip starting as snow and transiting to sleet and a bit of freezing rain for you.  Around 1" of snow.  More snow for me.  Models keep trending more precip.  Here are Euro and GFS snowfall for tonight's event.  GFS more bullish.

With my untrained weenie mind would say is that if the GFS comes in more true tonight, then it will probably come more through Friday night. So if I wake up to a nice snow cover, then the GFS of one. If not in the euros on track and not crack.

[wxeyeNH]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

With my untrained weenie mind would say is that if the GFS comes in more true tonight, then it will probably come more through Friday night. So if I wake up to a nice snow cover, then the GFS of one. If not in the euros on track and not crack.

I am surprised Gray has not issued a WWA since "the trend is our friend"   35.4/26 right now so we have some room to cool down 

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

I am surprised Gray has not issued a WWA since "the trend is our friend"   35.4/26 right now so we have some room to cool down 

They probably will at least for in the afternoon package

[TalcottWx]

From: Michael Rawlins <[email protected]>

Sent: Wednesday, March 1, 2023 1:32 PM

Subject: Top 5 Warmest Winter Across Southern New England

 

 

 

Top 5 Warmest Winter Across Southern New England

 

Winter averaged above freezing at the long-term sites, and freezing days are becoming rarer

 

Climate System Research Center

University of Massachusetts, Amherst

March 1, 2023

 

Winter (Dec-Feb) average temperature at long-term climate sites in southern New England were much warmer than normal, ranking in the top 5 warmest on record at four regional sites. Winter was warmest over the respective period of record at Worcester, third warmest at Amherst, fourth warmest at Hartford, and fifth warmest at Boston.

 

At each site, winter 2022-2023 averaged above freezing. The four warmest winters at each location have now averaged above freezing, and have all occurred since 2000.

 

Few winter days averaged below freezing. Hartford had just 23 such days, tied with 2011-2012 for fewest on record. Boston had 19 below-freezing days, tied for second fewest on record. Worcester’s 38 freezing days ranks third fewest there.

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

The ORH record is bogus....since ASOS has been running consistently about 2F warm. It's still roughly a top 5 warmest winter though there, just not truly warmer than 2001-2002.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

D10 system on the euro looks pretty nuts. Regardless, mid month looks prime for something big. 

[brooklynwx99]

this is nearly perfect. the EPS is holding serve on a legitimate KU evolution for next weekend

[Cold Miser]

29 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is nearly perfect. the EPS is holding serve on a legitimate KU evolution for next weekend

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

53 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

D10 system on the euro looks pretty nuts. Regardless, mid month looks prime for something big. 

Wow a actual ridge over Cali/ Nevada 

[Chris12WX]

Marh 1993 redux setting up 240 on Euro.

[cleetussnow]

3 minutes ago, Chris12WX said:

Marh 1993 redux setting up 240 on Euro.

The storm that shall not be named.

[WinterWolf]

38 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is nearly perfect. the EPS is holding serve on a legitimate KU evolution for next weekend

They’ve all looked nuts and huge/KU like at 10 plus days.  Then they devolve. Yes that pattern looks practically perfect to support something big. Let’s see how it evolves over the next 7 days or so.  
 

As I said, I’ll most likely be in N. Maine next weekend, so that should add some good juju to the mix cuz I’ll be gone/I’ll miss this potential. Lol. 

[Chris12WX]

2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

The storm that shall not be named.

I was 2....any reason in particular?

[SnoSki14]

13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Wow a actual ridge over Cali/ Nevada 

Ridge out west + gulf low + big 50/50 under a decaying NAO. 

That's a recipe for a monster event if it played out as shown.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, Chris12WX said:

Marh 1993 redux setting up 240 on Euro.

Not even close to the same set up actually ... 

I applaud the enthusiasm but Mar 1993 was a rare circumstance of the eastern Pacific being in such an overwhelming AA mode type amplitude, that the full latitude ridging went from eastern Alaska all the way to the subtropics, such that the entire local hemisphere, east of that axis wound up in one dominate jet with a powerful Rosby wave propagating through... Triple stream phased, atmospheric version of a "rogue wave" really.

That's entirely different than what that chart above is indicating.  just fwiw

[cleetussnow]

8 minutes ago, Chris12WX said:

I was 2....any reason in particular?

It was the biggest storm of my life and got me into this weather stuff.  I got 3 feet.  It cannot be matched at least for me (and some others) at least psychologically.  Anytime someone mentions the name of that storm it seems to jinx a repeat.

 

Edit: which Tip just did  ;-)

[Chris12WX]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not even close to the same set up actually ... 

I applaud the enthusiasm but Mar 1993 was a rare circumstance of the eastern Pacific being in such an overwhelming AA mode type amplitude, that the full latitude ridging went from eastern Alaska all the way to the subtropics, such that the entire local hemisphere wound up in one dominate jet with a powerful Rosby wave propagating through.

That's entirely different than what that chart above is indicating.  just fwiw

You mean the 240 hr EPS mean doesn't show that amplitude of ridging? Op Euro is pretty close. Loop 250 mb winds from hr 186 on, it legit yanks the subtropical jet from the equator to New Orleans.

[ORH_wxman]

12 minutes ago, Chris12WX said:

You mean the 240 hr EPS mean doesn't show that amplitude of ridging? Op Euro is pretty close. Loop 250 mb winds from hr 186 on, it legit yanks the subtropical jet from the equator to New Orleans.

The entire ridge/trough couplet in March 1993 was considerably larger than what the Euro is showing...and that's not to poo-poo the OP Euro look...that's a powderkeg look there....but Mar '93 was so ridiculous in the magnitude of it relative to the hemispheric pattern that it makes the D10 Euro look kind of paltry in comparison. Like March '93 wasn't playing around with the blocky look we have here...it was just simply including the PV into the trough axis

 

[CoastalWx]

Looks like 2-3 chances on the EPS after Saturday. 

[Chris12WX]

17 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The entire ridge/trough couplet in March 1993 was considerably larger than what the Euro is showing...and that's not to poo-poo the OP Euro look...that's a powderkeg look there....but Mar '93 was so ridiculous in the magnitude of it relative to the hemispheric pattern that it makes the D10 Euro look kind of paltry in comparison. Like March '93 wasn't playing around with the blocky look we have here...it was just simply including the PV into the trough axis

 

Of course this is probably all a useless discussion as this will probably transition into a repeat of the Christmas bomb. Maybe we'll get severe out of it?

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Chris12WX said:

Of course this is probably all a useless discussion as this will probably transition into a repeat of the Christmas bomb. Maybe we'll get severe out of it?

this pattern looks way different than that one

[FXWX]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The entire ridge/trough couplet in March 1993 was considerably larger than what the Euro is showing...and that's not to poo-poo the OP Euro look...that's a powderkeg look there....but Mar '93 was so ridiculous in the magnitude of it relative to the hemispheric pattern that it makes the D10 Euro look kind of paltry in comparison. Like March '93 wasn't playing around with the blocky look we have here...it was just simply including the PV into the trough axis

 

The arctic charge into the Gulf states was about as extreme as I have ever seen!  People forget the vicious severe weather event that ripped across Florida!