March 2023 Obs/Disco

[powderfreak]

24 minutes ago, radarman said:

Pond hockey country

It may have snow issues in deep layer easterly flow, but it is definitely NNE in vibe.  Borderline boreal forest, narrow evergreens mixed with dotted hardwoods.  Cold.  Frozen ponds early and late season.  The vegetation gives a vibe up in that corner of VT/NH.

[bristolri_wx]

2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

let's goooo

 

3 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 hours ago, powderfreak said:

68” over you lol.

The Met weenies at Lyndon State are losing their minds I’m sure ha.

That’s 68” Over KBED with FIT LWM and ASH and MHT all at 60” + (& DAW)

 

[wx2fish]

The Thursday system is looking a little more interesting across central NH into southern ME. 0z GFS is pushing warning amounts. Nam wasn't as interested, but the hrrr went wild. 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

The Thursday system is looking a little more interesting across central NH into southern ME. 0z GFS is pushing warning amounts. Nam wasn't as interested, but the hrrr went wild. 

Little critter.

[shawnmov]

38 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

That’s 68” Over KBED with FIT LWM and ASH and MHT all at 60” + (& DAW)

 

I’ll take “things that ain’t happening” for $800 Alex!

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

The Thursday system is looking a little more interesting across central NH into southern ME. 0z GFS is pushing warning amounts. Nam wasn't as interested, but the hrrr went wild. 

It's a snowy pattern.  It wants to snow north of the gradient.  Another 5-7" for Mitch to Dendy to the ME crew?

[tunafish]

Holy shit!  I hadn't paid any attention to Thursday, focused on today and Friday night > Saturday.   Assumed Thursday was rain for me.  Whoa!

17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It's a snowy pattern.  It wants to snow north of the gradient.  Another 5-7" for Mitch to Dendy to the ME crew?

 

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

It's a snowy pattern.  It wants to snow north of the gradient.  Another 5-7" for Mitch to Dendy to the ME crew?

Trend that a little south please

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, wx2fish said:

The Thursday system is looking a little more interesting across central NH into southern ME. 0z GFS is pushing warning amounts. Nam wasn't as interested, but the hrrr went wild. 

please define central new hampshire 

[Torch Tiger]

7 hours ago, powderfreak said:

They are.  The worst part of it is nearby is a solid meteorology program (Jim Cantore type alumni and some board members) and those weather weenies are forced to study in a place that can be tough for snow at times.  It is a cold climate though, just suffers during the big east wind events.  They've had some good deform bands though in the past decade I feel like.  Going from Central VT through MPV to 1V4 (Saint Johnsbury).  But you know those model progs get the weather students chapped .

I remember my walk-through at Lyndon, noticable snow-hole.  Even south into NH had snow OTG.  Skied Burke though and it was solid (Feb 95)

Funny that PSC/PSU and LSC are both in snow-holes though.

[jbenedet]

Lol at the 2m temp guidance for this morning.

Today is going to be nicest day in a while. 
Coupled with full march sun. Packs gonna take a beating today.

Was too lazy to clean to car off this morning—parked it in the sun towards the front…already doing its work.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Low of 18° this morning.

[CoastalWx]

Looks pretty quiet after Saturday  for awhile. We’ll see what after the 10th does. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Oh there's a large signal beyond the 10th. 

In fact, the night's ens means are now detecting.  

[ORH_wxman]

30 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh there's a large signal beyond the 10th. 

In fact, the night's ens means are now detecting.  

EPS is honking....GEFS coming around, but a little less robust on the signal. GEFS is also more like 3/13ish rather than 3/11 on the EPS

 

Anyways. here's the EPS....quite a signal for 10 days out.

 

 

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Lol at the 2m temp guidance for this morning.

Today is going to be nicest day in a while. 
Coupled with full march sun. Packs gonna take a beating today.

Was too lazy to clean to car off this morning—parked it in the sun towards the front…already doing its work.

Trivial note but me too. heh.  Yesterday, at around 1:30 pm, it was still snowing but in classic spring form, the sky was really day glowing with the power of the sun... That looked that way without there even being a dim orb.  It just was bright, and the car had actually glopped itself clear in the windows with beads of sweat running down.   It made snow removal a non-issue. 

Today is likely to have a great "nape" affect  - where no wind in full sun at this time of year creates this cocoon of fragile warmth.   It's really quite redeeming when conditions afford that during an otherwise tired winter and exhausted patience time of year. For me anyway -

I mean, cook up a blockbuster and I'm happy to pull the hypocrite's immunity card and go all in..but, those are relatively rare. Most years, I tend to check out by this time. 

Luckily... in about 10 days, there's a whopper signal.  If this was back in my Eastern days, ... unconstrained for my visions, I would have started a thread already ...replete with index modalities.

[SnoSki14]

39 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh there's a large signal beyond the 10th. 

In fact, the night's ens means are now detecting.  

Any chance for a real coastal track? 

[Snowcrazed71]

4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Any chance for a real coastal track? 

There's always a chance!! And there is a signal. So the chances real

[MJO812]

[TheMainer]

15 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

I’ll be in N. Maine that weekend, so lock it in for sure. Leaving Friday the 10th, be back Tuesday the 14th. 

We're saddle bagging from the house to the Northern Door in Ft Kent for a 3 dayer that Friday through Sunday, back through the woods via St John River and Churchill dam, hoping for a whiff for sure cause we'll already be pushing it on fuel Sunday!

Could be a really good March for snowmobiling, our trails are in great shape, will be better after we get this storm and Thursday groomed out. Hoping we can ride from the house til March 24th like a normal year since it started so late. 

[Lava Rock]

Just now, TheMainer said:

We're saddle bagging from the house to the Northern Door in Ft Kent for a 3 dayer that Friday through Sunday, back through the woods via St John River and Churchill dam, hoping for a whiff for sure cause we'll already be pushing it on fuel Sunday!

Could be a really good March for snowmobiling, our trails are in great shape, will be better after we get this storm and Thursday groomed out. Hoping we can ride from the house til March 24th like a normal year since it started so late. 

Heading to Monticello friday till next thurs. Should be able to rack up near 1000mi.

[CoastalWx]

Might be some snow this evening near the MA/NH border on north, and then something more widespread late tonight and tomorrow for CNE? Maybe some thunder in southern areas too.

 

Mild day today.

[mahk_webstah]

I mean I know we get excited by the biggies, but do we still have a possible overperformer for some tonight/tomorrow?  I've notice Wunderground has me at 2.9".

Also, btw, it is increasing the next storm as well, giving me 9.9, up from the 7-8 range yesterday.

[Typhoon Tip]

Little critter. They do tend to slip awareness.

It’s legit for CNE and points N. 

It’s been in the guidance as a ‘non-photogenic’ feature all along for Mar 2 … systems need more traditional glam to capture attention.  It’s like why good looking people tend to go farther in life haha  

But Will and I had marked this one for monitoring a few days ago… as the high school guidance councilors we are … as a troubled loner spending a lot of time in “munitions quarterly”

 

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Little critter. They do tend to slip awareness.

It’s legit for CNE and points N. 

It’s been in the guidance as a ‘non-photogenic’ feature all along for Mar 2 … systems need more traditional glam to capture attention.  It’s like why good looking people tend to go farther in life haha  

But Will and I had marked this one for monitoring a few days ago… as the high school guidance councilors we are … as a troubled loner spending a lot of time in “munitions quarterly”

 

temps are warming today, so I'm assuming the mid and upper levels look good?  32/24 here now, and it is pretty early.

[jbenedet]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Trivial note but me too. heh.  Yesterday, at around 1:30 pm, it was still snowing but in classic spring form, the sky was really day glowing with the power of the sun... That looked that way without there even being a dim orb.  It just was bright, and the car had actually glopped itself clear in the windows with beads of sweat running down.   It made snow removal a non-issue. 

Today is likely to have a great "nape" affect  - where no wind in full sun at this time of year creates this cocoon of fragile warmth.   It's really quite redeeming when conditions afford that during an otherwise tired winter and exhausted patience time of year. For me anyway -

I mean, cook up a blockbuster and I'm happy to pull the hypocrite's immunity card and go all in..but, those are relatively rare. Most years, I tend to check out by this time. 

Luckily... in about 10 days, there's a whopper signal.  If this was back in my Eastern days, ... unconstrained for my visions, I would have started a thread already ...replete with index modalities.

I'm not really feelin' it. At least not yet.

The GEFS are strongly pointing to a resurgence to a +NAO regime. 

The MJO signal to phase 8 is quite strong around that time frame, but does not at all align with the EPS depiction.

Therefore I believe the GEFS has a better handle on that timeframe than the EPS currently, and you're going to see the latter trend toward to former, which is more "equal chances" than gang-busters.

[SnoSki14]

21 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

I'm not really feelin' it. At least not yet.

The GEFS are strongly pointing to a resurgence to a +NAO regime. 

The MJO signal to phase 8 is quite strong around that time frame, but does not at all align with the EPS depiction.

Therefore I believe the GEFS has a better handle on that timeframe than the EPS currently, and you're going to see the latter trend toward to former, which is more "equal chances" than gang-busters.

The big storms happen when the NAO decays. The transition from - to + means there's likely going to be a storm somewhere 

The AO also follows and the PNA is trending upwards all while a high amplitude phase 8 is occurring. 

This doesn't guarantee a mid March KU by any means. We've seen how a seemingly favorable pattern in December failed to produce but chances are better than normal 

[jbenedet]

19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The big storms happen when the NAO decays. The transition from - to + means there's likely going to be a storm somewhere 

The AO also follows and the PNA is trending upwards all while a high amplitude phase 8 is occurring. 

This doesn't guarantee a mid March KU by any means. We've seen how a seemingly favorable pattern in December failed to produce but chances are better than normal 

I don't disagree. But again, to my original post "equal chances" in mid march, New england, is far from hostile.

[mahk_webstah]

I would prefer a faster decay, and for spring to really get going later this month after a 2 week about a real winter for all of us. But experience says that if the negative NAO really sets in west-based, it will not retreat that quickly, even if some models are showing it. But when it does retreat, It will be lovely.